The Surf Report--part 2

Quote from EPrado:

I will for the 20th year in The Derby bet closers...always do. Uncle Mo will be lucky to start.....the horse has a ton of issues. I hope Pletcher runs him though....will take stupid money as he has no shot at all getting the 1 1/4.
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That's funny closers are all I have ever bet in the derby. Closest I came to a HUGE payday was I had Real Quiet, Victory Gallop and Hallory Hunter in a tri box, and Indian Charlie nosed me out for third. Agh.

I'm not surprised to hear about the meadowlands. I goto Jets games there and the "xanadu" structure has really stamped that whole area as failure. New stadium sucks as well. What were the these people thinking? It's a shame.
 
Quote from fly down:

That's funny closers are all I have ever bet in the derby. Closest I came to a HUGE payday was I had Real Quiet, Victory Gallop and Hallory Hunter in a tri box, and Indian Charlie nosed me out for third. Agh.

I'm not surprised to hear about the meadowlands. I goto Jets games there and the "xanadu" structure has really stamped that whole area as failure. New stadium sucks as well. What were the these people thinking? It's a shame.
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Did they ever finish that Xanadu complex? Last I heard it wasn't even close to fully occupied by stores. What a disaster. Not for anything, but with all the malls and shopping areas in Northern NJ why in hell did they build that thing? The whole Meadowlands is a mess. Byrne Arena is no longer used.....Race track is going south....all they have left is the stadium, and from what my friends who have Jets/Giants tix say....the place is horrible.
 
Told ya....

Quote from Pekelo:

Now it is Tuesday...You know what it means???
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Market is 7.5 pts up for the day. If you don't know what Tuesday means, ask the boys in the ES Journal.

Is there a stop loss on this one? My pattern predicts 1390 in the next 3-4 weeks...
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Told ya....



Market is 7.5 pts up for the day. If you don't know what Tuesday means, ask the boys in the ES Journal.

Is there a stop loss on this one? My pattern predicts 1390 in the next 3-4 weeks...
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Turn around Tuesday? I'm not worried, yet.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Turn around Tuesday? I'm not worried, yet.
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Ask Vic about it :)



I know you are not a fan of TA surf but the IHS on the monthly does not bode well for your short position.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Great to see you here, Lawrence. Yes, on a strictly technical view you are correct.

However, the macro drivers will trump the technical picture in my opinion.

Best

Surf
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At gap fill, there will likely be pullback because it is a test of the year high range. Reaction to first test is normal.

Macro driver on US stock market does not include earning outlook for many years already if you are talking about index components. As long as USD tanks, or stays at the current level, where the US bonds are pinned at abnormal price, US stock market will keep going up, or drift up.

If US Bond collapses, so will the stock market, and the world financial system. That implies you will not be able to collect your windfall profit when you are right with your macro view.

Something to think about.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I'm not worried, yet.
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That's good, although I probably would if my journal after 6 weeks was still in the red.
The thing is that your results look more like random luck or missfortune, there is no consistency whatsoever. I understand you are trying to catch a giant wave, but remember:

5 x 10 = 1 x 50

If the market doesn't give you a 50, take 5 times 10....
 
Quote from Pekelo:

That's good, although I probably would if my journal after 6 weeks was still in the red.
The thing is that your results look more like random luck or missfortune, there is no consistency whatsoever. I understand you are trying to catch a giant wave, but remember:

5 x 10 = 1 x 50

If the market doesn't give you a 50, take 5 times 10....
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Surf is trying to catch a giant wave with the vix at 15.83. Good luck with that. There are times to go for big moves and giant waves (summer/fall of 2008.....the few days during Japan recently)...now is not one of them. Surf isn't adapting to current mkt conditions, something a good trader will always do.

He is fishing for a huge fish in a lake full of minnows.
 
Whoa, I was completely wrong on the direction of the SP move. Closed out shorts , gone flat and going back to sleep. Remaining short gold for now.

Surf :(
 
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