TRUMP sez that with a cease-fire, the crisis is over.
Every State Department wonk, and every military mind, know how buttfuqued that thought is...
• Turkey is a member of NATO -- one that occupies a ferociously strategic piece of real estate, contested as far back as recorded history goes. In 1962, one of the lesser-publicized keys to de-escalating the Cuban Missile Crisis was the U.S. agreement to remove medium range nuclear-armed missiles from Turkish soil.
• Turkey has committed genocidal pogrom(s) 3(?) times in just the last 100 years.
• Turkey considers Kurdistan (and thus those who identify as Kurds wherever they reside) to be an existential threat, no matter the (lack of) provocation.
• As a member of NATO, Turkey recognizes and benefits from Article 5: mutual defense of any NATO member, by ALL NATO members.
• Turkey *had* purchased/helped to manufacture a bunch of F-35/parts...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...8a16be-54b6-11e9-8ef3-fbd41a2ce4d5_story.html
• ...and was kicked out of that program because of their purchase of Russian close-theater air defense systems -- complete with Moscovite SCADA to deliver live-time reads of F-35 reflections back to the rodina.
• This MASSIVE Erdogan move to turn from Washington/Brussels to Moscow cuts a massive hole right in the middle of NATO, both as an organization and geographically.
But it represents HUGE personal victories for the strongmen involved: Erdogan and Putin. Consider where they were just 4 years ago:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown
...and now they're swapping air defense tools? And ground assault comms, methods, and goals? (Vis, this "buffer zone" claimed by Turkey "and assisted by" Russia.) That's a great way to keep NATO battlefield comms secure. NOT. Holy schiezé.
• Iran, in the meantime, now has a undisguised path to route fighters and materiel all the way to the Mediterranean, Holy shit. So everywhere that they're involved, just got multiples of speed and surety-wise easier -- an insurgent superhighway was just created, on the backs of the Kurds who fought ISIS and nasty Houssaini/Ruski Syrians.
It can't get any worse, right?? BUT IT DOES. At this point, the easy scares are oil, transport, and Islamic extremism. But the MUCH bigger stake is the loss of NATO unity, for every minute that either Erdogan remains in power, or Turkey remains in NATO.
• If terror activity identifies Turkish assets are involved, who attacks Turkey?
• If Turkey and Russia have a tiff, and Turkey snubs Russia, does NATO get involved with any Russian retaliation?
• If US/allied F-35s or F-22s are painted by Russian radar in Turkish hands, and that threat is "kinetically" responded to, ........???
In the meantime, the Mediterranean and Black Seas (where the U.S. Navy has maintained a powerful presence since the close of WW2) JUST GOT a bit smaller, eh...
NONE OF THIS IS ANY GOOD, and yet I hear most pundits only getting about 2/3rds of the way through it. Meaning no insult to the Kurds, but this is not about them!!! This is about the cohesiveness of NATO, and the military dissuadement to a World War 3 commencing on the European continent.
Every State Department wonk, and every military mind, know how buttfuqued that thought is...
• Turkey is a member of NATO -- one that occupies a ferociously strategic piece of real estate, contested as far back as recorded history goes. In 1962, one of the lesser-publicized keys to de-escalating the Cuban Missile Crisis was the U.S. agreement to remove medium range nuclear-armed missiles from Turkish soil.
• Turkey has committed genocidal pogrom(s) 3(?) times in just the last 100 years.
• Turkey considers Kurdistan (and thus those who identify as Kurds wherever they reside) to be an existential threat, no matter the (lack of) provocation.
• As a member of NATO, Turkey recognizes and benefits from Article 5: mutual defense of any NATO member, by ALL NATO members.
• Turkey *had* purchased/helped to manufacture a bunch of F-35/parts...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...8a16be-54b6-11e9-8ef3-fbd41a2ce4d5_story.html
• ...and was kicked out of that program because of their purchase of Russian close-theater air defense systems -- complete with Moscovite SCADA to deliver live-time reads of F-35 reflections back to the rodina.
• This MASSIVE Erdogan move to turn from Washington/Brussels to Moscow cuts a massive hole right in the middle of NATO, both as an organization and geographically.
But it represents HUGE personal victories for the strongmen involved: Erdogan and Putin. Consider where they were just 4 years ago:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown
...and now they're swapping air defense tools? And ground assault comms, methods, and goals? (Vis, this "buffer zone" claimed by Turkey "and assisted by" Russia.) That's a great way to keep NATO battlefield comms secure. NOT. Holy schiezé.
• Iran, in the meantime, now has a undisguised path to route fighters and materiel all the way to the Mediterranean, Holy shit. So everywhere that they're involved, just got multiples of speed and surety-wise easier -- an insurgent superhighway was just created, on the backs of the Kurds who fought ISIS and nasty Houssaini/Ruski Syrians.
It can't get any worse, right?? BUT IT DOES. At this point, the easy scares are oil, transport, and Islamic extremism. But the MUCH bigger stake is the loss of NATO unity, for every minute that either Erdogan remains in power, or Turkey remains in NATO.
• If terror activity identifies Turkish assets are involved, who attacks Turkey?
• If Turkey and Russia have a tiff, and Turkey snubs Russia, does NATO get involved with any Russian retaliation?
• If US/allied F-35s or F-22s are painted by Russian radar in Turkish hands, and that threat is "kinetically" responded to, ........???
In the meantime, the Mediterranean and Black Seas (where the U.S. Navy has maintained a powerful presence since the close of WW2) JUST GOT a bit smaller, eh...
NONE OF THIS IS ANY GOOD, and yet I hear most pundits only getting about 2/3rds of the way through it. Meaning no insult to the Kurds, but this is not about them!!! This is about the cohesiveness of NATO, and the military dissuadement to a World War 3 commencing on the European continent.
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And at that point, Europe will have to ship/receive via The Cape Of Good Hope (or across the Atlantic, hey!) to get any commerce going.