The Surf Report--part 2

[Samsara]

Quote from Pekelo:

Alright, alright, the people have spoken, let's keep this Journal open, even though:

Odds of Surf deleting bad calls: 50%
Odds of this being not real money: 98%
Odds of Surf not having any system: 100%
People want to read this no matter what: PRICELESS!!!

Agreed

I still can't suss out what draws me to read grandstanding I clearly don't respect, but the bombs and barbs are still more interesting than other ET threads.

All things considered, surf is entertaining. To paraphrase Seykota, he's getting what he wants in the end.

 

[Arjun1]

Quote from Spooz Top:

He beat himself......that would be the most painful realization of all irregardless of the true/hypothetical capital.

His initial call was great....his entry at 80.25 was pinpoint....surf beating himself...priceless.

just goes to show just how many ways one can lose in this game,even after pinpointing time & entry points....two of the most difficult actions to master.

this game will turn ones guts to tapioca in a few short years & strip you of your sanity,dignity & indentity in one swipe.

Excellent post.
The Worst thing for a trader is to Be Right & Lose Money due to trade/emotion mismanagement.
Marketsurfer's Crash Call is the kind of call that makes one's Career, just like Paulson's subprime short or PTJ's short in 87.
But MS managed to lose money.

IMO the culprit is Variable Position Sizing. There are far too many traders that trade very well and make decent money trading 1 contract and then lose it all trading 4+ contracts. Its impossible to recover from such a loss, financially or emotionally. MS made money trading 1-10 contracts and then lost it trading 30+ contracts.
If he only kept position size fixed and went All In with tight stops - he would've nailed an entry after a couple of small stop outs.

I've had lots of Devastating Losses in my career and each one of them was because of variable position sizing. I now go All In on an account with only 5% of my net worth and I haven't had any such losses since.

IMO MS is a good trader. But no individual trader can handle variable position sizing as a strategy. That strategy is almost always a characteristic of every single blow up.

 

[Grandluxe]

surf LOST 100k???? No way, how is he going to tell his wife

 

[Samsara]

Quote from Arjun1:

But no individual trader can handle variable position sizing as a strategy. That strategy is almost always a characteristic of every single blow up.

I see where you're coming from, but I think position sizing problems are usually a symptom and not a cause. The cause is often a mess of emotions and concepts of "self" that end up throwing the trader against an indifferent market.

A systematic approach to both money management and risk management make varying size a lot less stressful. There are plenty of ways to alter position size within these boundaries to take advantage of sustained movements without flirting with ruin.

If you're inclined to tie up your sense of self with your trading though, you'll eventually cross that horrible threshold of pain that makes you question everything. It happens to all of us. Where you go from there determines whether you build a robust strategy or blow up.

 

[Red_Ink_inc]

Quote from Simex:

BS.
I was online at 3am ET when you posted:

1. You were stopped for 1163
2. You went long at 1173 *30 contracts, with a stop loss at 1155

And then, within 20 minutes, when I refreshed, your post was gone.
Explain that one

....I kept waiting for you to close at 1185 for a flat combined total, but you let it drift all the way into loss....

Funny thing, I was online at that time as well (west coast) and I saw that post too. He was allegedly stopped @1163 then entered into an impulsive long of 30@1173 with the stop you mentioned.

Then poof, the post is gone as are the losses.

Mr Magna, the heckling here all boils down to credibility. Do you think this is a credible thing to do, to mislead the good readers? Your thoughts would be appreciated here Mr. Magna.

 

[icarus618]

Quote from Red_Ink_inc:

Funny thing, I was online at that time as well (west coast) and I saw that post too. He was allegedly stopped @1163 then entered into an impulsive long of 30@1173 with the stop you mentioned.

Then poof, the post is gone as are the losses.

* * *

I think it was those damn FLEXIONS that submitted and then deleted the post. I swear, they also keep stealing a sock from my dryer every time I do the wash.

(Sorry, Magna, couldn't resist.)


To give Surfy a bit of credit, he does appear to be aware of how markets operate. Of course there will be a rally as the next phase, and it is likely to be very sharp. The problem is the timing, obviously. Hopefully you have some bullets left, Surfy, to take advantage when it arrives. Or just reload the simulator and you're good to go.

In Hershey parlance, Surfy was too early on his p2. There is ALWAYS a p2, however, then nondom to p3, then resumption/failure. Sharp rally p3's often look very scary, but they are the best trades and people who look for "confirmation" will be left behind on the resumption. Complex p3's will jig people out and lull them to sleep at the end before BO and resumption.

 

[Samsara]

Quote from icarus618:

I think it was those damn FLEXIONS that submitted and then deleted the post. I swear, they also keep stealing a sock from my dryer every time I do the wash.

(Sorry, Magna, couldn't resist.)


To give Surfy a bit of credit, he does appear to be aware of how markets operate.

Yessah, he does get things like capitulation and going against the herd during high vol events. But based on the price levels he quotes he relies on TA to take those positions.

Trying to cloak his generic TA as if it were a secret reading of the COT reports etc. gives him that special guru sheen of which he so wants us to be in awe

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Grandluxe:

surf LOST 100k???? No way, how is he going to tell his wife

He could put it this way:

"Honey, I have just lost 13 Madoff buoys."

It would be interesting to ask Annaland about the reality of the trades, I don't suppose she would lie for Surf. It is kind of ironic that the Madoff item he bought is named Bullshit, I mean Bullship.

Can you imagine Surf was so shy not so long ago?:

"Dave from Long Island (he wouldn’t give his last name) said he wanted the ring buoy from Madoff’s yacht that said “Bullship, N.Y.” to hang in his office. He works at a hedge fund."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33964845/Madoff_Auction_4_750_for_a_Decoy_Duck

 

[Spooz Top]

Quote from Samsara:
But based on the price levels he quotes he relies on TA to take those positions.

Trying to cloak his generic TA as if it were a secret reading of the COT reports etc. gives him that special guru sheen of which he so wants us to be in awe [/B]

Bingo!

 

[EPrado]

Quote from Pekelo:

He could put it this way:

"Honey, I have just lost 13 Madoff buoys."

It would be interesting to ask Annaland about the reality of the trades, I don't suppose she would lie for Surf. It is kind of ironic that the Madoff item he bought is named Bullshit, I mean Bullship.

Can you imagine Surf was so shy not so long ago?:

"Dave from Long Island (he wouldn’t give his last name) said he wanted the ring buoy from Madoff’s yacht that said “Bullship, N.Y.” to hang in his office. He works at a hedge fund."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33964845/Madoff_Auction_4_750_for_a_Decoy_Duck

What I am kinda confused about is Surf said ( after his first 30 lot trade last week...which was a helluva short entry) he only does 30 lot trades on those special occasions where everything lines up. Kind of rare occasions (5% of the time) So in the last 24 hrs he had 4 of those?. Maybe the first one...but the next three were tilt trades.

I'll say it til the cows come home...you can have a great strategy, but without proper risk mgmt/discipline you will never get anywhere. Today's events on here were a great example.

No to change the subject, but a lot of talk about premium sellers who got absolutely obliterated the last few days....hopefully Surf's guy Neiderhoffer isn't still playing that game....