looks like the intraday dip buyers are gettting shook out of the collective coma today, as each mini rally is being met with stronger selling in the YM. holding shorts here.
regards, surf
regards, surf
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The Surf Report
- Thread starter marketsurfer
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shorting this contract--- almost free money here
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=491214&z=1181148667000
surf
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=491214&z=1181148667000
surf
perfect time here--short @ 46 intrade binary close > 150 down djia
small dinner money side trade as the shorts are kicking butt today!
small dinner money side trade as the shorts are kicking butt today!
good day today at the shack. picked up some dinner money with the binary short that expired at zero, holding YM shorts with nice profts into thursday.
thanks for the well wishes,
regards,
surf
thanks for the well wishes,
regards,
surf
Earlier in the week, my friend phil advised that Morgan Stanley has issued a Triple Sell Signal. Only issued 5 times in 20 years--- significant for the overall US equity market?? Time will tell. Holding YM shorts:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1845658/posts
<i>Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.
Morgan Stanley warns the 'mid-cycle rally is over'
Teun Draaisma, chief of European equities strategist for the US investment bank, said the triple warning was a "very powerful" signal that had been triggered just five times since 1980.
"Interest rates are rising and reaching critical levels. This matters more than growth for equities, so we think the mid-cycle rally is over. Our model is forecasting a 14pc correction over the next six months, but it could be more serious," he said. Mr Draaisma said the MSCI index of 600 European and British equities had dropped by an average of 15.2pc over six months after each "Full House" signal, with falls of 25.2pc after September 1987 and 26.2pc after April 2002. "We prefer to be on the right side of these odds," he said.
The first of the three signals Morgan Stanley monitors is a "composite valuation indicator" that divides the price/earnings ratio on stocks by bond yields. It measures "median" share prices that capture the froth of the merger boom, rather than relying on a handful of big companies on the major indexes.
"If you look at all shares, the p/e ratio is at an all-time high of 20," he said.
The other two gauges measure fundamentals such as growth and inflation, as well as risk appetite. "Investors are taking far too much comfort from global liquidity. Markets always return to fundamental value, so people could be in for a rude awakening. This is the greater fool theory," he said. "The trigger may be rate rises by the Bank of Japan, or a widening of credit spreads. There are lots of little triggers."
Morgan Stanley is not predicting a recession, believing bond yields will fall during a correction and act as an "automatic stabiliser" for the world economy. Once the market shakes off the latest excesses, it's back to the races.</i>
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1845658/posts
<i>Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.
Morgan Stanley warns the 'mid-cycle rally is over'
Teun Draaisma, chief of European equities strategist for the US investment bank, said the triple warning was a "very powerful" signal that had been triggered just five times since 1980.
"Interest rates are rising and reaching critical levels. This matters more than growth for equities, so we think the mid-cycle rally is over. Our model is forecasting a 14pc correction over the next six months, but it could be more serious," he said. Mr Draaisma said the MSCI index of 600 European and British equities had dropped by an average of 15.2pc over six months after each "Full House" signal, with falls of 25.2pc after September 1987 and 26.2pc after April 2002. "We prefer to be on the right side of these odds," he said.
The first of the three signals Morgan Stanley monitors is a "composite valuation indicator" that divides the price/earnings ratio on stocks by bond yields. It measures "median" share prices that capture the froth of the merger boom, rather than relying on a handful of big companies on the major indexes.
"If you look at all shares, the p/e ratio is at an all-time high of 20," he said.
The other two gauges measure fundamentals such as growth and inflation, as well as risk appetite. "Investors are taking far too much comfort from global liquidity. Markets always return to fundamental value, so people could be in for a rude awakening. This is the greater fool theory," he said. "The trigger may be rate rises by the Bank of Japan, or a widening of credit spreads. There are lots of little triggers."
Morgan Stanley is not predicting a recession, believing bond yields will fall during a correction and act as an "automatic stabiliser" for the world economy. Once the market shakes off the latest excesses, it's back to the races.</i>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from marketsurfer:
Yesterday, my friend phil advised that Morgan Stanley has issued a Triple Sell Signal. Only issued 5 times in 20 years--- significant for the overall US equity market?? Time will tell. Holding YM shorts:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1845658/posts
<i>Morgan Stanley has advised clients to slash exposure to the stock market after its three key warning indicators began flashing a "Full House" sell signal for the first time since the dotcom bust.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manipulative f*cks...
maintaining YM shorts at this time, flat in eur/usd. looks like an interesting day is shaping up, expecting additional downside to continue. time will tell.
surf
surf
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