The Surf Report

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

only the down TL is drawn incorrectly IMHO! It should be drawn through August 2nd. Thus.... if you did it that way.... one could now interpret the chart as "we are looking for a re-test of a break of a two-point TL on Dow at or near 1025 before continuing a move higher... or not"!

(regards m/surfer)


Ice

verrryy interesting...

Ice

 

[Free Thinker]

maybe arch ment oil was going to crash. not the stock market.

14:26 ET Crude in freefall, plunging 4% on the day to $43.40... Major indices move to new session highs :

 

[iceman1]

Quote from ZZZzzzzzzz:

Dow could easily correct here. Many individual DOW charts are not all that great.

with crackerjack charting like this... and projections as good as gold (of a correction) who needs a reliable dartboard!! Yep... !!

Where do I subscribe?!


Ice

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from iceman1:

with crackerjack charting like this... and projections as good as gold (of a correction) who needs a reliable dartboard!! Yep... !!

Where do I subscribe?!


Ice

remember, we have untill 9.7 for me to admit defeat......

surfer

 

[Free Thinker]

Quote from marketsurfer:

remember, we have until 9.7 for me to admit defeat......

surfer

are we fighting the market? surely you wouldn't stay short till 9/7 based on something a guy saw in the stars.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from vhehn:

are we fighting the market? surely you wouldn't stay short till 9/7 based on something a guy saw in the stars.

that would be my take also.

besides even if "arch crawford" is correct on occasion who can say that this time he doesn't miss it big or misses by 4-6 months! It is an election year so doubtful we'll fall as much as he expects, soon. Even joe granville and "whatshername".... got it right..... ONCE! And good olde Prechter was looking for that same tsunami for like what 10+++ years before it finally hit...

Sure we could now go lower... but enough to justify the upside risk of loss against shorts... and all without doubling/averaging a loser ... ???

Who knows... we will see!

I did add a few October puts on NDX near eod ... but I'm short front month otm puts also.

Ice

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from vhehn:

are we fighting the market? surely you wouldn't stay short till 9/7 based on something a guy saw in the stars.

absolutely not. my shorts have nothing to do with arch's call. yes, it is tough here, very tough--- its a time stop not a dollar stop-and yes, i potentially will take a hit.

surfer

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from iceman1:

that would be my take also.

besides even if "arch crawford" is correct on occasion who can say that this time he doesn't miss it big or misses by 4-6 months! It is an election year so doubtful we'll fall as much as he expects, soon. Even joe granville and "whatshername".... got it right..... ONCE! And good olde Prechter was looking for that same tsunami for like what 10+++ years before it finally hit...

Sure we could now go lower... but enough to justify the upside risk of loss against shorts... and all without doubling/averaging a loser ... ???

Who knows... we will see!

I did add a few October puts on NDX near eod ... but I'm short front month otm puts also.




Ice

thanks ice. yes, we will see. yes, i have added substantially to my shorts on the way up. this is still a very strong short signal in my research---

best,

surfer

 

[Sigsbee]

08-20-04 10:18 PM
still short and adding
i added to my short position today, taking on the maximum allowable risk in the position. as they say, i am FULLY short at this time. September 5th appears to be the critical date at this price / time juncture.

***************************

MarketSurfer -

I wonder if you know what the astro basis is for Crawford's outlook is ? Do you know by chance ?

Fwiw, not that I know a lot about astro-trading (and I don't, but I am trying to learn it), I'm told that Mercury currently is retrograde since 8/10/04, and will go direct on 9/3/04 after typical 1 day stationing. As you may know, supposedly the market often reacts to transitions like that. This timing would be consistent with your 9/5 date.

This may have nothing to do with Crawford's outlook, but I thought I'd simply mention it.

Maybe there are some other closet astro traders that might comment, at the risk of certain ridicule.

-- Sigsbee

 

[pisspotpete]

Good luck Surfer!


All alone at the end of the of the evening
And the bright lights have faded to blue
I was thinking 'bout a woman who might have
Loved me and I never knew
You know I've always been a dreamer
(spent my life running 'round)
And it's so hard to change
(Can't seem to settle down)
But the dreams I've seen lately
Keep on turning out and burning out
And turning out the same

So put me on a highway
And show me a sign
And take it to the limit one more time

You can spend all your time making money
You can spend all your love making time
If it all fell to pieces tomorrow
Would you still be mine?

And when you're looking for your freedom
(Nobody seems to care)
And you can't find the door
(Can't find it anywhere)
When there's nothing to believe in
Still you're coming back, you're running back
for more

So put me on a highway
And show me a sign
And take it to the limit one more time

Take it to the limit
Take it to the limit
Take it to the limit one more time