Still holding short--- underwater. Will be forced to bail at 1333.25. The final surge to suck in cash prior to sell off right now. Hoping to maintain position.
Interest rates going up.....
Interest rates going up.....
The Surf Report--part 2
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
advice: NEVER short the ES!!
Surf, valiancy aside, have you ever considered just going with the flow? I think it's incongruent of you to declare that the market cannot be timed and then stepping in front of a train and remaining rather steadfast. I can't even think of a metaphor for adding to a position as the train is running you down. Wouldn't nimbleness be a virtue in an environment of uncertainty?
Personally, I think that the times you make money in this manner are acting as a setup for your eventual undoing.
In any event, good luck.
Personally, I think that the times you make money in this manner are acting as a setup for your eventual undoing.
In any event, good luck.
Nimbleness, yes for scalpers, others it's just a vig generator generally.
Thanks for the kind words gabfly. Going with the flow is a good idea theoretically in an armchair traders mind. In the actual market, one must anticipate future movement based on analysis of information then consider the inevitable gamesmanship regardless of the face value of the information. Then make a commitment. Otherwise you will just churn-- breaking even if lucky. . In other words, the flow only exists in hindsight making its existence of no value to what happens after the entry is made. I can't time the market exactly, but I often can get close enough to earn $$.
Was I wrong this time? Did I go in too big? Time will tell. My confidence remains high.
I think it's a matter of cost vs. benefit. I'd rather vig out a few times than allow myself to be several full points in the red. I think it comes down to balance, as do most things. You seem to be of the view that it can only be either one extreme or the other.
If the "flow" is going fairly against you in a live trade, and you are underwater for any meaningful length of time in relation to your ~expected holding period, then it is arguably happening in real time. You regularly scoff at buy-and-hold. However, your trading style can arguably be characterized as "buy-and-hold lite."
And you trade outdoors on a field?
Let's make this thread a little educative, shall we? Specially about TA:
So here is Surf going short while the market is stuck in a 6 pts range for 2 days. The obvious expectation is that sooner or later the market will leave the range, and that's what happened in this morning.
Showing it on the cash chart:
The former resistance was just above 25 on the ES (31ish on the chart), and before the open we broke out of the range upward. Then as usual we revisited the former resistance, support now (27.5 then back to 25.75). That was the point to switch to longs, if you were caught short.
The market was kind enough to repeat the action in RTH (30.75 then back to 25.75), so Surf had 2 chances of getting out of the short with little loss. If very bearish, he could have reshorted now a good 5 pts higher....
But that is basic TA for you, and as we know, certain people don't believe in TA.
P.S.: I know Surf will come with the 20/20 hindsight response here, but I am here to make fun not money for him...
So here is Surf going short while the market is stuck in a 6 pts range for 2 days. The obvious expectation is that sooner or later the market will leave the range, and that's what happened in this morning.
Showing it on the cash chart:
The former resistance was just above 25 on the ES (31ish on the chart), and before the open we broke out of the range upward. Then as usual we revisited the former resistance, support now (27.5 then back to 25.75). That was the point to switch to longs, if you were caught short.
The market was kind enough to repeat the action in RTH (30.75 then back to 25.75), so Surf had 2 chances of getting out of the short with little loss. If very bearish, he could have reshorted now a good 5 pts higher....
But that is basic TA for you, and as we know, certain people don't believe in TA.
P.S.: I know Surf will come with the 20/20 hindsight response here, but I am here to make fun not money for him...
Quote from Gabfly1:
And you trade outdoors on a field?
Lol ! i had quite a bit of money on the other side of Surf's so quite satisfied with the outcome so far. Pocketed some gains already but still need a few more points up with SPY and IWM to close the office and go to the park with the kids.
Will still keep several positions over the week end, so gotta cheer against Surf this time, but all the best for your future trades (this one ain't done yet, wonder if i'll manage the park at all today )
Holding tight here. Nervous, yes. However, sticking with analysis for sharp drop prior to 1333.25.
Us dollar falling fast.....
Us dollar falling fast.....