The Surf Report

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Quote from BlueHorseshoe:




FWIW, I share your pessimism w/ the economy, but I don't think the market is going to go down and stay down, at least not until sometime next year. But that is a longer argument ... and, as you said, your convictions cannot be cracked anyway.
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Agreed, the Bush administration (and any administration would do the same) will do ALL in their power to postpone the day of reckoning until after the election. Otherwise they are out of office.

g
 
Hi there Surf (I like your work),

Thought I'd drop in on your thread and mention this.

I recently made the following analysis on the S&P going back to 1950

a) if Oct 31 YTD price performance >10%
b) what is the price performance of Oct 31 to Dec 31

The results are not pretty - heavily skewed towards a strong year end with no instances of a heavy decline.

Of course this analysis does not cover temporary corrections that will allow your shorts to be covered at a profit, but just thought I'd give some historical perspective.

Cheers and stay strong.
 
Of course the market is not going to go down and stay down...but it sure in heck will go up-down up-down up-down!
For the ES we have 3 recent examples,

9/19 to 9/30 1039.00 to 987.75 (51.25 point drop)

10/15 to 10/24 1055.75 to 1016.25 (39.50 point drop)

11/07 to 11/11 1064.50 to 1041.50 (23.00 point drop)

No one was able to stop these pullbacks of the S&P 500, not even Bush. Just normal market cycles that are another aspect of trading in which you can make money from...that is all...nothing special. :)

Chris
 
Hey,

Coincidentally I did that analysis too recently and it's pinned up on my wall :)

From Mar to Nov 2003, there were 6 significant peak to troughs bear corrections, btw 7 to 16 days in a bear campaign of abt 40-50pts decline.
 
for those interested,

here is the underlying data for the Oct 31 YTD vs Oct 31 to Dec 31 comparison of price performance in the S&P 500.

It's an interesting time period to study, I think, because it starts to capture how the market looks back at the YTD and then proceeds forth at a critical time in the year, when tax trades start to get made and portfolios get reallocated.

"share and enjoy"
 

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Quote from TheStudent:

I recently made the following analysis on the S&P going back to 1950

a) if Oct 31 YTD price performance >10%
b) what is the price performance of Oct 31 to Dec 31

The results are not pretty - heavily skewed towards a strong year end with no instances of a heavy decline.
More...

This year has gone contrary to seasonality for a while now -- don't know how many times I saw them mention on the tube about how September and October are the worst months to be invested etc.

Now soon the very same people will be chirping about how it's seasonally "correct" to be long the market in Nov and Dec . . . FWIW :)
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

Of course the market is not going to go down and stay down...but it sure in heck will go up-down up-down up-down!
For the ES we have 3 recent examples,

9/19 to 9/30 1039.00 to 987.75 (51.25 point drop)

10/15 to 10/24 1055.75 to 1016.25 (39.50 point drop)

11/07 to 11/11 1064.50 to 1041.50 (23.00 point drop)

No one was able to stop these pullbacks of the S&P 500, not even Bush. Just normal market cycles that are another aspect of trading in which you can make money from...that is all...nothing special. :)

Chris
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Do you trade ES intraday?
 
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