That's fairly long-term, as price predictions go. What is the general nature of the research you refer to?
The Surf Report
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
- Status
it was a year prediction, not really long term at all. ever hear of the kondratriev wave? ( hint )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave
it's based on a variety of factors both fundamental and cyclical. we are entering a very interesting time in economic history, its going to be great to witness it unfold.
a pleasure as always, tdog.
sincerely,
surf
ps. some more sources of resources for you to understand our studies, leaving out the obvious direct oil resources.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fourth_Turning
Yes, I've heard of Kondratiev. However, I don't have much faith in specific price/time predictions, particularly those of a longer time horizon. I believe wishful thinking is an essential component of all such predictions. However, I do hope you're right.
P.S. Surfer, has it occurred to you that, if you believe in predictable cycles, then by default you must also believe in predictable trends, because a trend is but one leg of a cycle.
P.S. Surfer, has it occurred to you that, if you believe in predictable cycles, then by default you must also believe in predictable trends, because a trend is but one leg of a cycle.
Quote from Thunderdog:
Yes, I've heard of Kondratiev. However, I don't have much faith in specific price/time predictions, particularly those of a longer time horizon. I believe wishful thinking is an essential component of all such predictions. However, I do hope you're right.
P.S. Surfer, has it occurred to you that, if you believe in predictable cycles, then by default you must also believe in predictable trends, because a trend is but one leg of a cycle.
i am a humble, first degree minister of non predictive studies ( with multitudes of higher ranks above me ) who believes in limited descriptive not predictive value of cyclical research and some TA.
surf fest was much fun. you should try to make the next one.
surf
surf fest report here for those who couldn't make it:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1796909#post1796909
Hmm. A slight inconsistency, wouldn't you say? First you make a specific price/time prediction based at least in part on a Kondratiev wave, which you then describe as a descriptive tool rather than a predictive tool. If you are using a descriptive tool to make predictions, then how is it not a predictive tool in one form or another?
Thank you. By all accounts, it seems that your shindig jamboree cigar soirée was a success and that you were a gracious host. I'm sorry I missed it. I'll try to make the next one if I can muster up the necessary capitalization to cover the bus fare.
your funny, tdog.
your forgeting that it's a combination of factor---- these things such as TA or PSYCLES have potential to be BROADLY predictive-- similar to the long term up drift of stocks--- however, we drill down into the underlying forces of the psycles--- applying rigerous quantatative statistical methods to narrow the overall broad picture to specifics. it's far from perfect, but its all we have.
the future is unwritten--- joe strummer "the clash"
surf
ps. yes the little event was a great time. thanks for the kind words, perhaps annaland and i will paypal you bus ticket for next surf fest. ( do buses go to the artic circle?) be good.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=115818&perpage=6&pagenumber=12
SURF ALERT
GOLD exploding up here!!
YM collapsing
Bear dead, CITI next??
blood in the streets this week???????
stay tuned....
surf
GOLD exploding up here!!
YM collapsing
Bear dead, CITI next??
blood in the streets this week???????
stay tuned....
surf
- Status