The Surf Report

marketsurfer · Oct 12, 2004

potential slamming.

looks like our DJIA longs may get slammed this morning.

here is the strategy--- if we gap back into the channel, will wait 9 minutes, mark low of these nine minutes, this is the stop level.

if we do not gap down back into into the channel, the upper channel figure of 10033 becomes our stop level in the cash index.

staying alive,

surfer
:eek:

marketsurfer · Oct 12, 2004

we are FLAT here. 10033 broken. will trade channel today with 10033 upper level.

surfer

Wittgenstein · Oct 12, 2004

Quote from Wittgenstein:

Maybe you should CHANGE your position to the opposite: short DJ - long oil?

I told you so.

lastick · Oct 12, 2004

Quote from Wittgenstein:

I told you so.

Going to be the Witt report

taodr · Oct 12, 2004

Governments around the world have been scrambling to boost their oil supplies, being nervous that terrorism in Saudi Arabia or elswhere will cut off oil supplies. IMHO pretty soon these same governments will decide they have enough or the price will bring lasting damage to their economies and they will stop filling their reserves. Consequently there will be a stampede to sell by speculators.

marketsurfer · Oct 12, 2004

Quote from taodr:

Governments around the world have been scrambling to boost their oil supplies, being nervous that terrorism in Saudi Arabia or elswhere will cut off oil supplies. IMHO pretty soon these same governments will decide they have enough or the price will bring lasting damage to their economies and they will stop filling their reserves. Consequently there will be a stampede to sell by speculators.

yes, excellent commentary.

surfer

darkhorse · Oct 12, 2004

Quote from taodr:

Governments around the world have been scrambling to boost their oil supplies, being nervous that terrorism in Saudi Arabia or elswhere will cut off oil supplies. IMHO pretty soon these same governments will decide they have enough or the price will bring lasting damage to their economies and they will stop filling their reserves. Consequently there will be a stampede to sell by speculators.

Yes indeed, or perhaps crude will slough along sideways until China revalues the Yuan without warning and the USD hits an air pocket, helping crude (primarily priced in dollars) catch a $10 bid, which quickly becomes a $20 bid as all the "it's got to fall" players get mercilessly squeezed.

Not to say this will definitely happen, or even that it is favored to happen... only that if the scenario is obvious it's probably priced in, which is why pot odds for an obvious scenario are rarely worth taking.

jmho

patsup · Oct 12, 2004

Quote from Wittgenstein:

Good idea. Why not just follow the trend? "Well, it's a bull market, you know"...(Livermore).

Quote from Wittgenstein:

P.S. Maybe you should your position to the opposite: short DJ - long oil?

So is it a bull market or not?

Walther · Oct 12, 2004

Quote from taodr:

Governments around the world have been scrambling to boost their oil supplies, being nervous that terrorism in Saudi Arabia or elswhere will cut off oil supplies. IMHO pretty soon these same governments will decide they have enough or the price will bring lasting damage to their economies and they will stop filling their reserves. Consequently there will be a stampede to sell by speculators.

Question is When this will happen .

taodr · Oct 12, 2004

Quote from Walther:

Question is When this will happen .

Probably sooner rather than later. What I was told when oil was around 15 to 20, some of the Euro govs where backing out of pre arranged deals. In other words if they agreed on 20, they were trying to renogotiate lower, chop the price down before payment. Now payment is required by most suppliers before delivery and they are the one's demanding higher prices from the same governments that tried to screw them.