The Surf Report
- Thread starter marketsurfer
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thanks for the encouragement and words of wisdom. yes, i am suffering with the shorts here. still holding at this time, as i must trust the analysis.
surfer
surfer
staying short at this time. my model is still screaming SELL despite the recent adverse excursion. we have been short since 10.30 and continuing to feed the postions. this is not a standard "surfer system" trade. long GMH and short BBI
best,
surfer
best,
surfer
"Chinese Water Torture
Itâs not easy being a bear these days. In a market that seems to want to go up on a daily basis, regardless of the news of the day, bears like us are being subjected to a type of Chinese Water Torture: the constant drip, drip, drip of the market going up⦠and upâ¦and up.
We feel strongly that we are ultimately right, yet the market is bent on trying to prove the bears and the economy-naysayers presently wrong.
Doubtless, most of you have heard our shtick before and some of you may be wondering why we donât just cave and accept the recovery and the new bull market as being here to stay. Herd mentality can be a powerful force, but we refuse to succumb to it.
Call us masochists if you will, but our will and convictions are too strong to be cracked by torture! Besides, the markets have an uncanny ability of eventually proving the herd wrong."*
*link to full article: http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=4967422
Loaded up with ES SHORTS towards the end of the trading day, and holding overnight and most likely into next week for a retracement play. I like what I see on the "Daily" charts for the ES for going into these SHORTS. I will most likely do some ADD's to my position tomorrow if we push the 1060 area for the ES. Time will tell...I absolutely love this trading $hit! 
Chris
Chris
I don't know ... perhaps you, and Surf-dude, are part of the herd? Is that not within the realm of possibilities? We have found the herd, and it is US! By definition herds are conditioned over time to think alike. Some would argue that the last three years has conditioned, or re-conditioned, a new herd to always be bearish, even in the face of contradictory facts.
As for "our will and convictions are too strong to be cracked by torture! " perhaps not. But might they be cracked by margin calls? Your 'will and convictions' are not being wracked by torture but by the fact of the market, which takes it's due every day. It just feels like torture.
FWIW, I share your pessimism w/ the economy, but I don't think the market is going to go down and stay down, at least not until sometime next year. But that is a longer argument ... and, as you said, your convictions cannot be cracked anyway.
The herd is Wall Street induced, and the percentage of shorts are almost always in the minority. I believe it is harder to find a top and be patient than find a bottom to invest in and ride out the normal stormy seas.
I shared surf's position to buy pre-war, as history was behind a major rally coming off that fear based low, coupled with an election year coming up.
I am not currently short (the article was a reprint from a hedge fund who is short) nor do I think it is wise to take that risk, but who knows?
The difficult in shorting is trying to gage when the serious round of profit taking will occur. It is profit taking, not short selling that will drive the market back down.
If you took the most bearish period over since 2000, you would never find a majority of shorts versus those holding longs.
Bear raids are often attempts to shake people out of profitable positions....and there are some hellish profits sitting in open positions. An investor should never lose sight of the games that Wall Street plays to run the market up and down, as they sell at the top and buy at the bottom.
It is not uncommon to see a new year usher in a new wave of strategy, sector rotation, profit taking, etc.
Those who wait until Jan 04 to take profits...save themselves over a year before there are taxes to pay on those profits.
For an interesting read, look at this:
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=4967512
Quote from AMT4SWA:
Loaded up with ES SHORTS towards the end of the trading day, and holding overnight and most likely into next week for a retracement play. I like what I see on the "Daily" charts for the ES for going into these SHORTS. I will most likely do some ADD's to my position tomorrow if we push the 1060 area for the ES. Time will tell...I absolutely love this trading $hit!
Chris
spoken like true gambler time will tell if you last
Quote from LongShot:
spoken like true gambler time will tell if you last
you are very mistaken.
trading is not gambling.
amt has based his trade decision on the fact that the market is overbought on daily charts.
HE IS RIGHT!
so i guess you will either be long and holding on the way down or just out of the market all together huh?
LOL.
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