The Surf Report

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have a good weekend, enjoy!

surf



Every week is providing more and more opportunity for traders and investors. The unprecedented volatility just hit another all time high today with the VIX striking an astounding 89.53 which is truly "off the charts" by any standard.

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The market downturn will provide long term investors with once in a lifetime opportunities to purchase quality companies at deeply discounted prices. This is not the popping of the dot com bubble wherein the inherent value of the names themselves was highly questionable but rather fundamentally strong companies with solid offerings and balance sheets.

Traders can thank their lucky stars for the wide swings and active markets. There has never in history been such phenomenal and repeatable chances for the skilled short term market player to profit. Lets take a closer look at what happened during this exceptional week.

Monday saw the previous weeks ending rally continued on Ben Bernanke's and George Bush's positive guidance regarding the financial rescue package. Profit takers hit the market on Tuesday. This fact combined with billionaire Kurt Kerkorian's liquidation of his Ford (NYSE:F - News) shares pushed the market lower. Wednesday was another down day with a few bright spots. Airlines climbed sharply due to plummeting fuel prices and Apple (NasdaqGS:AAPL - News) performed nicely based on the ubiquitous iPhone smashing sales projections. Positive news hit the market on Thursday with bouncing oil lifting energy companies, leading to the DJIA and S&P 500 closing up on the day. Interestingly, Alan Greenspan admitted flaws in his free market ideology on Thursday, which may have panicked the market, as witnessed Friday.

Friday morning the index futures were locked limit down and the Moscow exchange actually closed its doors until Tuesday due to major losses. Stocks are down today, but not near as much as traders expected based on the morning future activity. The futures looked clearly like today was going to be the big drop.

Long term investors can gain an edge in these conditions by usingEDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT #$#%$%$%$#$#$#$#4343434343

Lexmark International (NYSE:LXK - News) - If you know computer printers, you know this popular computer printer and scanner maker. This $5 billion dollar revenue company was just upgraded from a 5 to a 6 long term PowerRating. Price has been down trending since September, but looks like a base may be forming here around the $25 to $28 per share range. They release third quarter results on October 21, 2008. Second quarter was strong with 50% year to year operating income growth, and a $158 million dollar share repurchase.

Tech Data Corp (NasdaqGS:TECD - News) - This Clearwater Florida based wholesale distributor of IT products was just upgraded from a 7 to an 8 long term PowerRating. Strong European results in the fiscal 2nd quarter of 2009 lifted most of the traditional metrics over last year same time. However, US performance was lagging over all this quarter. The CEO stated that they will be revamping the shipping and handling policy among other things in the next quarter to help lift performance. Technically, the stock has been in a downtrend over the last several weeks. It may have found a bottom here around the $20.00/share area.

Mc Donalds (NYSE:MCD - News) - This 6 rated international fast food hamburger king hit a low of 46 last week, but has since bounced up over 10 points from this low. Fundamentally, They recently announced a 6.1% global sales increase, strong growth in franchised and corporate owned stores and a 44% increase in adjusted EPS.

Service Corporation International (NYSE:SCI - News) - The premiere company in this field with a network of over 2000 funeral homes and cemeteries. The company is Service Corporation International SCI. It is resting with a 6 long term PowerRating and appears to be basing here, around $6.00/share, after a significant pull back on the chart.

Stocks In The News

Here is a sampling of stocks that caught my eye this week from the wires:

AT&T (NYSE:T - News) - Telephone, as its affectionately called on trading floors secured a $600 million dollar contract from Tennessee to revamp the state's phone system.

Emcore (NasdaqGM:EMKR - News) - Barron's suggested that the stock may hit $10.00/share if its successful with the creation and production of a more efficient solar cell.

OptionsXpress (NasdaqGS:OXPS - News) - The option broker crushed analyst profit estimates jumping on the news.

Carters Inc (NYSE:CRI - News) - The baby clothes maker beat third quarter earnings estimates.

This weeks top performers

Nektar Tech (NasdaqGS:NKTR - News)

Ikon Office Solutions (NYSE:IKN - News)

iShares Treasury Bond Fund LT

This weeks worst performers

Colonial Bancgroup (NYSE:CNB - News)

General Growth (NYSE:GGP - News)

Coventry Health (NYSE:CVH - News)

What to look for next week

Monday - New Home Sales

Tuesday - Consumer Confidence

Wednesday - FOMC Policy Statement

Thursday - Advanced GDP

Friday - Initial Claims, Personal Spending, Income
 
I bought O'Bama at 50 and sold him at 84 awhile ago. . .

I find the sister company Tradesports a great location.

Really close baseball and football OT games flip back and forth between 80 and 20 regularly. . . with the change of innings or downs. . .

so i short at 80 or batter and buy at 20 or batter, and just play the swings in a single game.

NFC Championship at Green Bay in OT. .
who ever had the ball was at 80, but at 30 below zero. . . the game was slow and difficult. . .

shorted the patriots at 80 plus in the superbowl. .

fell asleep last night between the phillies and the rays. . .

sportsguy
 
Quote from sportsguy:

I bought O'Bama at 50 and sold him at 84 awhile ago. . .

I find the sister company Tradesports a great location.

Really close baseball and football OT games flip back and forth between 80 and 20 regularly. . . with the change of innings or downs. . .

so i short at 80 or batter and buy at 20 or batter, and just play the swings in a single game.

NFC Championship at Green Bay in OT. .
who ever had the ball was at 80, but at 30 below zero. . . the game was slow and difficult. . .

shorted the patriots at 80 plus in the superbowl. .

fell asleep last night between the phillies and the rays. . .

sportsguy


yes, they are a great company.

nice trading!

surf
 
Northrop Gumman (NYSE:NOC - News) - This defense contractor has just been upgraded from a 4 to a 5 long term PowerRating. Surprisingly this company has been down trending since September, 2008. However, it appears to have found support around the $40.00/share level. The third quarter results were solid with EPS up 6%, Guidance increased by 0.10cents per share, and sales are up 6%. In addition, $70 billion in new orders are backlogged. This is a huge number! NOC looks like a good stock to consider for your long term portfolio right now.



PG&E Holdings (NYSE:PCG - News) - A California based electric/gas utility company that was just upgraded from a 4 to a 5 long lerm PowerRating. Like Northrup above, the shares have been in a downtrend but appear to have found support around the $30/share level and have stabilized over the last several days. Net income under GAAP rules was up .06 cents and guidance has been reaffirmed at $3.15 to $3.25/share. This is another company that deserves serious consideration.



Carter's Inc (NYSE:CRI - News) - The popular baby clothes maker beat third quarter estimates and appears to be bouncing on the chart. It was just upgraded from a 3 to a 4 long term PowerRating and look like a good choice here for your watch list.









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Quote from marketsurfer:

The market downturn will provide long term investors with once in a lifetime opportunities to purchase quality companies at deeply discounted prices. This is not the popping of the dot com bubble wherein the inherent value of the names themselves was highly questionable but rather fundamentally strong companies with solid offerings and balance sheets.
From my observations Surf, you're always a bit "early". The call on CROX would qualify in that way.
I think you are also very early on this call. It looks good in about a YEAR from now. WIth Obama in charge, the very existence of capitalism is in question. Think about it. This is a millenium event....don't use past history or patterns as any guidepost for the future. For instance, have you considered an "L shaped" recovery ?
 
Quote from syswizard:

From my observations Surf, you're always a bit "early". The call on CROX would qualify in that way.
I think you are also very early on this call. It looks good in about a YEAR from now. WIth Obama in charge, the very existence of capitalism is in question. Think about it. This is a millenium event....don't use past history or patterns as any guidepost for the future. For instance, have you considered an "L shaped" recovery ?

yes, you are correct. my market read for the future is generally early and require averging in generally. although the trade didnt work out, i stand by the call that all time highs in the US indexes by 4.1.2009.

the influx of massive capital can't be stopped and will FORCE equities to all time highs....

surf
 
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