The Surf Report

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Some of you guys have trouble reading so we'll keep it simple.

NO MORE PERSONAL ATTACKS. Capiche?

No more moderation discussion in this thread. If you have a question or a complaint send it to me, but off-topic posts will be removed.

C2 discussion is dead. Let it go.

Stay on the topic of trading. Again, if you don't like surf's calls then don't trade them. Or better yet, fade them and then maybe go laughing all the way to the bank. After which come back here and post the trading blotter of your brilliant faded calls.
 
Quote from EPrado:

Your welcome. The term came from the fact that the guy who lost this type of bet was most likely to go to the nearest bridge and jump. Not sure if that ever actually happened.

Its kind of nuts, but you see these bets a lot on harness races /trotters. Which to me is even more nuts because trotters tend to go off stride/finssh off the board more than than thoroughbreds. Way more risky in my opinion.

I know a few guys who bet horses for a living...and do well. To them finding a race where there is a "bad ' favorite is the key. They then get great value on horses who are overlayed big time. But they are beyond patient and wait for these plays to come up.....kind of like a trader who waits out for the best opportunity/set up.
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i know nothing about this business, but understand this is the best book ever written on the subject:
http://www.amazon.com/Secrets-Professional-Turf-Betting-Bacon/dp/068513752X

by the way, i am name checked right next to JWH and the big man in Covel's trend book (among the top selling market books of all time)---plus thanked profusely in another trend book on page xvii: http://books.google.com/books?id=ii...esult&ct=result&resnum=1#v=onepage&q=&f=false among many other accolades.......

just wanting to set the record straight

surf:D
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

i know nothing about this business, but understand this is the best book ever written on the subject:
http://www.amazon.com/Secrets-Professional-Turf-Betting-Bacon/dp/068513752X

by the way, i am name checked right next to JWH and the big man in Covel's trend book (among the top selling market books of all time)---plus thanked profusely in another trend book on page xvii: http://books.google.com/books?id=ii...esult&ct=result&resnum=1#v=onepage&q=&f=false among many other accolades.......

just wanting to set the record straight

surf:D
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I was gonna say ......where in the hell did you find that book????

Then I saw the price. Yes, it is one of the best (if not all time best) books ever written about horse racing/betting. One of the hedge fund managers I traded for years ago had me read the book. Seeing how I am a huge horse racing fan it was a very quick read. I think all traders would enjoy the book. A LOT of stuff in there that correlates to trading bigtime. I wouldn't mind getting a copy for myself, but it's impossible to find. Thanks for the link Surf...good find.


As far as you being famous or not? I am refraining from that whole thing anymore. I will now only post a YAY or BOO after your trades are exited on here.
 
Quote from EPrado:

I was gonna say ......where in the hell did you find that book????

Then I saw the price. Yes, it is one of the best (if not all time best) books ever written about horse racing/betting. One of the hedge fund managers I traded for years ago had me read the book. Seeing how I am a huge horse racing fan it was a very quick read. I think all traders would enjoy the book. A LOT of stuff in there that correlates to trading bigtime. I wouldn't mind getting a copy for myself, but it's impossible to find. Thanks for the link Surf...good find.


As far as you being famous or not? I am refraining from that whole thing anymore. I will now only post a YAY or BOO after your trades are exited on here.
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cool, niederhoffer suggested it, here are some reviews.

the "you cant grind, you must speculate" has been the basis of my market philosophy since--- win or lose

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/Letter/bacon.htm


<i>The player at the races can't grind or chisel because [that girl] is taken. The racetrack has all grind and chisel privileges! The mutuel take and the breakage add up to a percentage that continually grinds and chisels the betting money...The grind privileges are spoken for and taken, so the professional bettor must speculate. The mutuel grinding only goes one way - against the bettor. But any percentage can be overcome by enough winners at fat enough prices!
Fortune favors the speculator over the grinder because of the plain old arithmetical percentages. The speculator has a percentage chance to win. The grinder has no chance.
To beat the percentage of the mutuels, the player must ALWAYS have an overlay. He must always have an extra percentage in his favor, to counteract the "take" percentage. Forget about this idea of "grinding out a day's pay." If you want to make a day's pay at the races, get a job watering horses, or pitching manure into trucks. But never try to grind it out of the mutuels. (op cit, p. 83-89)
You Must Speculate -- You CAN'T GRIND!</i>

surf
 
The fact that VN recommends it should knock the price down a few hundy on amazon.

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't good ol Vic's strategy to "grind" by selling index puts ? Collect a little on giant leverage.

Funny that a guy like him would be against a grinding strategy.
 
Quote from EPrado:

The fact that VN recommends it should knock the price down a few hundy on amazon.

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't good ol Vic's strategy to "grind" by selling index puts ? Collect a little on giant leverage.

Funny that a guy like him would be against a grinding strategy.
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i don't know his strategy. i do know that he speaks very highly of bacon.

surf:D
 
here are 2 stock picks for the short term:


Wilshire Bancorp WIBC

Scientific Games SGMS


good luck!

surf:D




Every profession has its tricks of the trade. Truck drivers to astrophysicists all have certain tricks, tactics and methods to get the job done in the most efficient and effective way possible. Professional trading is no exception.

Pro traders use certain proven tricks to place the odds solidly in their favor prior to placing any money at risk. One of these tricks is to buy weakness and sell strength. It sounds easy enough, but exactly what does it mean?

Beginners repeat this mantra without fully understanding how to put it into practice. Exactly how weak does a stock need to be and how weak is too weak to risk buying the stock? We have conducted exhaustive, statistically valid testing on 1000's of trades since 1995 to find answers to this question. What we discovered may surprise you, but it's a proven trick used by professional traders to place the odds firmly in their favor when picking stocks for short term gains.

The first step is to make certain that the stock you are considering is above its 200-day simple moving average. This makes certain that the stock isn't too weak to have a short-term bounce. Next, look for companies that are down 5 or more days in a row. There are multiple reasons this makes sense but the most simple is these pullbacks attract bargain hunters and others who look for this scenario often triggering gains over the next 1, 2 days and 1 week time frame. The next step is to drill deeper into the list for shares that possess a 2-period relative strength index of less than 2. (For additional information on this proven indicator click here). Lastly, only buy stocks that have scored 8 or higher on our Short Term PowerRatings. Stocks meeting all of these criteria have been statistically proven to have increased the odds of trading higher over the short-term.
 
The DJIA is struggling here. It appears to be near impossible to break the 9600 level. Each push higher is met with massive resistance in each lower time frame. Intuitively this looks like a good time to SHORT the YM. Suggest shorting here at 9535 YM.

YM short 9535



surf
 
9555 would be your stop out level given your standard 20 point cushion,correct?........................or am i risking censorship by the SS Nazis by daring to even ask?
 
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