The Surf Report

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from marketsurfer:

I believe that fixed stop losses actually hinder performance. multiple studies in this regard seem to validate this view. Position sizing is the real key.

surf
More...

This is true and this question can be easily answered by mechanically testing simple strategies. The main downside of fixed stop losses strategies is that MOST do not account for a change in price volatility regime.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I believe that fixed stop losses actually hinder performance. multiple studies in this regard seem to validate this view. Position sizing is the real key.

surf
More...

Stop loss has many kinds. It is not necessary a fixed stop.

1. What scenario change would you consider that the original premises no longer valid?

2. Or, say if the situation does not unfold in the direction you are looking for in 6 months, then stop out.

Your insight on #1 is the one I am very interested in.
 
The Big 3 . GM, Ford, Chrysler,should have nothing to do with the world market but they do..

All i can say is that if they dont get bailed out we better invent a wosre term than Depression because it will be worse than that.

These companies that are not efficent are what you call inocent victims to the situation of the Credit market. Thier entire buisness is based on loans and financing and now they cant get them. if they go under there will be around 3 million people out of jobs when you include parts vendors etc... So think again before you say we should not bail them out because if that happens all of us will be out of jobs, no stock market so you better be living on a farm and get out of the city...
Fed needs to halt deduction of all payroll taxes for next 2 months maybe 3 ..this way it has an instan effect on circulation of cash flow....there is no other remedy...
Oh yes GM has just said they have no cash so if that happens it could only take around 20 to 30 days before they declare bankruptcy...then the end of the world...doom and gloom.....
Its so bad that banks that are not lending the CEO's should be tried for Treason....mark my words...
 
@marketsurfer

your bullish stocks call and your short gold call stand in condradiction. the only way stocks go to new highs if these criminals print vast amaount of money and send it directley to the us people. something like a 600$ check every month for everyone!
if something like that happens i could imagine new highs but in that case gold would explode to the upside.
i think your gold call is spot on in the short run, but stocks will newer ever make new highs in the next years with gold not making new highs. not gonna happen.
i am so disgusted by all this borderline criminal shit going on:(
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Stop loss has many kinds. It is not necessary a fixed stop.

1. What scenario change would you consider that the original premises no longer valid?

2. Or, say if the situation does not unfold in the direction you are looking for in 6 months, then stop out.

Your insight on #1 is the one I am very interested in.
More...


Larry Connor's has a new book coming out any day now that shows studies proven stops being detrimental, even super wide 50% ones in the stock market.

If the lows of 7777 are taken out, then the premise is no longer valid and I am totally on the wrong track, not to mention major losses. we are pushing the limits here and yes, i am getting a little nervous.....

surf
 
Quote from MohdSalleh:

you 200% long now>?
More...


yes, we are averaging into this.

i remain confident as best as can be expected.

when this turns, its going to be hard.

7777 gets taken out on downside, I am finished.

surf
 
Quote from ck9:

@marketsurfer

your bullish stocks call and your short gold call stand in condradiction. the only way stocks go to new highs if these criminals print vast amaount of money and send it directley to the us people. something like a 600$ check every month for everyone!
if something like that happens i could imagine new highs but in that case gold would explode to the upside.
i think your gold call is spot on in the short run, but stocks will newer ever make new highs in the next years with gold not making new highs. not gonna happen.
i am so disgusted by all this borderline criminal shit going on:(
More...


funny.

i don't agree they are contradictory. gold to < 600 by 4.1.2009 and stocks will go no lower than 7777 for the next 2 years at least.

i jumped in long way early in the DJIA, however, the premise still stands.

surf
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top