The Surf Report

[hoodooman]

With my luck with TA and FA, I just can't imagine the possibility that a trading strategy exists where one could determine the end of a strong uptrend in an index of stocks, when each stock is nearly mutually independent of the other and the direction of the index as a whole is also strongly influenced by daily financial and other global news. Moreover, I've never seen anyone who could do it consistently. But I'll keep an open mind and continue monitoring your thread.

Best Regards

 

[ARogueTrader]

The trend ends when no new money can come in.

Lots of money is flowing in right now, and going right into stocks. It is a matter of time.

When the momentum fades, serious profit taking will happen.

However, going short before we run out of gas is dangerous, much more dangerous than picking a bottom.

Quote from hoodooman:

With my luck with TA and FA, I just can't imagine the possibility that a trading strategy exists where one could determine the end of a strong uptrend in an index of stocks, when each stock is nearly mutually independent of the other and the direction of the index as a whole is also strongly influenced by daily financial and other global news. Moreover, I've never seen anyone who could do it consistently. But I'll keep an open mind and continue monitoring your thread.

Best Regards

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from hoodooman:

With my luck with TA and FA, I just can't imagine the possibility that a trading strategy exists where one could determine the end of a strong uptrend in an index of stocks, when each stock is nearly mutually independent of the other and the direction of the index as a whole is also strongly influenced by daily financial and other global news. Moreover, I've never seen anyone who could do it consistently. But I'll keep an open mind and continue monitoring your thread.

Best Regards

hoodoo,

as you know, this is not my typical SYSTEM trade. i have reasons that compelled me to short outside of the my classic index program / system.

in regards to your comments on the index being difficult to forecast, quantum physics teaches that directional changes in groups of objects, as a group, is easier to forsee than individual objects. i apply this reasoning to my analysis of the index.

hope you are staying warm, had to cancel my meeting with vic's group in nyc this evening. not sure if you are attending.

best,

surfer

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from ARogueTrader:

The trend ends when no new money can come in.

.

When the momentum fades, serious profit taking will happen.

However, going short before we run out of gas is dangerous, much more dangerous than picking a bottom.

agree with rouge on this point. it is dangerous, however i have compelling reasons to stay short here.

best,

surfer

 

[omcate]

Quote from marketsurfer:

it is dangerous, however i have compelling reasons to stay short here.

best,

surfer

Hi,

I hope you are right. I wrote 50 contracts of QQQ uncovered calls. All of them are in the money now. If QQQ goes up for another three or four days in a row, I have to say "uncle" and cut the loss.

 

[hoodooman]

I think that you are right about groups being more predictable. For example the laws of fluid dynamics, in particular are a prime example of that.

But as a physicist, I've had a lot more success in predicting the effects of fluid flows than I ever have in the stock market.

Very cold here on the OBX. No invitation to Niederhoffer's for the hoodooman.

My best regards

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from hoodooman:

I think that you are right about groups being more predictable. For example the laws of fluid dynamics, in particular are a prime example of that.

But as a physicist, I've had a lot more success in predicting the effects of fluid flows than I ever have in the stock market.

Very cold here on the OBX. No invitation to Niederhoffer's for the hoodooman.

My best regards

hoodoo,

thought you were in new jersey.

take care and stay warm !

surfer

 

[Free Thinker]

Quote from omcate:

Hi,

I hope you are right. I wrote 50 contracts of QQQ uncovered calls. All of them are in the money now. If QQQ goes up for another three or four days in a row, I have to say "uncle" and cut the loss.

imho writing naked calls is just about the worst possible thing to do in this market. first of all the volitility is so low you get peanuts for premium and you open yourself up to tiny gains in exchange for unlimited losses.

 

[bobcathy1]

Surf, everyone in the chat I am in is short too. You are not alone in this by any stretch. I am short ER2, I think that is going to lead the parade this time. We are all rooting for you!

GO SURF

 

[Scientist]

Quote from bobcathy1:

Surf, everyone in the chat I am in is short too. You are not alone in this by any stretch. I am short ER2, I think that is going to lead the parade this time. We are all rooting for you!

GO SURF

Ironically I just went through my "auto-sort" folders and addresses in my Outlook, and realized that I have both "David Goodboy" and "marketsurfer" folders, in my symptomatically chaotic fashion. While on second thought clearly redundant, I think it does reflect a good deal of enthusiasm.