The Surf Report--part 2

Quote from Fireplace:

When I set out to try my hand at trading in the late 1990's, I didn't ask or need anyone's 'evidence' that the mkt provided tradeable moves. That was very apparent from just looking at the mkt each day. Did I know anything about how to catch those moves back then.....hell no. But I dug deep into the data and tried to learn from each passing day. After a couple years, I had a very good system.

You should stop with the 'cheap salesman' remarks and try your hand at looking at things from different angles, you may surprise yourself.

Food for thought. :)
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I guess you simply can't produce and back up your statements. Keep the noobs believing, just don't spread the nonsense here. It's not welcome. The surf report is not a place for phony statements, false humility, and regurgitated trading book wisdom. The generic guru garbage is boring

However, if you wish to post before the fact market calls, without ambiguity, your more than welcome to use this thread as a platform OR provide actual information rather than subtle self ego strokes.

Surf
 
Quote from Fireplace:

Just trying to be helpful, maybe help you see the mkts from a different perspective. I've got nothing to sell, just a lowly trader :)

No reason to get all defensive and on the 'attack'. It will be hard for you to graduate from hobby trader to professional if you don't keep an open mind and a humble ego.

Food for thought. :)
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The whole key to one's strategy is to have some sort of system/style/approach that puts you in highly favorable trades risk reward wise. A good strategy WILL generate signals that are not random, but give you the edge risk/reward. Surf seems to think everyone else out there is just throwing random trades out, and the only person who isn't, is himself. Well.....he flip flops so many times with his trades, one can't think other than that he is just randomly throwing trades out there.

I don't keep stats on him, but someone pointed out that after this trade his journal will be basically flat to down since the start. To me that tells me he really doesn't have any kind of profitable approach and his entries are kind of random.

While I try not to knock anyone's reasoning for getting long/short.....he seems to be riding this bad short on some stat from In Trade about the probability of the debt ceiling not being raised. The Debt ceiling news has been out for a while, and perhaps fundamentally it's bad. But the market has fought off this bad news day after day. What would somebody suspect if they do raise the ceiling. Big rally. Well......it looks like the debt ceiling is gonna go through, and here's the rally.
 
Quote from Gabfly1:

Surf, you noted recently that you would have a book out by 2012. Tell us more.
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It's fall 2012

I can't give much info right now--- however think winner take all combined with James Randi's flim flam. It's gonna blow the lid off lots of stuff.

:D
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

In the midst of another adverse excursion against the position short in ES sept. MS and other positive positive earnings ( although, don't look behind the curtain) are adding fuel to the false bullish sentiment. decided to continue to hold ---


Surf
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By the way, I agree 10000000% with your "look behind the curtain" statement. but unfortunately the market seems to overlook these things....a lot. That's the problem at times with fundamental trading.
 
Quote from EPrado:

By the way, I agree 10000000% with your "look behind the curtain" statement. but unfortunately the market seems to overlook these things....a lot. That's the problem at times with fundamental trading.
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No doubt, getting crushed here. Giving it a bit more time....
 
Quote from Gabfly1:

Well, if you go by Soros's theory of reflexivity, the markets are rarely in a state of equilibrium where true fundamental value is properly represented in price. So if surf has no regard for timing, his own trading results are par for the course.
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The palindrome had influence on niederhoffer who was one of his top traders back in the day....
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

No doubt, getting crushed here. Giving it a bit more time....
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Nice trade. Victor S (traderVic) couldn't have done it better. Victor N. couldn't had done it worse.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

No doubt, getting crushed here. Giving it a bit more time....
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I have been telling friends and family who ask me "what do you think about the stock market", to stay the hell out. There is so much bad news out there that at some point has to be addressed. But...as a trader who follows price action, I won't let my "opinion" get int he way of taking long trades.

Over the years I have gotten clobbered trading off of what "I think" was going to happen based on things other than price action. Took me long enough...but I finally stopped doing it.


The saying "The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent" is 10000% true.
 
Quote from fly down:

Great, great call by EPrado. This is exactly what has happened. The S&P has risen 40 handles.

Wihout EPrado's wisdom, this journal is really all "cheap salesman talk".
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Kudos to Prado but get out of longs now! I think it's finally exhausted and turning back down.

Markets go down faster than they go up.

Surf
 
Quote from EPrado:

Good risk reward trade here Surf. All the bad news is out, coming out and the mkt won't come in. The minute they announce a debt deal your position will be 40 handles against you.
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Great, great call by EPrado. This is exactly what has happened. The S&P has risen 40 handles.

Wihout EPrado's wisdom, this journal is really all "cheap salesman talk".
Quote from marketsurfer:

Please keep the cheap salesman talk off of the surf report.

Surf
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But then there would be no surf report.
 
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