thanks for the annotated chart.
with the way you describe price, one can literally justify any market move in the future and say "see i told you so" and be correct.
regards
marketsurfer---<i> plowing fields and burning witches since 1999</i>
The Surf Report
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thanks for the annotated chart.
with the way you describe price, one can literally justify any market move in the future and say "see i told you so" and be correct.
regards
marketsurfer---<i> plowing fields and burning witches since 1999</i>
HOPE is a four letter word in trading. What you are not getting is that the Dow's annual range is not that big. (unless you are hoping for a big meltdown) This year it has been -4% to +14%...
Had you shorted mid-October for a 10% drop, I would have said: good strategy. But you went short AFTER an already 10% drop. What had more probability, a bounce or another 10% drop? And you still got lucky and your position went up 230 pts, but you failed to lock that in.
So if you want 1000 pts moves, start the position after a big runup (short) or meltdown (long), or just back B1S2's position in the ES thread, although he has a Surf-Syndrome because he also failed to lock in a nice 80 ES pts unrealized gain...
P.S.: A good trader adapts to the market. If the market goes sideways stop waiting for the 1000 pts move and start taking 200 pts gains...
... and speaking of "I told you so's" here's our chart again, with price action pretty much taking the path that I'd described it would ... much to no one's (but Market Surfer's) amazement.
You're about -333 YM pts in the hole Surf, maybe that's your magic number, speaking of numerology, this thing has GOT to start retracing soon (you hope!)
.Of course, being an avowed trend trader, I'll be there to capture whatever side of the trend price is moving on.
Wow, over 20 years in the business and he still can't find a trend.
JJ
...or one could post live trades (paper or real) and prove that :
- TA works
- it is possible to time the market
- one can use sensible money management, thus having a consistently growing equity curve
Wait a minute! What a strange idea! Let me think if someone already did that!
[thinking]...........
Hey, I have just remembered! I did it! I can happily report that after making 8 ES points this morning (while walking the dog), my Journal has just passed the 200 ES points mark (2000 YM for you) and up YTD 14% (+4%) unleveraged.
So I am either extremely lucky and an enigma, or contrary to what you think, it is possible to time the market by using TA.
What say you, Surf?
What -pray tell- does this evasive blather mean: "i don't use the standard risk metrics on per trade basis"???
Unless you are just playing grownup, you must have SOME risk metrics, no?
- You do have a stop, don't you- Y/N?
- The stop is a certain number of points away, right- Y/N?
- You presumably have a position size, right (number of lots)-Y/N?
- So, you must know how much you are risking on a trade in Dollars, correct? Just multiply stop times number of lots.
So- indulge me- how much of your account (percentage wise) are you risking on this specific YM trade?
Those are very good questions Vienna (and honorable mention to Pekelo too
), it's pretty obvious that Surf doesn't actually know what the hell he is doing, and currently is in hope and pray mode.I would just love to get some input from any of those 100 million hedge funds mentioned, any academics, or hey, even Pinocchio in terms of the questions posed here (Overtooled and candles can chime in too, but we already knkow they won't have anything even remotely intelligible to bring to the table).
JJ
On reflection, we should probably leave marketsurfer alone. He is doing what he wants to do, he defends what he does and he apparently enjoys it. Remember, this is someone who has been at this thing for a while now and has even been interviewed as a "master trader" by some other web site. (Surfer has referred to this interview from time to time. Innerworth, perhaps?) So who are we to argue with what brings him happiness and joy?
I am reminded of the coach on Cheers, who would take a tumble down a flight of stairs to get a woman's attention. I'm not suggesting that surfer is intentionally putting on losing trades to get our attention. However, when they do arise (with surprising frequency), I suspect he draws soothing comfort from the attention everyone gives him. Essentially, we are providing a soapbox for the tragic hero to assert his righteousness.
I am reminded of the coach on Cheers, who would take a tumble down a flight of stairs to get a woman's attention. I'm not suggesting that surfer is intentionally putting on losing trades to get our attention. However, when they do arise (with surprising frequency), I suspect he draws soothing comfort from the attention everyone gives him. Essentially, we are providing a soapbox for the tragic hero to assert his righteousness.
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