The Surf Report

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Wrong, wrong, wrong. Taking large risks is the only way you'll make it? Where'd you pick up that nugget of market wisdom?

The 3 goals of trading in order of importance, are:
1. Preserve your capital
2. Earn consistent returns
3. Earn large returns.

These rules apply to anyone trying to achieve long term success in the markets, and do not account for capitalization.

If you decide to take on this venture, knowing you are under capitalized, and not wanting to pursue the options for those who are, then you only have two choices. Grind it out and focus on slowly building your stake while following the above rules with a non-trading income to sustain you. Or bet it all red and hope for the best.

But to say that small retail traders can only make it by taking lopsided risks, well excuse me, but it looks pretty bush league for a self acclaimed market expert.

Quote from marketsurfer:

in case you are not aware, its EXTREMELY difficult to make a decent living as an independent trader as a business without starting with a substantial sum of capital. im not talking about working with a firm that provides real edges to its traders-- here it can be done. as an independent,, without a very large sum of capital, taking large risks in the only way one is going to make it unless, ofcourse, your satisfied with poverty level existence. otherwise you'll just churn and eventually burn--either slowly or catastrophically. remember, im talking about typical retail accounts here.

surf
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Quote from marketsurfer:

BRUTAL DEFEAT crushed on this trade.


taking a break here-- be back soon.


all the best,

surf:(
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Surf, I'm happy to see that you've been reading "How to be a Paid Chatroom Guru 101"

You deftly managed to leave your position open and closed both at the same time. Had the market come back down during your extended absence from ET, I am quite sure you would have been back here claiming that the position was still open. However, as it continued to go another 200pts against you, you were able to claim that you got out at a loss of only 200pts from Fed announcement. Keep up the good work.

Remember, ambiguity is your friend!
 
Quote from macal425:

Surf, I'm happy to see that you've been reading "How to be a Paid Chatroom Guru 101"

You deftly managed to leave your position open and closed both at the same time. Had the market come back down during your extended absence from ET, I am quite sure you would have been back here claiming that the position was still open. However, as it continued to go another 200pts against you, you were able to claim that you got out at a loss of only 200pts from Fed announcement. Keep up the good work.

Remember, ambiguity is your friend!
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im niether a guru or a paid chatroom Impresario.

regards,

surf:confused:
 
Although, this FOMC had the most fervor attached of the past few years, not sure why one would want to game the Fed on any announcement much less this one. You cannot outwit these guys, they hold ALL the cards. Surf will bounce back, he always does. Get back to basics. Bring back the old esignal-channel-wave charts surf!
 
Quote from satchel:

Although, this FOMC had the most fervor attached of the past few years, not sure why one would want to game the Fed on any announcement much less this one. You cannot outwit these guys, they hold ALL the cards. Surf will bounce back, he always does. Get back to basics. Bring back the old esignal-channel-wave charts surf!
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thanks for the support, Satchel. no defense for that trade, dumb move--bottom line.

surf
 
Quote from lescor:

Wrong, wrong, wrong. Taking large risks is the only way you'll make it? Where'd you pick up that nugget of market wisdom?

The 3 goals of trading in order of importance, are:
1. Preserve your capital
2. Earn consistent returns
3. Earn large returns.

These rules apply to anyone trying to achieve long term success in the markets, and do not account for capitalization.

If you decide to take on this venture, knowing you are under capitalized, and not wanting to pursue the options for those who are, then you only have two choices. Grind it out and focus on slowly building your stake while following the above rules with a non-trading income to sustain you. Or bet it all red and hope for the best.

But to say that small retail traders can only make it by taking lopsided risks, well excuse me, but it looks pretty bush league for a self acclaimed market expert.
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please note i'm not saying its impossible, just highly unlikely to make a living with a small retail acccount without taking outsized risks. Sure, with another source of income, one can make it--when i say "make a living" i mean purely from trading. capitalization MUST be accounted for if trading is your only source of income--- even huge returns on small capital base will be eaten up by the vig, losses, and taxes. i strongly suggest going the prop route for full time traders with a firm that teaches a real edge.

when your grinding it out, you also have the vig and bills to pay, which are depleting your capital daily--not to mention taxes. i stand by my contention that taking outsized risks is the ONLY way one is going to make a living with a small sized account.

yeah, one can point to dan zanger and some others who have done it, but i betcha ALL of the traders who made it huge took crazy risks that worked out.

surf
surf
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Actually, prices moved down the 10 to 30 points rather than up, as you had expected them to move, several seconds before 2:15 EST. This was inconsistent with your "full expectation," which would have been the tip off that your proposed scenario was not playing out as expected. This, in turn, would have signaled you to at least stand aside rather than pursue your expected strategy.

Am I wrong?
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yes, price moved my way ( short ) prior to the blast off.

yes, once again, hindsight is 20/20.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

yes, price moved my way ( short ) prior to the blast off.

yes, once again, hindsight is 20/20.

surf
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No. You're muddling the issue. This is what you wrote on page 905 of this thread:

Quote from marketsurfer:

im just now catching my breath and looking back at what happened. the market mistress handed me her legacy of brutality, a humbling experience--- i couldn't get out-- unreal. seconds prior to the announcement price pulled back on the YM about 10 points, this was not a good sign for the shorts, i was full expecting a move up of 10-30 points then a slam down-- but the opposite occured.
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According to your earlier post, you had been expecting a 10- to 30-point rise before the "slam" down. However, seconds before the announcement price actually moved down by that amount, which is the opposite of your "full" expectation. Therefore, by your own criteria, the market did not play out your way prior to the announcement. It may have moved "your way" because you were short and price went down pre-announcement, however, it was not "your way" according to your "fully expected" scenario.

20/20 nothing. If you had been on the sidelines and waited for your expected surge seconds before the announcement in order to confirm the validity of your scenario, you would have seen that it was not playing out and could have either stayed out or played it differently. I'm just going by what you wrote. Your "full" expectation.
 
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