we will see, dark. thanks for the thoughts.
surfer
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The Surf Report
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we will see, dark. thanks for the thoughts.
surfer
I wrote this morning on another thread that I had spoken yesterday to my oil connection. He said that now OPEC is a bit nervous of the price here although they wished for it. Most feel world economies might go into heavy recession at these prices and the price might drop too low with lack of demand. He quoted as $40 for right now being preferrable. Personally I sensed that they are a bit pissed in as much as they are not behind the recent jump. He also reiterated there is no shortage. " You pay the bucks and get a tanker" I was surprized that he felt sure Bush would be re-elected.
Big Al omits any distinction between ultimate supply and production capacity limit (i.e., "peak oil"). If you can't get it out of the ground fast enough to meet demand, lookout. Greenspan's job is to delay the pain for as long as possible by helping us delude ourselves as long as possible until reality can no longer be ignored. Just look at his monetary policy.
Quote from taodr:
You mean just like a few years back, we had to buy those tech stocks cause they are going to the moon and will never be cheaper ! How many months did Blodget say it would be before Qualcom would be over $1000 a share.
I mean the physical limit of production capacity of oil. Yes, the current price spike is speculative and short-term, but the long-term trend for oil is bullish due to physical limits in the rate of extraction (not the amount of reserves). Comparing stocks to commodities is asinine.
flat the djia and short oil into monday. averaging into the oil trade.
surfer
surfer
BUSH FUTURES BEING MANIPULATED There is now no question whatsoever
that the Bush re-election futures contract at Tradesports.com is being
manipulated. Yesterday the price of the futures were sold down from
about 55 (indicating the market's estimate of a 55% probability of
Bush's re-election) to 10 (indicating on a 10% probability) with a
single 10,000-lot order entered by a single trader. An order that size
represents twice the normal volume of an entire typical day's trading.
Within moments after the order was completed, the price recovered back
to the low-mid-50's.
According to sources at Tradesports, yesterday's order was entered by
the same individual who has heavily sold the Bush futures three times
over the past month. The first instance was on September 14, when this
trader sold the futures down from the mid-60's to 49.6. The second
instance was in the middle of the second presidential debate on October
8, when the futures were sold down from the high 50's to 51.5. The third
instance was right after the third presidential debate on October13. As
the debate began the futures were priced at 57, and by the end of the
debate they had risen to 60. Then a few moments later they were beaten
down to 54 in a matter of minutes.
In markets this kind of behavior is called a "speculative attack." The
idea is not to sell at the highest price possible -- the normal
profit-maximizing strategy of a typical seller. Rather, the idea is to
use one's selling to deliberately cause prices to fall. Why would any
sane trader try on purpose to sell at low prices? In some cases it is in
order to panic other traders into selling at even lower prices, so the
attacker can buy back what he sold at a profit -- traders call that a
"bear raid." But in a speculative attack the motive is more complicated.
It is to cause people in the real world -- not just other traders -- to
panic.
The classic example of a speculative attack is when George Soros
massively shorted the British pound in September, 1992. The Bank of
England was obliged to support the pound's exchange rate under the
European Exchange Rate Mechanism. With the pound plunging and the BoE
pouring billions into supporting it, prospects for the British economy
were damaged -- making the pound even weaker. Eventually the BoE
exhausted its will to support the pound , and had to pull out of the
ERM. The pound collapsed -- and Soros is said to have made a billion
dollars on this speculative attack.
It's all based on what Soros has often written about as his "theory of
reflexivity." It's when financial markets affect the real world, and
then the real world in turn affects financial markets. It's a vicious
cycle set in motion on purpose. Here's a speculation of a different
sort: could Soros be behind the manipulation of the Tradesports Bush
futures? The amounts of money involved are pocket change to Soros. And
it would fit his avowed intention to unseat the President. It would be a
cheap way for Soros to damage Bush's credibility and panic his troops. I
have no idea whether Soros is behind this or not. But it would fit.
donald luskin--10.16
that the Bush re-election futures contract at Tradesports.com is being
manipulated. Yesterday the price of the futures were sold down from
about 55 (indicating the market's estimate of a 55% probability of
Bush's re-election) to 10 (indicating on a 10% probability) with a
single 10,000-lot order entered by a single trader. An order that size
represents twice the normal volume of an entire typical day's trading.
Within moments after the order was completed, the price recovered back
to the low-mid-50's.
According to sources at Tradesports, yesterday's order was entered by
the same individual who has heavily sold the Bush futures three times
over the past month. The first instance was on September 14, when this
trader sold the futures down from the mid-60's to 49.6. The second
instance was in the middle of the second presidential debate on October
8, when the futures were sold down from the high 50's to 51.5. The third
instance was right after the third presidential debate on October13. As
the debate began the futures were priced at 57, and by the end of the
debate they had risen to 60. Then a few moments later they were beaten
down to 54 in a matter of minutes.
In markets this kind of behavior is called a "speculative attack." The
idea is not to sell at the highest price possible -- the normal
profit-maximizing strategy of a typical seller. Rather, the idea is to
use one's selling to deliberately cause prices to fall. Why would any
sane trader try on purpose to sell at low prices? In some cases it is in
order to panic other traders into selling at even lower prices, so the
attacker can buy back what he sold at a profit -- traders call that a
"bear raid." But in a speculative attack the motive is more complicated.
It is to cause people in the real world -- not just other traders -- to
panic.
The classic example of a speculative attack is when George Soros
massively shorted the British pound in September, 1992. The Bank of
England was obliged to support the pound's exchange rate under the
European Exchange Rate Mechanism. With the pound plunging and the BoE
pouring billions into supporting it, prospects for the British economy
were damaged -- making the pound even weaker. Eventually the BoE
exhausted its will to support the pound , and had to pull out of the
ERM. The pound collapsed -- and Soros is said to have made a billion
dollars on this speculative attack.
It's all based on what Soros has often written about as his "theory of
reflexivity." It's when financial markets affect the real world, and
then the real world in turn affects financial markets. It's a vicious
cycle set in motion on purpose. Here's a speculation of a different
sort: could Soros be behind the manipulation of the Tradesports Bush
futures? The amounts of money involved are pocket change to Soros. And
it would fit his avowed intention to unseat the President. It would be a
cheap way for Soros to damage Bush's credibility and panic his troops. I
have no idea whether Soros is behind this or not. But it would fit.
donald luskin--10.16
Surf, People laugh off that maybe Soros is manipulating the markets but if you talk to brokers that have been around they say definitely it is him
Another thing I don't have Greenspans oil speech on friday but I am sure I heard him say "The high oil price IS AN ATTACK ON AMERICAN CONSUMER". From this I believe they know who is forcing the price and of course others jump in on momentum.
Another thing I don't have Greenspans oil speech on friday but I am sure I heard him say "The high oil price IS AN ATTACK ON AMERICAN CONSUMER". From this I believe they know who is forcing the price and of course others jump in on momentum.
Quote from taodr:
...
Another thing I don't have Greenspans oil speech on friday but I am sure I heard him say "The high oil price IS AN ATTACK ON AMERICAN CONSUMER". From this I believe they know who is forcing the price and of course others jump in on momentum.
I didn't hear him saying anthing like that;
"In summary, much of world oil supplies reside in potentially volatile areas of the world. Improving technology is reducing the energy intensity of industrial countries, and presumably recent oil price increases will accelerate the pace of displacement of energy-intensive production facilities."
more like he just brush the whole thing off. http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200410152/default.htm
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