Well, in the absence of superior information or intellect, it's all I've got. Good luck on your next go.
The Surf Report
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nice call, wiz! yeah, gold up 26.80, not hearing much about it either. best, surf
Wow Surf, classic day for you huh? 
Best wishes,
JJ
Best wishes,
JJ
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Wow Surf, classic day for you huh?
Best wishes,
JJ
Brutal.
Surf,
go back to your original premise before the ban, and you were right. . . if this economic environment turns into a deflationary spiral, which is what happens with frozen credit, then the only relevant history is in the early 30's, which only our parents' lived through. And unless one has studied the great depression, as Bernanke has, and I have a touch, just one grad school paper, current "buy because the valuation is cheap" perspective of our lifetimes will lead to difficult trades . . .
Likewise, the early 70s had day after day of selling, which was much slower back then, but still the same premise, asset price destruction from the belief that tomorrow will be cheaper. ..
which is the deflationary feed back loop. . . this is a very dangerous time to be bottom fishing. . . .
sportsguy
go back to your original premise before the ban, and you were right. . . if this economic environment turns into a deflationary spiral, which is what happens with frozen credit, then the only relevant history is in the early 30's, which only our parents' lived through. And unless one has studied the great depression, as Bernanke has, and I have a touch, just one grad school paper, current "buy because the valuation is cheap" perspective of our lifetimes will lead to difficult trades . . .
Likewise, the early 70s had day after day of selling, which was much slower back then, but still the same premise, asset price destruction from the belief that tomorrow will be cheaper. ..
which is the deflationary feed back loop. . . this is a very dangerous time to be bottom fishing. . . .
sportsguy
Surf,
You do admit when you are wrong, which gives you some credibility but your gold call is just wrong and you have to be a complete tool to step infront of these economic conditions in this meltdown.
When you pick bottoms....you come up with a sticky finger most often.
the global melt down is inplay. where your helmet if you want to play.
Thanks, Wyckoff. However, i vehemently disagree about my gold call--for those who don't know-- we initially called a gold short at 955 and fully expect gold to be sub 600 by 4.1.2009. this is not a macro economic call in the traditional sense, its tied to the belief that huge holdings have started liquidation manuevuers--selling into strength, so to speak..... can't get into anymore details but it has nothing to do with traditional economic thought.
surf
surf,
I agree with your gold call, for the same deflationary economic reasons as selling other asset classes. . .
gold is an inflation hedge, but not a deflation hedge. . . so based on the very same macro economics that the market is experiencing, so is gold. . .
the only deflationary hedge is currency. . because that is what buys necessities, and what people hold, waiting to buy cheaper assets tomorrow.
selling assets and holding currency is classic deflationary macro economics
likewise, with people holding currency for survival, the market is more likely to experience no volume holes, just like the banks with mortgage back securities. . . El Erian said it on CNBC a week ago, there is not enough money in the system.
when that happens, price continue to fall, regardless of asset class
sportsguy
I agree with your gold call, for the same deflationary economic reasons as selling other asset classes. . .
gold is an inflation hedge, but not a deflation hedge. . . so based on the very same macro economics that the market is experiencing, so is gold. . .
the only deflationary hedge is currency. . because that is what buys necessities, and what people hold, waiting to buy cheaper assets tomorrow.
selling assets and holding currency is classic deflationary macro economics
likewise, with people holding currency for survival, the market is more likely to experience no volume holes, just like the banks with mortgage back securities. . . El Erian said it on CNBC a week ago, there is not enough money in the system.
when that happens, price continue to fall, regardless of asset class
sportsguy
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