holding shorts over weekend. good luck everyone! surf
The Surf Report
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A weaker than expected consumer confidence report combined with concerned words from noted economists Nouriel Roubini and Robert Shiller shoved stocks downward for the fourth straight weekly loss. However, gains in tech shares managed to push the Nasdaq into positive territory by the close of trading. The DJIA lost -36.65 to 8146.52, the Nasdaq eased ahead by +3.48 to 1756.03 and the S&P 500 gave back -3.55 to 879.13.
Chevron Corp (CVX | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) - The falling dollar effected profits of the US&'s second largest energy producer sending shares dipping down 2.65% or $1.67 to $61.42/share.
PriceSmart (PSMT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) - Discount shopping club owner reported declining third quarter profits triggering shares to sell off by 14.04% or $2.62 to $16.04.
Shaw Group (SGR | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) - Third quarter profit plummeted 85% for this power plant builder sending shares tumbling 9.56% or $2.50 to $23.66.
Infosys Technologies (INFY | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) - Climbed 4.23% or $1.46 to $35.95/share upon beating analysts first fiscal quarter profit estimates.
Oil fell another 52 cents to $59.86, Gold gave back $3.70 to $912.50 and the VIX index actually fell 2.55% to 29.02 dropping below the critical 30 level.
Chevron Corp (CVX | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) - The falling dollar effected profits of the US&'s second largest energy producer sending shares dipping down 2.65% or $1.67 to $61.42/share.
PriceSmart (PSMT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) - Discount shopping club owner reported declining third quarter profits triggering shares to sell off by 14.04% or $2.62 to $16.04.
Shaw Group (SGR | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) - Third quarter profit plummeted 85% for this power plant builder sending shares tumbling 9.56% or $2.50 to $23.66.
Infosys Technologies (INFY | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) - Climbed 4.23% or $1.46 to $35.95/share upon beating analysts first fiscal quarter profit estimates.
Oil fell another 52 cents to $59.86, Gold gave back $3.70 to $912.50 and the VIX index actually fell 2.55% to 29.02 dropping below the critical 30 level.
The S&P 500 fell for its 4th straight week despite the Volatility Fear Index, VIX, dropping simultaneously on Friday. Surprisingly lower consumer confidence figures combined with pessimistic words from noted economist, Robert Shiller, prevented any rallies from materializing. Despite the negative sentiment, rising shares of Technology companies enabled the Nasdaq to close in positive territory. The DJIA lost 36.65 to 8146.52, the Nasdaq eased ahead by 3.48 to 1756.03 and the S&P 500 gave back 3.55 to 879.13.
Here are 7 stocks you need to know about for Monday:
An analyst at Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Yahoo (YHOO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) to "market weight".
The FDIC may not guarantee bond sales of old time bond trader, CIT Group (CIT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating).
The original discount broker, Charles Schwab (SCHW | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), reveals earnings before the bell with a consensus estimate of 18 cents/share.
Novellus Systems (NVLS | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) announces second quarter earnings after the bell on Monday, with an expected loss of 38 cents/share.
Philadelphia based insurer, Lincoln National (LNC | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), funded its underwriting unit with $1 billion dollars of TARP money.
Rumors of job cuts at Cisco (CSCO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) have been denied by the company.
A federal jury rejected Altria's (MO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) $24 million dollar tax refund claim
Here are 7 stocks you need to know about for Monday:
An analyst at Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Yahoo (YHOO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) to "market weight".
The FDIC may not guarantee bond sales of old time bond trader, CIT Group (CIT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating).
The original discount broker, Charles Schwab (SCHW | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), reveals earnings before the bell with a consensus estimate of 18 cents/share.
Novellus Systems (NVLS | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) announces second quarter earnings after the bell on Monday, with an expected loss of 38 cents/share.
Philadelphia based insurer, Lincoln National (LNC | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating), funded its underwriting unit with $1 billion dollars of TARP money.
Rumors of job cuts at Cisco (CSCO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) have been denied by the company.
A federal jury rejected Altria's (MO | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) $24 million dollar tax refund claim
Power Rating Weekly Outlook
A surprising jump in exports counteracted continued earning nervousness in stocks Friday morning. Shares are mixed, presently trading in an erratic fashion as pressures from the bulls and bears battle in traditional fashion. The week began on a shaky foot with news of Bank of America holding over $7 billion dollars of highly risky loans depressing trading for most of the day until bargain hunters entered the fray lifting shares to a mixed close. Tuesday wasnât as fortunate with the bears gaining control on dividend declines. However, insurance companies bucked the downward spiral due to a delay in Obama implementing the nationalized health care plan. Midweek, stocks were hit with a barrage of bad news however pure bull strength kept the market mixed on the day. Positive news of General Motors quickly emerging from Bankruptcy and Goldman Sachs obtaining a Bank of America upgrade helped stocks close modestly higher Thursday. This is despite Warren Buffettâs dire words on the economic environment. The DJIA is presently trading below both the 50 and 200 day Simple Moving Averages with the 8000 level being the next solid support range on the daily chart. The VIX spiked over 30 during the week indicating fear may be overwhelming the optimistic feeling in stocks. The market is really getting hit from all sides. Both positive and negative news is rocking stocks in both directions. Long term investors need proven tools to locate stocks most likely to outperform over the next years time frame. Our Long Term Power Ratings are one such proven tool. They are built upon 13 years of extensive, statistically valid studies across most market conditions. This research clearly shows that stocks earning a 10 Long Term Power Rating have an 81% chance of being higher one year later. Those with a 9 rating possess a 79.1% chance of trading higher one year later. Conversely, stocks that are awarded low ratings of 1 or 2 have clearly shown to be simply too volatile and risky for prudent, conservative long term investors. You can clearly see the statistical advantage in building a long term portfolio consisting of high rated stocks, while avoiding the lower ratings. Letâs take a look at several of the featured Power Rated stocks this week:
AutoZone AZO: This 6 Long Term Power Rated stock had a bang up positive fiscal third quarter. Sales increased by 9.3% and ES soared by 25.9%. They are the leading distributor of automobile replacement parts and accessories in the United States. Along with the strong third quarter results, the company expanded during this time by opening 32 new stores and has just authorized the repurchase of $500 million dollars of stock. Tehnically, things are not as rosy. The stock has been bouncing around but appears to have double bottomed at the $147.50 area. It is trading above the 200 day SMA but sub the 50 day SMA at 138.89 and 157.14, respectively.
Alberto Culver ACV: Another 6 Long Term Power Rated stock from our âMost Requestedâ screener. This personal products company makes such well known brands as Noxzema, Aleberto V05, and Nexxus. The second quarter had mixed results with earnings increasing by 10.4% but net sales dropped over 10% due to currency fluctuations. Itâs another story, technically, with shares in a strong uptrend since April, 27th. However, resistance may have been hit at $26.00/share. Price is above both the 50 and 200 day SMAâs currently at 23.53 and 23.37, respectively.
Blackboard BBBB: This unique company focuses on the educational sector providing on line learning and student communication, security tools to the school communities worldwide. 2008 was a great year for the firm with revenue being higher by 30 % and $80 million in operating cash flows. Recently, the performance has not been as hot on the chart. Price has double bottomed at $27.50 and has hit resistance at the 50 day SMA at 29.76.
Ross Stores ROST: The nationâs second largest off price retailer has just been upgraded from a 6 to a 7 Long Term Power Rating. They had an excellent first quarter with EPS gaining by 13% and sales were up 9%. The CEO, Michael Balmuth, provided very positive words for the rest of 2009 despite the challenging economic conditions. Their second quarter ends on August 1st and continued strong results are expected. On the chart, shares have been channeling between $38.00 and $39.00. Price has appeared to have found support at the 50 day SMA currently at $38.22 and is well above the 200 day SMA at $32.88.
Activision Blizzard ATVI: The videogame powerhouse has just been upgraded from a 5 to a 6 Long Term Power Rating. The created and market such best selling names as Guitar Hero, World of Warcraft, and Call of Duty. The company announced better than expected first quarter results with net revenues and EPS ahead of prior outlook. They also increased the outlook for full year 2009. The chart is interesting with a triple top pattern at $12-$13/share range then a fall off to the 50 day SMA at $11.92.
International Flavors & Fragrances IFF: A leading creator of flavors and fragrances for the consumer products sector has just obtained an upgrade from a 5 to a 6 Long Term Power Rating. First quarter financial results were down across the board. However the CEO, Robert Amen, gave positive words for the future. Second quarter results will be revealed on August 5th so we will see soon if the company was able to pull out of the slump. Technically, price is channeling between $31.50 and $33.00/share. Support has been found at the 50 day SMA currently at $31.53. However, resistance at $33.00/share appears solid.
Altria Group MO: This beleaguered international tobacco giant is the highest ranked stock on our most requested screener with a 7 rank. They just declared a quarterly dividend of .32 cents and reaffirmed 2009 EPS guidance at the annual shareholders meeting. They are most famous for owning cigarette maker, Phillip Moris, 20 labels of premium wine, and SAB Miller Plc. , as well as other tobacco and alcohol related concerns. The first quarter of 2009 was decent with diluted EPS up 5.4% and their cigarette segments income was up over 10%. The company reaffirmed 2009 guidance with an expected growth rate of 3 to 6%. Technically, price has been channeling between $16.20 and $16.60/share. It is tightly trading between the 50 and 200 day SMAâs currently at 16.54 and 16.19, respectively.
Tech Data Corp TECD: A company in the wholesale computer space that has earned a 6 Long Term Power Rating. They recently announced their fiscal first quarter 2010 results with net sales being down 18.1%. However, gross margins improved slightly with dropping expenses. On the chart, price has been in a strong uptrend since April 23rd trading above both the 50 and 200 day SMAâs. However, a double top may have formed at the $33.00/share range creating resistance for further advancement.
Arch Coal ACI: This most requested coal company earned the lowest possible Long Term Power Ranking of 1. 1 ranked stocks have proven to simply be too risky and volatile for prudent long term investment. However, with this said, itâs important to note that these volatile missiles are likely to make sharp moves in either direction. Sale volume declined 10.8% and revenues dropped 2.6% in the first quarter of 2009. They are one of the largest coal producers in the US, providing fuel for about 6% of the nations electricity. Technically, shares have been downtrending since mid June and are trading below both the 200 and 50 day SMAâs.
Stocks In The News
Here are a few gems catching my eye from the newswire this week
American Express AXP: Led the DJIA higher after climbing on an upgrade from Stifel Nicolaus
Matrixx Initatives MTXX: Continues to get hit as a class action lawsuit was filed due to its cold remedies supposedly causing a loss in the sense of smell.
Regis Corp RGS: The owner of Super Cuts hair salons fell hard on a decline in fiscal fourth quarter revenue dropping
Citrix Systems CTXS: Oppenheimer downgraded the software maker to perform sending shares lower
Aetna AET: Climbed along with others in the insurance sector on relief that Obama may delay creating a government health plan
Discover Financial DFS: Fell as the struggling credit card issuer said it would offer $500 million dollars of additional shares to raise capital
Metro PCS PCS: Climbed after UBS restated its buy rating
Weyerhauser WY: The papermaker fell upon cutting its dividend
This Weekâs Top Performers:
Oshkosh Corp OSK
Ivanhoe Mines IVN
American Bank AMBK
This Weekâs Worst Performers:
American International Group AIG
Regis Corp RGS
Neenah Paper NP
What To Expect Next Week
Monday: Treasury Budget
Tuesday: PPI, Retail Sales
Wednesday: CPI, Industrial Production
Thursday: Initial Claims, Philly Fed
Friday: Housing Starts, Building Permits
A surprising jump in exports counteracted continued earning nervousness in stocks Friday morning. Shares are mixed, presently trading in an erratic fashion as pressures from the bulls and bears battle in traditional fashion. The week began on a shaky foot with news of Bank of America holding over $7 billion dollars of highly risky loans depressing trading for most of the day until bargain hunters entered the fray lifting shares to a mixed close. Tuesday wasnât as fortunate with the bears gaining control on dividend declines. However, insurance companies bucked the downward spiral due to a delay in Obama implementing the nationalized health care plan. Midweek, stocks were hit with a barrage of bad news however pure bull strength kept the market mixed on the day. Positive news of General Motors quickly emerging from Bankruptcy and Goldman Sachs obtaining a Bank of America upgrade helped stocks close modestly higher Thursday. This is despite Warren Buffettâs dire words on the economic environment. The DJIA is presently trading below both the 50 and 200 day Simple Moving Averages with the 8000 level being the next solid support range on the daily chart. The VIX spiked over 30 during the week indicating fear may be overwhelming the optimistic feeling in stocks. The market is really getting hit from all sides. Both positive and negative news is rocking stocks in both directions. Long term investors need proven tools to locate stocks most likely to outperform over the next years time frame. Our Long Term Power Ratings are one such proven tool. They are built upon 13 years of extensive, statistically valid studies across most market conditions. This research clearly shows that stocks earning a 10 Long Term Power Rating have an 81% chance of being higher one year later. Those with a 9 rating possess a 79.1% chance of trading higher one year later. Conversely, stocks that are awarded low ratings of 1 or 2 have clearly shown to be simply too volatile and risky for prudent, conservative long term investors. You can clearly see the statistical advantage in building a long term portfolio consisting of high rated stocks, while avoiding the lower ratings. Letâs take a look at several of the featured Power Rated stocks this week:
AutoZone AZO: This 6 Long Term Power Rated stock had a bang up positive fiscal third quarter. Sales increased by 9.3% and ES soared by 25.9%. They are the leading distributor of automobile replacement parts and accessories in the United States. Along with the strong third quarter results, the company expanded during this time by opening 32 new stores and has just authorized the repurchase of $500 million dollars of stock. Tehnically, things are not as rosy. The stock has been bouncing around but appears to have double bottomed at the $147.50 area. It is trading above the 200 day SMA but sub the 50 day SMA at 138.89 and 157.14, respectively.
Alberto Culver ACV: Another 6 Long Term Power Rated stock from our âMost Requestedâ screener. This personal products company makes such well known brands as Noxzema, Aleberto V05, and Nexxus. The second quarter had mixed results with earnings increasing by 10.4% but net sales dropped over 10% due to currency fluctuations. Itâs another story, technically, with shares in a strong uptrend since April, 27th. However, resistance may have been hit at $26.00/share. Price is above both the 50 and 200 day SMAâs currently at 23.53 and 23.37, respectively.
Blackboard BBBB: This unique company focuses on the educational sector providing on line learning and student communication, security tools to the school communities worldwide. 2008 was a great year for the firm with revenue being higher by 30 % and $80 million in operating cash flows. Recently, the performance has not been as hot on the chart. Price has double bottomed at $27.50 and has hit resistance at the 50 day SMA at 29.76.
Ross Stores ROST: The nationâs second largest off price retailer has just been upgraded from a 6 to a 7 Long Term Power Rating. They had an excellent first quarter with EPS gaining by 13% and sales were up 9%. The CEO, Michael Balmuth, provided very positive words for the rest of 2009 despite the challenging economic conditions. Their second quarter ends on August 1st and continued strong results are expected. On the chart, shares have been channeling between $38.00 and $39.00. Price has appeared to have found support at the 50 day SMA currently at $38.22 and is well above the 200 day SMA at $32.88.
Activision Blizzard ATVI: The videogame powerhouse has just been upgraded from a 5 to a 6 Long Term Power Rating. The created and market such best selling names as Guitar Hero, World of Warcraft, and Call of Duty. The company announced better than expected first quarter results with net revenues and EPS ahead of prior outlook. They also increased the outlook for full year 2009. The chart is interesting with a triple top pattern at $12-$13/share range then a fall off to the 50 day SMA at $11.92.
International Flavors & Fragrances IFF: A leading creator of flavors and fragrances for the consumer products sector has just obtained an upgrade from a 5 to a 6 Long Term Power Rating. First quarter financial results were down across the board. However the CEO, Robert Amen, gave positive words for the future. Second quarter results will be revealed on August 5th so we will see soon if the company was able to pull out of the slump. Technically, price is channeling between $31.50 and $33.00/share. Support has been found at the 50 day SMA currently at $31.53. However, resistance at $33.00/share appears solid.
Altria Group MO: This beleaguered international tobacco giant is the highest ranked stock on our most requested screener with a 7 rank. They just declared a quarterly dividend of .32 cents and reaffirmed 2009 EPS guidance at the annual shareholders meeting. They are most famous for owning cigarette maker, Phillip Moris, 20 labels of premium wine, and SAB Miller Plc. , as well as other tobacco and alcohol related concerns. The first quarter of 2009 was decent with diluted EPS up 5.4% and their cigarette segments income was up over 10%. The company reaffirmed 2009 guidance with an expected growth rate of 3 to 6%. Technically, price has been channeling between $16.20 and $16.60/share. It is tightly trading between the 50 and 200 day SMAâs currently at 16.54 and 16.19, respectively.
Tech Data Corp TECD: A company in the wholesale computer space that has earned a 6 Long Term Power Rating. They recently announced their fiscal first quarter 2010 results with net sales being down 18.1%. However, gross margins improved slightly with dropping expenses. On the chart, price has been in a strong uptrend since April 23rd trading above both the 50 and 200 day SMAâs. However, a double top may have formed at the $33.00/share range creating resistance for further advancement.
Arch Coal ACI: This most requested coal company earned the lowest possible Long Term Power Ranking of 1. 1 ranked stocks have proven to simply be too risky and volatile for prudent long term investment. However, with this said, itâs important to note that these volatile missiles are likely to make sharp moves in either direction. Sale volume declined 10.8% and revenues dropped 2.6% in the first quarter of 2009. They are one of the largest coal producers in the US, providing fuel for about 6% of the nations electricity. Technically, shares have been downtrending since mid June and are trading below both the 200 and 50 day SMAâs.
Stocks In The News
Here are a few gems catching my eye from the newswire this week
American Express AXP: Led the DJIA higher after climbing on an upgrade from Stifel Nicolaus
Matrixx Initatives MTXX: Continues to get hit as a class action lawsuit was filed due to its cold remedies supposedly causing a loss in the sense of smell.
Regis Corp RGS: The owner of Super Cuts hair salons fell hard on a decline in fiscal fourth quarter revenue dropping
Citrix Systems CTXS: Oppenheimer downgraded the software maker to perform sending shares lower
Aetna AET: Climbed along with others in the insurance sector on relief that Obama may delay creating a government health plan
Discover Financial DFS: Fell as the struggling credit card issuer said it would offer $500 million dollars of additional shares to raise capital
Metro PCS PCS: Climbed after UBS restated its buy rating
Weyerhauser WY: The papermaker fell upon cutting its dividend
This Weekâs Top Performers:
Oshkosh Corp OSK
Ivanhoe Mines IVN
American Bank AMBK
This Weekâs Worst Performers:
American International Group AIG
Regis Corp RGS
Neenah Paper NP
What To Expect Next Week
Monday: Treasury Budget
Tuesday: PPI, Retail Sales
Wednesday: CPI, Industrial Production
Thursday: Initial Claims, Philly Fed
Friday: Housing Starts, Building Permits
good luck!
surf,
I am short with the Hamzei intermediate term top call. . just from a bit higher level than your entry.
looking good though, reminders of the summer of 2002, when the market rallied into the most overvalued price in history at that time, and then just slid to new lows . . .
keep up the big wave elephant hunting! those make the most money!
sportsguy
I am short with the Hamzei intermediate term top call. . just from a bit higher level than your entry.
looking good though, reminders of the summer of 2002, when the market rallied into the most overvalued price in history at that time, and then just slid to new lows . . .
keep up the big wave elephant hunting! those make the most money!
sportsguy
stopped out of shorts with small profits on run up today. flat YM
SHORT GS via july 140 puts at 1.35
surf
SHORT GS via july 140 puts at 1.35
surf
"Small profits" is not exactly a journal entry.
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