Still up nicely on the week in the DJIA. Unfortunately markets dont go straight up. still suggesting staying LONG.
surf
The Surf Report
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Still up nicely on the week in the DJIA. Unfortunately markets dont go straight up. still suggesting staying LONG.
surf
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9yNqdd7kpBQ
Looks like you heard it here first.....
surf
Citigroup May Not Report Profit Until Late 2009 (Update3)
By Jeff Kearns and Josh Fineman
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the second-largest U.S. bank, may not report a profit until the second half of 2009 because of worsening credit conditions, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which told investors to sell shares.
``It will be difficult for Citi to generate profitability over the next 12 months as additional writedowns, lower levels of capital markets activity, and further deterioration in credit- quality trends will continue to weigh on the firm's operating results and capital ratios,'' analyst William Tanona wrote.
Citigroup reported a fourth consecutive quarterly loss last week after at least $13.2 billion of credit losses and writedowns amid the worst housing slump since the Great Depression. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has offered to inject $125 billion into banks, including $25 billion into Citigroup, by purchasing preferred shares, part of a $700 billion industry bailout.
Citigroup slipped 6 percent to $14.18 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have lost 52 percent this year.
Tanona added Citigroup to Goldman's ``Americas Conviction Sell List.'' He also has a six-month price target of $11.
``Weak economic data will keep the stock under pressure over the next six months and it is tough to see why the stock would head higher over this period,'' Tanona wrote.
Citigroup reported a fourth consecutive quarterly loss last week after at least $13.2 billion of credit losses and writedowns. The third-quarter net loss was $2.8 billion, or 60 cents a share, compared with earnings of $2.2 billion, or 44 cents, a year earlier, New York-based Citigroup said.
`Risky Assets'
``Citigroup continues to have some of the highest levels of exposure to risky assets as well as some of the least aggressive marks on those assets to date,'' Tanona said. ``Citigroup will face continued pressure on profitability as credit quality deterioration is likely to accelerate over the near term.''
Banks and securities firms have reported more than $660 billion in losses, writedowns and credit provisions since the start of 2007 and raised $630 billion in capital to offset those losses, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Tanona recommended investors buy Morgan Stanley rather than Citigroup. He expects Morgan Stanley shares to ``significantly'' outperform Citigroup over the next six to 12 months.
``Morgan Stanley has very limited exposure to consumer credit, which is an area we believe will provide significant headwinds for Citigroup in 2009,'' Tanona wrote.
Morgan Stanley climbed 43 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $20.20 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have dropped 62 percent this year.
surf
While obviously my short term attempts at timing the immienent upward explosion of the indexes have been challenging recently; my long term projections have been panning out as planned in GOLD. Gold has just taking out its short term low today on its way to the next level of support in the 699--703 range prior to hitting sub 600 by 4.1.2009. A flood of selling hit the market in the last two hours as someone appears to be closing out a large position. however be aware, as in any long term market views, sharp rallies may take place during this time.
suggest staying LONG djia thru the drawdown here and SHORT gold.
If you have the wherewithall to withstand the equity drawdown here, the rewards should be handsome in the above positions
surf
suggest staying LONG djia thru the drawdown here and SHORT gold.
If you have the wherewithall to withstand the equity drawdown here, the rewards should be handsome in the above positions
surf
dont worry i still believe in u
surfers published thoughts on the USD/CAD pair--- watch this badboy tomorrow around 11:30 EST....
The Event EDIT EDIT EDIT ###%%%###
At 11:30 AM EST on Thursday, October 23, 2008, The Bank Of Canada (BOC) Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference in Ottawa to discuss the Monetary Policy Report.
ADVERTISEMENT
EDIT
Description
Mark Carney is a relatively new BOC Governor who gained the position in February, 2008. This press conference will talk about the banks Monetary Policy Report which lays out BOC's plans for dealing with the present global crisis. Carney spoke on September 25th, here are some highlights that may give clues as to what will be said on Thursday. EDIT EDIT EDIT
"As we prepare to publish our Monetary Policy Report in October, we will continue to monitor, carefully, economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks. Most importantly, we will continue to set monetary policy consistent EDIT EDIT with achieving the EDIT inflation target over the medium term. This remains the best contribution that monetary policy can make to sustained growth."
"All else being equal, this would have increased the financing costs for our businesses and households. However, all else is not equal. The stronger financial position of Canadian banks means that they now borrow at rates considerably lower than those of many of their international peers. In addition, the Bank of Canada has eased its overnight rate substantially since the onset of the crisis. As a result, the effective borrowing costs faced by banks, businesses and households are estimated to have fallen over the past year. This decline contrasts with the experience of most other developed countries. In its upcoming Monetary Policy Report and in light of recent events, the Bank will revisit its current assumption that borrowing spreads will begin to narrow in 2009."
"The Bank will continue to provide additional term liquidity as long as conditions in financial markets warrant. We will then withdraw term liquidity as conditions normalize, as we did in the spring of this year. In addition, as part of an unprecedented U.S. $180 billion coordinated action by the world's major central banks, the Bank of Canada entered into a U.S. $10 billion reciprocal currency-swap arrangement with the U.S. Federal Reserve. This is a prudential move during a volatile period. The facility would be activated in the event of an acute shortage of U.S. dollars in Canada. ######EDIT provides the Bank with additional flexibility to address rapidly evolving developments in financial markets."
Trader Take
In light of the current crisis this is a very important press conference. The USD/CAD has been in a gentle uptrend since January, 2008. HoweverEDIT EDIT EDIT ##### jumped up drastically since October 1st and the international financial bailout plan was announced. Traders will be listening very carefully for clues as to any changes in the BOC's policy and hints for future monetary direction.EDIT EDIT @@@@@@
The Event EDIT EDIT EDIT ###%%%###
At 11:30 AM EST on Thursday, October 23, 2008, The Bank Of Canada (BOC) Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference in Ottawa to discuss the Monetary Policy Report.
ADVERTISEMENT
EDIT
Description
Mark Carney is a relatively new BOC Governor who gained the position in February, 2008. This press conference will talk about the banks Monetary Policy Report which lays out BOC's plans for dealing with the present global crisis. Carney spoke on September 25th, here are some highlights that may give clues as to what will be said on Thursday. EDIT EDIT EDIT
"As we prepare to publish our Monetary Policy Report in October, we will continue to monitor, carefully, economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks. Most importantly, we will continue to set monetary policy consistent EDIT EDIT with achieving the EDIT inflation target over the medium term. This remains the best contribution that monetary policy can make to sustained growth."
"All else being equal, this would have increased the financing costs for our businesses and households. However, all else is not equal. The stronger financial position of Canadian banks means that they now borrow at rates considerably lower than those of many of their international peers. In addition, the Bank of Canada has eased its overnight rate substantially since the onset of the crisis. As a result, the effective borrowing costs faced by banks, businesses and households are estimated to have fallen over the past year. This decline contrasts with the experience of most other developed countries. In its upcoming Monetary Policy Report and in light of recent events, the Bank will revisit its current assumption that borrowing spreads will begin to narrow in 2009."
"The Bank will continue to provide additional term liquidity as long as conditions in financial markets warrant. We will then withdraw term liquidity as conditions normalize, as we did in the spring of this year. In addition, as part of an unprecedented U.S. $180 billion coordinated action by the world's major central banks, the Bank of Canada entered into a U.S. $10 billion reciprocal currency-swap arrangement with the U.S. Federal Reserve. This is a prudential move during a volatile period. The facility would be activated in the event of an acute shortage of U.S. dollars in Canada. ######EDIT provides the Bank with additional flexibility to address rapidly evolving developments in financial markets."
Trader Take
In light of the current crisis this is a very important press conference. The USD/CAD has been in a gentle uptrend since January, 2008. HoweverEDIT EDIT EDIT ##### jumped up drastically since October 1st and the international financial bailout plan was announced. Traders will be listening very carefully for clues as to any changes in the BOC's policy and hints for future monetary direction.EDIT EDIT @@@@@@
surfers published stock choice for long term buy here:
EDIT
SCI Death Dealing--The FINAL Frontier
Can it get anymore gruesome than death dealers or the business of death? They say that death and taxes are the only sure things in life so doesn't it make sense that at least one of these may make a lucrative investment?
ADVERTISEMENT
The death or funeral/graveyard business is a huge industry in the United States. Billions of dollars are spent yearly in this field. You never run out of clients and the actual client never complains! I can't think of another business with a truly unlimited supply of non complaining clients.
On a more serious note, our EDIT EDIT EDIT FF%%%% this week is focused on a company in the funeral business. In fact, it's the premiere company in this field with a network of over 1000 funeral homes and 350 cemeteries in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. The EDIT EDIT EDIT company is Service Corporation International (NYSE:SCI - News), resting with a EDIT l=555555554edit, it appears to be basing here, around $6.00/share, after a significant pull back on the chart.
EDIT EDIT EDIT
$$$%%%%%%%%*&*^*^(*&())()()*((&*&*^_*&*(&(_*_&_
\\
EDIT EDIT EDIT
Let's take a closer look at Service Corporation International. They are the largest funeral/cemetery business in the United States with operating divisions across the spectrum from crematoriums, economic/low priced funerals, culturally based services, and graveyards, to high end death services in Miami. They recently released 2nd quarter earnings that show diluted earnings per share up 27%, but revenues are down 3% due to the sale of over 400 properties. These sales created over $400 million dollars in proceeds for the company. Sales are up significantly and the CEO provided positive guidance for the future.
Technically, the stock has been down trending. However, a base appears to be forming around the $6.00/share level. If you consider the aging population and the fundamentals of this company, it looks like it may be time to invest in the business of death with SCI.
EDIT
SCI Death Dealing--The FINAL Frontier
Can it get anymore gruesome than death dealers or the business of death? They say that death and taxes are the only sure things in life so doesn't it make sense that at least one of these may make a lucrative investment?
ADVERTISEMENT
The death or funeral/graveyard business is a huge industry in the United States. Billions of dollars are spent yearly in this field. You never run out of clients and the actual client never complains! I can't think of another business with a truly unlimited supply of non complaining clients.
On a more serious note, our EDIT EDIT EDIT FF%%%% this week is focused on a company in the funeral business. In fact, it's the premiere company in this field with a network of over 1000 funeral homes and 350 cemeteries in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. The EDIT EDIT EDIT company is Service Corporation International (NYSE:SCI - News), resting with a EDIT l=555555554edit, it appears to be basing here, around $6.00/share, after a significant pull back on the chart.
EDIT EDIT EDIT
$$$%%%%%%%%*&*^*^(*&())()()*((&*&*^_*&*(&(_*_&_
\\
EDIT EDIT EDIT
Let's take a closer look at Service Corporation International. They are the largest funeral/cemetery business in the United States with operating divisions across the spectrum from crematoriums, economic/low priced funerals, culturally based services, and graveyards, to high end death services in Miami. They recently released 2nd quarter earnings that show diluted earnings per share up 27%, but revenues are down 3% due to the sale of over 400 properties. These sales created over $400 million dollars in proceeds for the company. Sales are up significantly and the CEO provided positive guidance for the future.
Technically, the stock has been down trending. However, a base appears to be forming around the $6.00/share level. If you consider the aging population and the fundamentals of this company, it looks like it may be time to invest in the business of death with SCI.
Many funeral homes are operated on forward cash flow like insurance companies.
e.g. You can buy your funeral plans ahead of time and can pay in instalments. "Insurance" can be bought to hedge against sudden death situations where the instalments are not completely paid.
As the boomers age and their parents heading into years of higher death rate, funeral homes will have negative cash flows.
e.g. You can buy your funeral plans ahead of time and can pay in instalments. "Insurance" can be bought to hedge against sudden death situations where the instalments are not completely paid.
As the boomers age and their parents heading into years of higher death rate, funeral homes will have negative cash flows.
Humbled on the DJIA long call. totally and absolutely wrong.
However the long term gold call is doing very well with target potentially being hit early.....
best wishes today everyone!
However the long term gold call is doing very well with target potentially being hit early.....
best wishes today everyone!
Thanks, SG. nice trade on the dollar!
surf
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