The Surf Report--part 2

marketsurfer · May 25, 2011

After a few probes, it appears that we nailed the top in the ES, the 1301 level was tested earlier--- the next test will likely not find support breaking this critical support. stay short surfers.

Gabfly1 · May 25, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yes, I can see your point and confusing. I use dow theory to get a handle on where the market is at any one time, not to make specific trades. TA is good for illustration but not for trading-- I use it when I define concepts but not for making real time trading decisions.

On what basis do you make real time trading decisions? In general terms, of course, since we wouldn't want to rock the trading world with any specifics.

marketsurfer · May 25, 2011

Quote from Gabfly1:

On what basis do you make real time trading decisions? In general terms, of course, since we wouldn't want to rock the trading world with any specifics.

sure, as stated several pages ago:

It is quite complex and takes into account multiple outside the market influencers rather than internal price structure. Basically we weigh and balance almost every possible market influence outside of price action to get a ball park figure of percentage chance of a particular outcome.

Being that price has already happened, and is a function of drivers, rather than what TA believers state, the theory behind the surf system is that the factors driving price are the varibles needed to ascertain future price. We dismiss all past price action as being noise to the real reason what happens after the trade is entered.

Lucrum · May 25, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

After a few probes, it appears that we nailed the top in the ES, the 1301 level was tested earlier--- the next test will likely not find support breaking this critical support.

Sounds just like technical analysis.

In any case if it does work out it could be a record breaking trade for ya smurf. As in you finally got one that actually worked out.

marketsurfer · May 25, 2011

Quote from Lucrum:

Sounds just like technical analysis.

In any case if it does work out it could be a record breaking trade for ya smurf. As in you finally got one that actually worked out.

Yeah, technical analysis is great for illustration and explanation. Just not so smart for real time trading decision making. Nothing beats TA for explaining what has already happened.

surf

Gabfly1 · May 25, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

...We dismiss all past price action as being noise to the real reason what happens after the trade is entered.

If so, then why:

Quote from marketsurfer:

...I use dow theory to get a handle on where the market is at any one time, not to make specific trades. TA is good for illustration but not for trading-- I use it when I define concepts...

If you dismiss price action as being a decision driver of any kind, then why use it at all in any context?

Lornz · May 25, 2011

Quote from marketsurfer:

sure, as stated several pages ago:

It is quite complex and takes into account multiple outside the market influencers rather than internal price structure. Basically we weigh and balance almost every possible market influence outside of price action to get a ball park figure of percentage chance of a particular outcome.

Being that price has already happened, and is a function of drivers, rather than what TA believers state, the theory behind the surf system is that the factors driving price are the varibles needed to ascertain future price. We dismiss all past price action as being noise to the real reason what happens after the trade is entered.

So you do not use any financial time series at all? No looking at market internals, intermarket analysis etc?

Is your trading based on astrology?

Corelio · May 25, 2011

Quote from lornz:

So you do not use any financial time series at all? No looking at market internals, intermarket analysis etc?

Is your trading based on astrology?

Arbitrage, derivative strategies, quant strategies...etc,etc,etc. You don't need a chart, market internals, intermarket analysis or even astrology.

Gabfly1 · May 25, 2011

Quote from Corelio:

Arbitrage, derivative strategies, quant strategies...etc,etc,etc. You don't need a chart, market internals, intermarket analysis or even astrology.

How about price action, both preceding and current, for these quant strategies and so on? Please give me an example of inputs required for these strategies that can bypass price action.

Corelio · May 25, 2011

Quote from Gabfly1:

How about price action, both preceding and current, for these quant strategies and so on? Please give me an example of inputs required for these strategies that can bypass price action.

lol..you're hilarious. First you start with time-series, market internals and intermarket analysis as drivers for analysis which are heavily skewed to technical analysis.

Originally what you had implied is that any market decision is dependent on prior price action accompanied by current market action (intermarket analysis and market internals) as drivers for proper trade placement. Now, you expand your judgment to price itself which is basically an input variable to most strategies.

Fundamental, news based and balance sheet quant strategies do not depend on stock price action.

But let's see what you have next Sherlock Holmes...only on Elitetrader