The Surf Report

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Quote from Thunderdog:
it seems that Mike offered some decent market commentary after all.

`This is not a market to pick bottoms'
`Do not pump up your ego'
`Leveraging all you have into a trade (..) is a major mistake'
`The market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent'
`Do not be a hypocrite'

... Agreed, platitudes are better than flames. But insights would be even better.
 
Quote from Rodney King:

But insights would be even better.

I don't know about insights, I only know about predictions:

Quote from Pekelo on 11/14:

it really looks like we had a dragon failure on the daily chart too. (SPX)
If so, height is 160, failure at 913 or so, that would take us down to 913-160= 750ish...

Probably takes 2-3 days to get there....

That was a TA based prediction fullfilled in 4 days. That's how you predict the market.... Of course the late Surf didn't believe in TA, rest in peace...
 
Quote from Rodney King:

... Agreed, platitudes are better than flames. But insights would be even better.
There are platitudes and there are insights. And what do you refer to as insights? Numerically specific calls pulled out of the air and the repeated reference to "research?"
 
Quote from Pekelo:

...That was a TA based prediction fullfilled in 4 days. That's how you predict the market.... Of course the late Surf didn't believe in TA, rest in peace...
Although I trade using only price action, which qualifies as TA, I don't believe most of that stuff. Trading is about good entries and good exits. Predictions are beside the point. There is a distinction. Of course, that's just my opinion.
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Predictions are beside the point.

Every trade is a prediction.(although time will only tell if it is a good or a bad one) You don't go long because you expect the market to fall, do you? :)

A prediction is the verbal expression of your market view, a trade is the numeric one....
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Every trade is a prediction.(although time will only tell if it is a good or a bad one) You don't go long because you expect the market to fall, do you? :)

A prediction is the verbal expression of your market view, a trade is the numeric one....
When I go long, it is because the market action tells me, based on my predefined criteria, that NOW appears to be a low-risk entry for what appears be to a momentary long bias. That's it. I have no idea in advance where or when that bias will turn but, with luck, my exit criteria will give me reasonable notice at around that time. Therefore, I see it more as reaction rather than prediction. To me, the idea of seeing into the future with numeric specificity is patently bogus. As I have often remarked before, perhaps my view is a reflection of my own limitations. But I don't think so.
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

There are platitudes and there are insights. And what do you refer to as insights? Numerically specific calls

Yes, I would say `specific calls' are better than platitudes. I'm sure everyone on e'trader has read enough trading books to have heard `...longer than you can remain solvent' many times already, no?
 
Quote from Rodney King:

Yes, I would say `specific calls' are better than platitudes. I'm sure everyone on e'trader has read enough trading books to have heard `...longer than you can remain solvent' many times already, no?
In addition to my earlier comments about predictions, specific calls without an underlying basis have no value to a thinking person. Repeated reference to undisclosed and unexplained "research" hardly provides such a basis. You'd be richer with a bag of useful platitudes than a truckload of useless calls. Whereas useful platitudes can point someone in the general direction of how to fish, numerically specific price/time calls are just plain fishy.
 
Quote from Rodney King:

Yes, I would say `specific calls' are better than platitudes. I'm sure everyone on e'trader has read enough trading books to have heard `...longer than you can remain solvent' many times already, no?

Rodney.. if our resident experts here at ET have read all that stuff already then explain why Smurf here violated the rule and blew out. Seems my platitudes are more relevant than misguided arrogant reckless calls no? Funny how all of you love to state how stupid common sense advice is but it never takes me long to find examples of how it is repeatedly ignored. We all make trading mistakes but do not dismiss the importance of the basic rules of risk management which I would not expect a Gordon Gekko wannabee (SMURF) to understand until it smacks him in the face.

As you can tell from other people's posts, I was not the only one who finds the deep irony in someone who lectured everyone like they were top of the heap blowing out on a stupid mistake.

Funny how my post has advice you claim has been repeated too many times yet the so called experts here violate those basic principles again and again.

Specific calls are useless really because at ET they are simply edited for your viewing pleasure. A blow out speaks volumes. Although we all have been there, I certainly would not get on a podium bragging about "our" calls or "we" when "he" is not what "we" are suppoed to believe he is.

So I say this, my platitudes offer more to the readers here, though not even originally my own, than random market calls as though a god himself made them ;)
 
Quote from Mike Okistini:

So I say this, my platitudes offer more to the readers here, though not even originally my own,

Now we're getting to the heart of it. This is the first post where you've acknowledged these `insights' are not your own.

Is it an `insight' when/if a quick Googling shows it's on the web tens of thousands of times already?
 
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