The Surf Report--part 2
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
OK. So you guys critique his trading based on the fact you think he is a dickhead? Is that it?
No. It is based on that he criticizes TA, although as I pointed out, TA could have saved this trade, and he could have reshorted at a higher price. The "breaking out of channel then former resistance becomes support" is one of the oldest things in TA, they teach it in traders' kindergarten....
I don't think he's a dickhead. He may be one, but I don't know. I spoke with him once on the phone many years ago (2003 or 2004). He may be a really nice guy IRL. However, on this board in the last few years he has come across as a pompous, histrionic, know-it-all. And I believe it is those personality traits that could be hindering his trading.
In stark contrast, let us look at someone like lescor. You don't see too many haters on his thread do you?
To be fair, I don't think we should necessarily be telling each other specifically how we ought to trade. There are many different ways to make money. I don't think the specifics are important for the purposes of this discussion. However, there are relatively few ways in which to lose money meaningfully. And, as luck would have it, most people naturally gravitate to those latter approaches. I was merely pointing it out when I saw surf doing it. We don't all have to trade the same way. But we should all probably try to avoid the same general mistakes.
That strategy can blow out an account real fast. I dont think losing 10 handles on 3 minis will blow up his account initially. But...he does the same thing every time. At some point that strategy will empty his account. Big losers on bigger size vs smaller winners on smaller size is a disaster. It's a fact.
This "trade" was never a winner....so yes, he was adding to a losing trade.
The problem Surf has on here is he is critical of a lot of other strategies and tries to act like a know-it-all. Imply he has connections...blah blah blah.
Surf seems like a good guy....but as far as a trader he has a lot of qualities of the worst out there. Probably why he isn't a trader in his real life.
To be fair, tho, we don't know if he nibbled, or if he backed up the truck. Averaging down was just a bad move, tho.
Quote from Pekelo:
Let's make this thread a little educative, shall we? Specially about TA:
So here is Surf going short while the market is stuck in a 6 pts range for 2 days. The obvious expectation is that sooner or later the market will leave the range, and that's what happened in this morning.
Showing it on the cash chart:
The former resistance was just above 25 on the ES (31ish on the chart), and before the open we broke out of the range upward. Then as usual we revisited the former resistance, support now (27.5 then back to 25.75). That was the point to switch to longs, if you were caught short.
The market was kind enough to repeat the action in RTH (30.75 then back to 25.75), so Surf had 2 chances of getting out of the short with little loss. If very bearish, he could have reshorted now a good 5 pts higher....
But that is basic TA for you, and as we know, certain people don't believe in TA.
P.S.: I know Surf will come with the 20/20 hindsight response here, but I am here to make fun not money for him...
What I do not get, is that if the market is in a lateral, would it not make more sense to take the position when the market breaks out. Now there is volume analysis to tell if the lateral is accumulation or distribution, why not just wait for the break and confirmation?
He starts a position based on a tip...from his "sources"...
The market pushes against and he averages down 3X...within small range...
He increases position to "full size" at 6X...in front of friday payrolls...because of another tip...on interest rates...
Market gives him an out on thursday...and instead of tightening ship or exiting a ghastly trade, he gloats.
He can't predict, he can't time, he can't manage, he got what was coming to him.
In addition, only the clueless increases to "maximum size" without the market going his way some.
A simple trade tells a lot about his "strategy". No quarter asked nor given...
Who's the idiot surferboy?.
The market pushes against and he averages down 3X...within small range...
He increases position to "full size" at 6X...in front of friday payrolls...because of another tip...on interest rates...
Market gives him an out on thursday...and instead of tightening ship or exiting a ghastly trade, he gloats.
He can't predict, he can't time, he can't manage, he got what was coming to him.
In addition, only the clueless increases to "maximum size" without the market going his way some.
A simple trade tells a lot about his "strategy". No quarter asked nor given...
Who's the idiot surferboy?.