The Surf Report--part 2

[EPrado]

Quote from marketsurfer:

@ eprado

while i agree with your risk management for 99% of the time--- on occasion there develops a very clear situation with no question what is going to happen-- when this occurs, one needs to push it to the wall or forever live in a land of would of could of should of. this is not a game for the meek or one for scared money. Either you push it, but only when the time is right, or might as well get a salary. The rest of the time is waiting, testing the market and learning.

keeping the same size over and over again is a JOB not what this game is all about.

staying short

surf

I agree mostly with this...but again, one should NEVER risk their whole account on one trade. In your situation the mkt would not have had to move that much to wipe you out.

You can say there are clear situations where you feel you have a huge advantage, but even then it's not 100%. Nothing is Surf. If they announced there was a debt deal, you would have been finished instantly. To me that is not a scenario where you had a big edge at all.

The problem with your thinking is all it takes is once, where your timing was off and your are done. Remind you of somebody?

I agree with the rest of what you said, especially about the waiting for another set up and learning/looking for other things.

 

[marketsurfer]

The possibility is very real that this may be the start of a historic market crash. A crash so severe that it will financially wound folks to such an extent that the public's interest in the stock market will become non existent.--- far beyond the 1970's malaise--- but a must to occur prior to the grandest and most glorious bull market the world has ever experienced.

a true lucifuge style descent triggered by the economic unravelling of a world superpower known as the United States of America. Trapped by its own devices, the top heavy leadership is stymied in such a way as to be frozen with every idea a catch 22.

The largest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind may have commenced. There is blood in the streets....

surf

 

[Spooz Top]

Poetic....but too bad you are not truly positioned.

i`ll second Red Inks innocuous request..or bust.

 

[marketsurfer]

 

[Spooz Top]

That would have resembled Surf in a nose dive,less wings...again... had there been even a short term resolution!

carry on....nice choice on Tremblant,btw...& congrats.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from marketsurfer:

The possibility is very real that this may be the start of a historic market crash.

But just in case you are wrong, why don't we put a stop loss at 1300??

Nice holding by the way, but the trade is not over until you cash out....

 

[marketsurfer]

@ pekelo

Yes, its all speculative untill one cashes out--- or use mark to market accounting ---

with this said, stops for entire position at 1305

surf

 

[EPrado]

Quote from marketsurfer:

@ pekelo

Yes, its all speculative untill one cashes out--- or use mark to market accounting ---

with this said, stops for entire position at 1305

surf

How do you handle the weekend risk? Ideally if today was a Thursday you just put in a 1305 stop at 4:30 pm and sit back. Otherwise you are at the mercy of wherever it opens Sunday night.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from EPrado:

How do you handle the weekend risk? Ideally if today was a Thursday you just put in a 1305 stop at 4:30 pm and sit back. Otherwise you are at the mercy of wherever it opens Sunday night.

A gap is possible, but I am betting against it since nothing has changed in the underlying price drivers.

by way of further explanation, I believe the market will "tip its hand" prior to a gap higher by taking out the stop.

surf

 

[EPrado]

Quote from marketsurfer:

A gap is possible, but I am betting against it since nothing has changed in the underlying price drivers.

by way of further explanation, I believe the market will "tip its hand" prior to a gap higher by taking out the stop.

surf

I hear ya. So you believe any close below 1305 is bearish enough in your mind where the mkt will not gap up. Makes sense 99% of the time....it just seems the whole mkt's direction is being based on the deal being made. The way they are talking on tv though, they are not even close.