the surf report--part 2

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Quote from marketsurfer:

the potential for a "black monday" is in play. we shall see.
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The "potential" is always there for anything. Probability is what matters and what we should focus on. Right now, IMHO the probability of the mkt going up is higher here than it going down.
 
Quote from TheStudent:

surf,

you're back! and no longer in disguise!

good to have you again.
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hello my brother,

was in NYC wednesday, sorry i missed you. its still in the works--got sidetracked--- happy to see you are well.

best,

surfer
 
Quote from Babak:

The "potential" is always there for anything. Probability is what matters and what we should focus on. Right now, IMHO the probability of the mkt going up is higher here than it going down.
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correct and not correct. my studies indicate that the probability is higher for a nice drop monday--- but you are totally correct, one really never knows untill after the fact.

surf:)
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

correct and not correct. my studies indicate that the probability is higher for a nice drop monday--- but you are totally correct, one really never knows untill after the fact.

surf:)
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My studies indicate the same too. I think the market might start strong just as a follow through to today's action but the sellers will come out strong. The last 8 out of 9 days were down, so every one was expecting some type of bounce. I had tightened my stops on my short positions and got stopped out today.

I did go back and looked at previous bottoms and none of the bottoms were formed when the bonds were tanking. There was almost 5X more new lows than new highs in NYSE and almost 3X in Nasdaq. This sure doesn't look like a bottom to me. I guess only time will tell but I'll short ES on Monday morning with a stop around 1205.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

my studies indicate that the probability is higher for a nice drop monday

surf:)
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i remember this syndrome. surfer, enters the market based on his studies rather than his system and we see him within the midsts of a 5% index drawdown!

good thing about your journal, we can see how biases negatively correlate to system returns
:)

how educational
 
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