The Surf Report

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Quote from sportsguy:

surf,

I agree with your gold call, for the same deflationary economic reasons as selling other asset classes. . .

gold is an inflation hedge, but not a deflation hedge. . . so based on the very same macro economics that the market is experiencing, so is gold. . .

the only deflationary hedge is currency. . because that is what buys necessities, and what people hold, waiting to buy cheaper assets tomorrow.

selling assets and holding currency is classic deflationary macro economics

likewise, with people holding currency for survival, the market is more likely to experience no volume holes, just like the banks with mortgage back securities. . . El Erian said it on CNBC a week ago, there is not enough money in the system.

when that happens, price continue to fall, regardless of asset class

sportsguy


Thanks SG. I appriecitate the kind words and thoughtful analysis.

agree 100%

surf
 
Surf -
Sorry I missed you at the HedgefundWorld.com conference....how was it ?
Hey, we're near 10,300 for the Dow - next week is huge, and will be quite bullish if we hold.
If it doesn't, we could go lower, and then rebound sharply as this market is MOMBO oversold. However, if that happens, more downside to come in late November - post election. Then, Dow 8000 will be imminent.
Glass breakage from window-jumpers a la 1929 means BUY CORNING GLASS - the only bullish stock IMHO ;)
 
Rare Marketsurfer Stock Pick. We are getting more into individual stocks and avoiding indexes due to heavy schizoid volatility and the extraordinary economic environment.


KBR

accumulate here


surf :D :D :D
 
Quote from syswizard:

Surf -
Sorry I missed you at the HedgefundWorld.com conference....how was it ?
Hey, we're near 10,300 for the Dow - next week is huge, and will be quite bullish if we hold.
If it doesn't, we could go lower, and then rebound sharply as this market is MOMBO oversold. However, if that happens, more downside to come in late November - post election. Then, Dow 8000 will be imminent.
Glass breakage from window-jumpers a la 1929 means BUY CORNING GLASS - the only bullish stock IMHO ;)


Thanks, Wiz.

I didn't attend--- I am not in much of a mood to party and chat with the hedgies at this time. I don't think many are and would be surprised if they had much of a turn out. Your calls have been quite accurate, thanks and keep them coming !

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Thanks, Wiz.
Your calls have been quite accurate, thanks and keep them coming !
surf
Thank you. The next rally will be of either nature:
"election euphoria" (slower, steady up move) or a "Bernanke says will save us" quick bounce with short covering.
Above all, watch what the Fed DOES, not what is SAYS.
 
Quote from syswizard:

Thank you. The next rally will be of either nature:
"election euphoria" (slower, steady up move) or a "Bernanke says will save us" quick bounce with short covering.
Above all, watch what the Fed DOES, not what is SAYS.

exactly. I have been looking at the history of the "new deal" era with rosevelt to gain some perspective into what may be happening now. It's as close as a similar occurence that I am aware of in the United States.

best, surf
 
our yahoo Finance weekly recap--published friday morning


What an amazing week for traders! The very core of pure capitalism was challenged with massive Government intervention attempts into the financial sector resulting in wild volatility and dramatic moves. This was a week that will form life long memories for market participants, enriching some, breaking others, but securing its place in market history forever. The week began with shocking news that the widely anticipated, financial rescue plan, failed to garner enough yes votes in the US House of Representatives. Tremendous and powerful selling was triggered across the board on this news.

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The markets experienced their greatest single day point loss ever with not even the commodity complex being spared from the carnage. Turn around Tuesday lived up to its reputation with the market soaring on news that the financial rescue plan was being revived and reworked for another approval attempt. The Dollar particularly liked this news and combined with fear of increasing economic turmoil in the Euro Zone, climbed the steepest against the Euro since the Euro's inception in 1999. The market was relatively flat on Wednesday, ending the day slightly down.

News of Warren Buffet buying into General Electric and anticipation concerning the impending evening US Senate vote on the newly minted rescue plan were the primary movers midweek. Thursday, news that the US Senate approved the revamped bailout plan, was anticlimactic with novel fears of the plan not being adequate to bolster the system. These fears shared with unemployment soaring to 7 year highs knocked the markets back down. Stocks are back in strong positive territory Friday morning as the US House prepared to vote on the revamped bailout bill and news of Wells Fargo buying troubled Wachovia Bank, without Federal assistance, lifted the financial sector
Scholastic Corp (NasdaqGS:SCHL - News) The world's largest publisher of children's books and educational material was upgraded from a 5 to a 6 Long Term Power Rating. Despite a series of disappointing results in the first quarter of fiscal 2009, blamed on a stellar 2008 due to the popular Harry Potter, the stock appears to potentially be bottoming here around the 25 level. They just announced their first quarterly dividend and are initiating a stock buyback plan.

Odyssey Re Holdings (NYSE:ORH - News) - A Stamford, Connecticut based reinsurance company that was just upgraded from a 7 to an 8 Long Term Power Rating. They write specialty insurance policies for esoteric type things such as crops. There has been a 20% increase in dividends and Net Cash Flow is up substantially over last year. Most interestingly, they just announced an additional $200 million dollars increase in their share repurchase program. Technically, the stock has been in a ripping uptrend since mid September, hitting multi year highs.

Johnson and Johnson (NYSE:JNJ - News) - The health care powerhouse holds a 9-rating in a sector rated 9. They recently announced 8.7% increase in sales and a 12.4% increase in second quarter earnings. Its been in an uptrend since the start of July, recently pulling back due to market conditions

Diebold (NYSE:DBD - News) - A 7-rated stock that specializes in ATM machines and bank security products. It was recently downgraded from a 10 rating due to volatility. They have just announced preliminary second quarter revenue increase of 11% and a year to date increase of 9.3%. They have raised revenue expectations and reaffirmed operating margin targets for the year. The company is used by the Bank of China and was chosen as the ATM provider in key facilities for the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics. Banco do Brasil has just added 5400 more Diebold ATM machines to its self service fleet, further emphasizing the true international impact of the company. Technically, the stock has pulled back over the last several weeks, but appears to have bottomed around the 31 area in a clear double bottom formation on the daily chart.

Stocks In The News

Here are few stocks that caught my eye from the wires this week

Cal Maine Foods (NasdaqGM:CALM - News) - The egg farming company cracked lower due to high chicken feed costs falling hard.

Dr. Pepper Snapple (NYSE:DPS - News) - I love drinking Snapple and was pleased to see that the company was chosen to replace Wrigleys in the S&P 500.

Apple (NYSE:AAPL - News) Great news that Goldman Sachs stated an earlier sell off was overdone and they expect the company to hit $145.00 in the near future.

General Electric (NYSE:GE - News) - Word of Warren Buffet's planned purchase of $3 billion dollars of preferred stock, and his optimistic proclamation of GE being the symbol of America failed to carry the stock out of negative territory earlier in the week.

`Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC - News) has moved to acquire Wachovia Bank for $15 billion, angering the previous suitor, Citigroup into moving to block the deal.

American International Group (NYSE:AIG - News) is planning on liquidating assets to repay the US Government's $85 billion dollar bailout loan.

This Weeks Top Performers

Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB - News)

Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL - News)

Techne Corp (NasdaqGS:TECH - News)

This Weeks Worst Performers

Extreme Networks (NasdaqGM:EXTR - News)

Ford Motor (NYSE:F - News)

Sim Corp (AMEX:SIM - News)

What To Look For Next Week

Tuesday Consumer Credit, FOMC Minutes

Wednesday Pending Home Sales, Crude Inventories

Thursday Initial Claims, Wholesale Inventories

Friday Export Prices, Trade Balance
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

TYour calls have been quite accurate, thanks and keep them coming !

Specially the last one. He basicly said the market will go either up or down:

Quote from syswizard:

next week is huge, and will be quite bullish if we hold.If it doesn't, we could go lower,
 
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