The Surf Report

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from Fast_Trader:

Good job man! I think the 1045 was a pretty obvious short. The Doji at 13:00 on the 60 min. chart should have been a good "heads-up" to get a short order ready. Another weak sign to me was the up-move on declining volume. A very low-risk trade IMO. Your entry was just good, but your exit was DAMN GOOD! :D

-Fast
More...
Thanks, Fast! The reasons for that short were plentiful indeed. Let's list a few:

- Major pivot hit at 46.25
- The doji indeed. But you can use bars, too...
- More so than the doji was the fact that the 13:15 candle (15m chart) was a significant pivot time several days in a row now (the market has memory), did you notice? :)
- Subsequent lower highs and lower lows
- Decreasing volume on upmove
- Average daily range more than attained (!)
- Larger TF trend was clearly down
- Major trendline for the day was broken (13:20)

Overall, reasons to short plentiful. The fact that most people would have seen at least one or two of these things is what made it low-risk. After all, the market is a people thing...

Find attached what I was looking at. I don't use any indicators (anymore) - No surprise - As if all those pivots and trendlines aren't more than enough mess... :eek:

Scientist :)
 

Attachments

at 1031...still holding the remainder for a break of the 1029.75 ES price level (LOD from 10/28) for a ride into no-mans land. I will hold over the weekend most likely while out here in Vegas enjoying the Trade Expo!

Good Fortunes!

Chris
 
surf, could you just clean up your inbox once in a decade? You PM me, I can never reply!

You can just just back up all your PM's from ET and save them on your computer BTW!

Best,
~S
 
Quote from Scientist:

surf, could you just clean up your inbox once in a decade? You PM me, I can never reply!

You can just just back up all your PM's from ET and save them on your computer BTW!

Best,
~S
More...

I never have probl of PM him via ET.
 
Just did an ADD of 20% to my ES SHORT at 1036.75. Will now call it a day and go to the Expo and hold this position going into the weekend.

Chris

BTW, still looking for 1029.75 test either today or Monday.
 
I mentioned a study I did on retracements in the S&P this year - since I've done the work, I figured that I might as well share it. :)

If you accept that the history suggests that a strong Oct YTD is followed by a positive Oct-Dec then this current pullback (6 days old) has a strong probability of being a retracement rather than a break.

If so, it's worth studying precedental retracements - which this year have exhibited surprising consistency (see picture).

"share and enjoy"
 

Attachments

Quote from AMT4SWA:

Just did an ADD of 20% to my ES SHORT at 1036.75. Will now call it a day and go to the Expo and hold this position going into the weekend.

Chris

BTW, still looking for 1029.75 test either today or Monday.
More...
Chris, hell of a call at the pivot, you beat me to it!

I'm short since 36.25, stops just above HOD (37.50/5T)
Taking 1/2 off at 34.50, then:
1st target: 33.50
2nd target: 31.00
3rd ... probably below 30 I'd say... See how we go...

Have a nice one at the expo!
Scientist.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top