The Surf Report
- Thread starter marketsurfer
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yes, i have no issue with your points. trades are relative sized to total capital. there is no other way to do it while speculating.
however, this does not preclude me from being happy with wins and disappointed with losses.
surf
yes, your correct. however, i don't trade big size in the index,
the liquidity doesnt effect me.
i have never had an issue with the breaks, etc.
surf
Quote from JSSPMK:
Since you are after substantial gains, then why would you want to be in a trade prior to price action confirming that your analyses are correct? I just don't get that, why welcome so much consecutive risk if your reward is much greater than risk?
although the size is always relative, it isn't a constant and varies within the parmeter depending on various factors with price action not being one of them. im not sure how else to explain it.
thanks,
surf
It is a good question and I already advised him about 2 months ago to switch. It has nothing to do with liquidity, but volatility and return.
The ES is simply outperforming the YM by at least 10-15%.
Consider this:
Between the Aug low and the Oct high:
ES gained 205 points : $10250 per contract
YM gained 1700 points: $8500 per contract
NQ gained 415 points: $8300 per contract
ER gained 110 points: $11000 per contract
IF (and it is a big if) Surf's system is profitable, he would get the best bang by using ES. Now somebody could make the case for ER, but I can understand if one doesn't like to use ER even for longer term.
But between the ES and YM, the ES is the clear winner, and why wouldn't Surf want to make an extra 10-15-20%?
Of course, when the system is losing, he loses less by using YM....
That's fine, based on you going after "substantial gains" I was referring to you constantly risking 1 to gain 10, so if you are after 10, then why go catching tops and losing 1 multiple times if you can go after 8 when price action confirms that this IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. I mean you did say it's not easy to properly time market turns, it's easier to join in once they do start, so why not just join the ride, instead of being chopped up.
Also, if you catch tops/bottoms by laying it out in futures and state that timing a turn is not easy, so I assume you take heat on quite a few occasions before trade either goes your way or you get stopped out, so why in the world would you not hedge your position with options?
Sometimes the solution to a problem is much simpler than we like to think. In your case I see the following:
1. You do not follow technical analyses - that leads to
2. Your entries are mistimed and you experience DDs - and that leads to
3. Either start implementing TA or start hedging.
thanks, sportsguy. great trading for you, too, very nice!
we are continuing to hold the YM shorts over the weekend. expecting further reality hitting of the index soon.
take care,
surf
Quote from JSSPMK:
That's fine, based on you going after "substantial gains" I was referring to you constantly risking 1 to gain 10, so if you are after 10, then why go catching tops and losing 1 multiple times if you can go after 8 when price action confirms that this IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. I mean you did say it's not easy to properly time market turns, it's easier to join in once they do start, so why not just join the ride, instead of being chopped up.
Also, if you catch tops/bottoms by laying it out in futures and state that timing a turn is not easy, so I assume you take heat on quite a few occasions before trade either goes your way or you get stopped out, so why in the world would you not hedge your position with options?
Sometimes the solution to a problem is much simpler than we like to think. In your case I see the following:
1. You do not follow technical analyses - that leads to
2. Your entries are mistimed and you experience DDs - and that leads to
3. Either start implementing TA or start hedging.
sure, i have no issue with your suggestions, other than the TA providing correct timing other than in hindsight. one can hedge, its not the way i choose to trade.
best,
surf
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