The Surf Report

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Quote from PatrickQ:

I tell ya, been at this for awhile and I have learned THAT I have NO edge on the micro level in trading announcements such as this, so I was sure to be FLAT on everything!
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Amen bro.

FTR, I was expecting a move very much like the one that Surf described, the market will tend to fade the early move and trade back-and-forth on FOMC days.

From here on in, I'll be going to the movies. :D

Anyone know of a good website that I can use to give me a heads-up? - I get the next day info, but I want to be able to plan in advance, and I'm a pure technician, so I tend not to read voluminous reports anyway, it always promotes a trade bias.

Thanks in advance,

JJ
 
Quote from optioncoach:

Didn't he blow up several times lol :).

Short or long as long as you are right.
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Agree. But the point was that the guy that Surfy worships above all others, would not short the stock market. Because of the long term upward bias it is a lower probability trade.

And in front of a Fed meeting, especially a Fed that has recently demonstrated an affinity for helping the markets, it is a crazy gamble to short. Negative edge.

VN would be disappointed I suspect. That is, if Surfeur actually ever talked to him... :p
 
I believe it would be best if we all recognized that the OP is conducting paper trades with the idea of culling dialogue for and against him. Once we accept this premise, the journal becomes much more understandable and perhaps somewhat entertaining.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Surf, have you seen the movie "Rounders"? One of my favorite movies. It's loaded with quotes that directly apply to trading. Here are a few worthy of note that apply to your situation.

MIKE: You play for a living, it's like any other job. You don't gamble, you grind it out. Your goal is to win one big bet an hour. That's it. Get your money in when you have the best of it, protect it when you don't. Don't give anything away.

MIKE: Always leave yourself outs. Applies to a player's life away from the game same as it does at the table.

Then this famous line from Knish responding to Matt Damon's charge that he plays his game too tight and doesn't take any big risks.

Mike: "You see all the angles. You never have the stones to play one."

Knish: ""Stones"? You little punk.

I'm not playing for the thrill of f***ing victory here. I owe rent, alimony, child support. I play for money. My kids eat.

I got stones enough not to chase cards, action, or f***ing pipe dreams of winning the World Series on ESPN.

You want me to, uh, call some people, try and buy you some time, I will. Place to stay or the truck. No problem.

But about the money I gotta do this. I gotta say no."

Always leave yourself outs Surf. Always leave yourself outs.
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first time is saw that movie,it was all about trading to me.....i did`nt see the cards but contracts in place of the cards.
any up & coming trader should be required to watch that movie just as reading ROSO is a prerequisite to a trader.
that movie rejuvinated the entire texas hold`em/poker circuit single handedly.

i actually watched them film the Elks lodge seen where they "caught the hanger" in ridgefield park nj....behind the rialto theater.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

im just now catching my breath and looking back at what happened. the market mistress handed me her legacy of brutality, a humbling experience--- i couldn't get out-- unreal. seconds prior to the announcement price pulled back on the YM about 10 points, this was not a good sign for the shorts, i was full expecting a move up of 10-30 points then a slam down-- but the opposite occured...
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I read your post yesterday evening, and I just have to ask. If you "fully expected" a 10- to 30-point move up at around announcement time and then a slam down, then why did you not wait for this expected up move to validate and confirm your projected scenario prior to going short? I know it's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, but if this was your "full expectation," then I would think that you could have readily sold into your expected up move that was supposed to precede the drop you expected. In this way, you could have positioned yourself in accordance with your full expectations after price action gave your scenario some preliminary confirmation. And since the market did not provide that preliminary confirmation, you could have stood aside.

I'm just asking.

(As for me, I don't have such finely tuned expectations of price action at around announcement time, so I step aside altogether.)
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

I read your post yesterday evening, and I just have to ask. If you "fully expected" a 10- to 30-point move up at around announcement time and then a slam down, then why did you not wait for this expected up move to validate and confirm your projected scenario prior to going short? I know it's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, but if this was your "full expectation," then I would think that you could have readily sold into your expected up move that was supposed to precede the drop you expected. In this way, you could have positioned yourself in accordance with your full expectations after price action gave your scenario some preliminary confirmation. And since the market did not provide that preliminary confirmation, you could have stood aside.

I'm just asking.

(As for me, I don't have such finely tuned expectations of price action at around announcement time, so I step aside altogether.)
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of course, hindsight is 20/20. this upmove was to occur prior to the announcement, not after it, and a pull back actually occured prior to the announcement. had i waited, i would have shorted as soon as the spike up hesitated, once again this would have resulted in losses as the move continued violently upwards smoking all shorts.

surf
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

You really are quite the all-or-nothing guy. You seem to need to be the hero, tragic or otherwise. Glory or blaze of glory. It seems to me that you view the markets more as a casino in which to make your mark and gratify your ego than as a business in which to earn your living. I think that you are more than embracing risk. I think that you are reveling in it. You are aggrandizing risk rather than trying to control it. But as you noted, we each make our choice. Good luck with yours.
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in case you are not aware, its EXTREMELY difficult to make a decent living as an independent trader as a business without starting with a substantial sum of capital. im not talking about working with a firm that provides real edges to its traders-- here it can be done. as an independent,, without a very large sum of capital, taking large risks in the only way one is going to make it unless, ofcourse, your satisfied with poverty level existence. otherwise you'll just churn and eventually burn--either slowly or catastrophically. remember, im talking about typical retail accounts here.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

of course, hindsight is 20/20. this upmove was to occur prior to the announcement, not after it, and a pull back actually occured prior to the announcement. had i waited, i would have shorted as soon as the spike up hesitated, once again this would have resulted in losses as the move continued violently upwards smoking all shorts.

surf
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Actually, prices moved down the 10 to 30 points rather than up, as you had expected them to move, several seconds before 2:15 EST. This was inconsistent with your "full expectation," which would have been the tip off that your proposed scenario was not playing out as expected. This, in turn, would have signaled you to at least stand aside rather than pursue your expected strategy.

Am I wrong?
 
actually, its the retail guys who tend to blow out who do stupid amateur things like hold on to losers too long and take positions through fomc
 
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