The Surf Report

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ok thanks, missed that. looks like your true timeframe is "in between". seems you are pursuing much larger waves, but your entry/exits are short term perspective. looks like your channel system often cannot handle a level of fib retrace and you're shaken in that in the "tweener" zone. this will happen often when trading a market index.

have you considered applying your system on subsectors of the market, ie oil, financials, etc.

Quote from marketsurfer:

please read page 863. took loss on the latest one.

surf
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Quote from marketsurfer:

Dave: I will make it a point to see the Motorcycle Diaries. Thank you for the recommendation, Give us a brief synopsis of the movie plot and how it relates to what you do.

Manuel: It's a story of a young Che Guevara. Che turned down positions of power to do what he thought was right. He could of easily been a limousine revolutionary but instead suffered tremendously for what he believed was the correct and proper thing to do.
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I stopped reading right there.... this has nothing to do with this man's investing credentials, but:

If somebody is of Cuban birth and actually believes that Che Guevara was a hero it can only mean one of three things:
1. he is a moron
2. he came over with the Mariel boatlift as a criminal
3. he came over after living there as a sympathizer of Castro's communist regime

Che Guevara was a murderer who personally signed the death warrants of hundreds of people he and Fidel called "gusanos" (worms), basically landowners....small ones too. Actually capitalists were included in that term, and they most certainly would have included Manny himself, had he lived there in his capitalist reincarnation. Inform yourself if you dont believe me. (The film he is speaking about is a tragically naive Hollywood fantasy).

It is typical for Ex- Communists or Socialists to end up as Capitalists... similar to Ex- Nazis in Europe that ended up in the Stasi in East Germany ... these Ex- Communists are the ones that should be- and are- called "pinstripe socialists" or "limousine liberals".
It is ironic but common to hear somebody like that talk nobly about "the correct and proper thing to do".
 
Man I like this, an intelligent debate, without me having to get out the "gentlemens weapons" to defend "Mah Honor Suh".

Ok lets go, from what I can see this post was made on 2/13/06, and so my question, is that opinion still valid? I don't think so, why? Well from the time of this post the price has been as high as 59.81, so I would say 60.00 is major resistance, but that is all I can see.

Remember the price quoted in the post was 26.55 now the close on 8/25/07 was 58.99 with over 5 mio shares traded. Now my question is, other than a gut feeling that the fad will run out, and a kind of double top, I don't see it . As I said before, I think that these products are a fad, but it doesnt matter what I think. Right now I cannot see the justification for shorting and certainly not for holding though a big drawdown.


The Ever Opinionated VIPER
 
Quote from TradeViper:

Man I like this, an intelligent debate, without me having to get out the "gentlemens weapons" to defend "Mah Honor Suh".

Ok lets go, from what I can see this post was made on 2/13/06, and so my question, is that opinion still valid? I don't think so, why? Well from the time of this post the price has been as high as 59.81, so I would say 60.00 is major resistance, but that is all I can see.

Remember the price quoted in the post was 26.55 now the close on 8/25/07 was 58.99 with over 5 mio shares traded. Now my question is, other than a gut feeling that the fad will run out, and a kind of double top, I don't see it . As I said before, I think that these products are a fad, but it doesnt matter what I think. Right now I cannot see the justification for shorting and certainly not for holding though a big drawdown.


The Ever Opinionated VIPER
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hey viper,

great to see you back! yeah, im well aware thats a dated piece but i found it interesting none the less. manny has made some great calls and it quite the character to hang out with--but ofcourse not everything he says comes to pass.

with that said, im still convinced CROX is a good short here--- yes, i got in too early, but i always believe too early is better than too late.

hope all is well,

surf:)
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

...im still convinced CROX is a good short here--- yes, i got in too early, but i always believe too early is better than too late.
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Yes, fewer things in life go so well together as supreme confidence and poor timing.

I do wish that your trade works out, but I have to wonder whether that would only set you up for something bigger down the road.
 
here is the death channel for this week in the YM:


13427---13353 remember short below, long above and FLAT in the channel.

staying short CROX the dog with fleas.

regards,

surf
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Yes, fewer things in life go so well together as supreme confidence and poor timing.

I do wish that your trade works out, but I have to wonder whether that would only set you up for something bigger down the road.
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Exactly. The next time he might take a massive shot by trading a 200 lot.
 
The thing about "Surf" is that he is so much like Doug Kass of SeaBreeze Partners who took a tremendous hit in P&L as well as self-esteem in late 2006, early 2007. It was almost embarassing to watch him on CNBC and take all of that "ribbing".
But ! Look at him now. He stuck to his story. His short positions have done well.
 
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