The Surf Report

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you may want to check the shipping companys exports. containers are fully booked for next 2-3 months they wont even take you order. the weaker $ has spurred a massive trade. good for the going forward...not sure to what level over 6-12 months any thoughts?
 
Quote from spersky:

A few wrong calls will happen. Even if someone is 55% correct on his calls. I good trader can make money easily. Actually with less than 50% a good trader can make money.
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This comment isn't related to Surf but I agree a few wrong calls will happen but 45 to 50% isn't a few.
50% wrong calls will destroy the average trader because they will constantly be second guessing themselves as to "which" of every two trades is the looser. Psychologically it is a cancer.
The "coin toss" mentality plays out every day in the market and it kills traders every day as well. Any trader playing with a 50% accuracy record is just biding their time to MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure".
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

This comment isn't related to Surf but I agree a few wrong calls will happen but 45 to 50% isn't a few.
50% wrong calls will destroy the average trader because they will constantly be second guessing themselves as to "which" of every two trades is the looser. Psychologically it is a cancer.
The "coin toss" mentality plays out every day in the market and it kills traders every day as well. Any trader playing with a 50% accuracy record is just biding their time to MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure".
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yes, i agree.

good point prof!

surf
 
Quote from markyhabs2:

you may want to check the shipping companys exports. containers are fully booked for next 2-3 months they wont even take you order. the weaker $ has spurred a massive trade. good for the going forward...not sure to what level over 6-12 months any thoughts?
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thanks for that data marky. our fund/advisory business is looking at shipping derviatives currently. can you link me to your data source.

thanks surf
 
Quote from sportsguy:

the next big tradeable wave in oil is expected to be down, with the strengthening dollar. Surf is trying to catch that wave when it starts, but i suspect that its a bit farther away as he is usually weeks.months early on these types of trades

Correct on CROX, surf was, and i wish i had held the 40 puts all the way to March as i had bought them when surf mentioned CROX at 50

sportsguy
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thanks, SG. nicely stated.

surf:)
 
Quote from brokerbroker:

Hey Surfer,

Were can I trade the VIX futures? I think your right about VOl increasing. Thank you.



BB
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thanks for the kind words on the article. i had fun writing it. VIX spiked nicely today, looks like 21 plus by july is a lock.

try www.velocityfutures.com as a broker-- i believe they have every future product under the sun, plus free transactional Xtrader.

best, surf
 
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