The Surf Report

[ProfLogic]

Quote from ProfLogic:

Stop & Reverse . . .

Out 10502

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I will be shocked if it breaks out the bottom of the channel--

I apologize for paying attention, but that has already happened around 10:20, when we had a low of 107.87 for DJIA, and since your lower channel was 107.93, you should have been stopped out then.

For stop loss there is no 3 minutes limit, right?

 

[Lawrence Chan]

Surf, your call may be correct in terms of longer term effects ...

But taking NQ to limit down is needed before the vote starts.

 

[BoyBrutus]

Apply liberally

 

[Thunderdog]

Just an opinion here, if I may. I think that simply buying into weakness is more about dreaming than timing. I think that timing has more to do with buying at or after peceived price stabilization. That perception of stabilization may be wrong, but at least it gives a logical premise to buy. That's why buying during ongoing weakness without even perceived price stabilization in a specific trading time frame continues to perplex me. Surf, unless I am mistaken, you were buying right into softness when you were telling people to buy earlier this morning. This is what prompted my earlier remark today:

Quote from Thunderdog:

Because there are so many nice, selfless people vying to sell to you?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Just an opinion here, if I may. I think that simply buying into weakness is more about dreaming than timing. I think that timing has more to do with buying at or after peceived price stabilization. That perception of stabilization may be wrong, but at least it gives a logical premise to buy. That's why buying during ongoing weakness without even perceived price stabilization in a specific trading time frame continues to perplex me. Surf, unless I am mistaken, you were buying right into softness when you were telling people to buy earlier this morning. This is what prompted my earlier remark today:

Yes, I was wrong. Fully expecting the bill to pass. Couldn't have been more wrong on this call---however, when speculating, often if you wait, you will miss the move. my premise was logical, although wrong.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Pekelo:

I apologize for paying attention, but that has already happened around 10:20, when we had a low of 107.87 for DJIA, and since your lower channel was 107.93, you should have been stopped out then.

For stop loss there is no 3 minutes limit, right?

yes, the 3 minute rule is for stop level also.

surf

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, the 3 minute rule is for stop level also.

surf

OK, so where EXACYTLY were you stopped out after the vote?

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yes, I was wrong. Fully expecting the bill to pass. Couldn't have been more wrong on this call---however, when speculating, often if you wait, you will miss the move. my premise was logical, although wrong.

surf

I understand your point, but I don't exactly agree with it. I think the question to ask is how much of the reversal move you would be willing to give up (in your chosen time frame) while the market exhibits some price stability, as compared to almost arbitrarily stepping in front of a freight train and hoping for the best. Which alternative is potentially costlier and more likely to leave a mark?

(Admittedly, I am not destined for trading greatness.)

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Thunderdog:

I understand your point, but I don't exactly agree with it. I think the question to ask is how much of the reversal move you would be willing to give up (in your chosen time frame) while the market exhibits some price stability, as compared to almost arbitrarily stepping in front of a freight train and hoping for the best. Which alternative is potentially costlier and more likely to leave a mark?

(Admittedly, I am not destined for trading greatness.)

yes, as a technical trader, you have no choice but what you state.

however, technicals are a very small part of how market decisions are made here. the calls are far from arbritrary, being wrong doesn't equal arbitrary.

surf