The Surf Report--part 2

Fireplace · Jun 21, 2011

Double up? 92% odds is almost a sure thing.

Quote from marketsurfer:

PS. Holding the ES shorts here.

marketsurfer · Jun 21, 2011

Quote from Fireplace:

Double up? 92% odds is almost a sure thing.

Yes, down by the end of the day. I am not doubling up as ( unfortunately) I am max size right now.

Surf

eudaemon · Jun 21, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

You need to direct your inquiry to Surf Report's dictator. Here is his email
Baron@elitetrader.com. I am certain he will be pleased to hear from aN erudite contributor such as yourself.

Surf

PS. Holding the ES shorts here.

At least you have a sense of humour.

Fireplace · Jun 21, 2011

You ever try scaling in? Seems that, unless you're finding yourself timing the mkt perfectly more often than not, it might help to enter in pieces as opposed to one shot.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yes, down by the end of the day. I am not doubling up as ( unfortunately) I am max size right now.

Surf

marketsurfer · Jun 21, 2011

Quote from Fireplace:

You ever try scaling in? Seems that, unless you're finding yourself timing the mkt perfectly more often than not, it might help to enter in pieces as opposed to one shot.

Yes, I agree. If you follow the surf report part 2, you will see that scaling in is my prefered method. However, at times the odds of a move and other factors make going all in the prefered method--- hindsight is 20/20 regardless. I am early on this entry, although still confident in my analysis.

surf

Lawrence Chan · Jun 21, 2011

Surf,

Stop on this one?

Fireplace · Jun 21, 2011

Ok, I didn't know you also scale. I guess if odds are that great why wait to scale in...you might miss the move that way.

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yes, I agree. If you follow the surf report part 2, you will see that scaling in is my prefered method. However, at times the odds of a move and other factors make going all in the prefered method--- hindsight is 20/20 regardless. I am early on this entry, although still confident in my analysis.

surf

marketsurfer · Jun 21, 2011

Quote from Fireplace:

Ok, I didn't know you also scale. I guess if odds are that great why wait to scale in...you might miss the move that way.

Exactly. However, in retrospect, the system called 92% down by EOD today, therefore scaling in initially made more sense even prior to the entry. My mistake. Still battling that greed thing, even after all these years....

Surf

Gabfly1 · Jun 21, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

Exactly. However, in retrospect, the system called 92% down by EOD today, therefore scaling in initially made more sense even prior to the entry. Still battling that greed thing, even after all these years....

Surf

Just curious. Have you ever added to a winning position?

marketsurfer · Jun 21, 2011

Quote from Gabfly1:

Just curious. Have you ever added to a winning position?

No.

I believe that is a dubious move for the following reason:

If you add to a winner, when it turns it will cut you twice as fast taking your gains, therefore in MOST cases its self destructive.

However, as you know, those who live in the past such as pretty chart painters, would of could of should of folks and others who use pictures of the past to trade can show example after example of the advantages of adding to winners. In the present, things are far different.

surf