The Surf Report
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I think the word "prediction" covers a lot of ground. On the one hand, you may have someone who believes that the market will move 24.5 points between now and 1:57 PM the day after tomorrow. And on the other hand, you may have someone else who acts on a momentary directional bias, which then may or may not develop into a meaningful move following entry. I suppose that both scenarios can be described as prediction, albeit one somewhat more loosely than the other. It goes without saying, although I think it was Taleb who said it, that the more specific your prediction, the more likely you are to get it wrong.
Prediction -
1. an act of predicting.
2. an instance of prophecy.
Read -
1. to look at carefully so as to understand the meaning of (something written, printed, etc.)
2. to utter aloud or render in speech (something written, printed, etc.)
3. to have such knowledge of (a language) as to be able to understand things written in it: to be able to read French.
4. to apprehend the meaning of
5. to apprehend or interpret the meaning of (gestures, movements, signals, or the like
6. to make out the significance of by scrutiny or observation: a skilled sailor reads the cloudy sky as the threat of a storm; a fisherman skilled in reading a stream for potential pools.
7. to anticipate, expect, or calculate by observation: At the line of scrimmage, the quarterback read a blitz and called an audible.
8. to foresee, foretell, or predict
Notice that "predict" is part of the definition but not the foundation of the word "READ".
I read (observe) price oscillations as anyone skilled in a precise and specific manner would.
Someone NOT a skilled race car driver can not READ and drive at Indianapolis.
Someone NOT a skilled flyfisherman can not READ and fish a swift moving stream.
Someone NOT a skilled high end sailor can not READ and sail in the middle of the Pacific.
I am simply the master of my own charting environment and if you do not know what that environment is made up of or one has no experience in navigating in that specific environment then commenting on it is not only ignorant but stupid.
It would be the same as me critiquing Tom Brady for what he does on the field based on my opinions and observations of what he does from the couch in my living room . . . I would be a fool for even thinking I could.
Predicting to me means not having utter confidence in the decision making process or in-other-words . . . guessing. To better understand what I mean interchange the words "predict" and "read" to what a quarterback does in regards to the decision making process he goes through relating to the opposing team's defense.
To someone outside of my environment the terms will seem immaterial and they will not understand the unique and objective differences. To someone that has experienced what I experience reading my charts, they "SEE" the difference.
yes, i agree. very much like plogics "russian doll" statements. HE CAN"T LOSE with the way the statements are made. this fools the SEMINAR DREAMERS and FAST MONEY SCHEMERS. but not those who look objectively at what is being said.
then the PERSONAL attacks--- simply very poor form!
regards,
surf
So, let's see how things are going in the Surf shack as the more erudite among the Elite Traders discuss the more intangible aspects of whether good trading has predictive qualities, or not.
Yep, just as everyone suspected, he's giving it back as we speak.
Good thing he doesn't actually have to make money with his trades ...
JJ
Yep, just as everyone suspected, he's giving it back as we speak.
Good thing he doesn't actually have to make money with his trades ...
JJ
I'm not at all familiar with proflogic's approach to take sides. Rather, I was simply demonstrating that the term prediction can be loosely interpreted to mean just about anything. For example, I subscribe to the second scenario in my previous post, whereas I think the first example is outright wishful thinking. Yet both can be construed as "prediction."
You started the personal attacks and if you can't take the truth don't make the comments. If you don't want constantly reminded you are a liar and have no honor, put me on ignore and stop commenting on that which you know nothing about.
Trading is anything BUT a fast money game. Of course you wouldn't know that only paper trading. Trading is a skilled environment and like any skill it takes a lot of consistent practice, a lot of screen time and a lot of personal research. These are things you are unwilling to participate in.
Losses occur anytime one trades but making sound consistent objective decisions limit the losses in ones trading. This is simply common sense, something else that seems to escape you.
You have absolutely no clue what it is to be objective and that's because you have no point of reference.
I think maybe someone forgot to tell that to JimmyJam:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1689757#post1689757
Specifically, I draw the reader's attention to JimmyJam's use of the words "very doable" and "easily" in his proposed scenario.
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