The Surf Report--part 2

Quote from Gabfly1:

Yes, I'm sure that's it.

Groovy. Now explain to me on what logical basis you can legitimately make any price predictions in a market that you equate to a series of coin flips.
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Please observe the series of trades made public from 3.2 at the start of the SURF REPORT--part 2. Perhaps you can reverse engineer the edge. Otherwise, please see the first post on this thread--- obviously, you have not read it, so I will post it again for your edification:

<i>I will not be trading every day, and I will not be revealing my entry criteria--- as you know, I don't put any creedence in technical analysis, charts, gurus, or the reality of trends helping with the here and now of entry. I'll post when/if entry points are discovered and/or entered and exits made. </i>

furthermore, I equate "trends" and chart patterns to being as reliable as coin flips charted----not the market. Please stay on point.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Please observe the series of trades made public from 3.2 at the start of the SURF REPORT--part 2. Perhaps you can reverse engineer the edge. Otherwise, please see the first post on this thread--- obviously, you have not read it, so I will post it again for your edification:

<i>I will not be trading every day, and I will not be revealing my entry criteria--- as you know, I don't put any creedence in technical analysis, charts, gurus, or the reality of trends helping with the here and now of entry. I'll post when/if entry points are discovered and/or entered and exits made. </i>
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I have no interest in what you describe as your edge.

Rather, I only wish for you to explain to me on what logical basis you can legitimately make any price predictions in a market that you equate to a series of coin flips.

What are the chances of my getting a straight answer to a simple and specific quesiton?
 
Quote from Gabfly1:

I have no interest in what you describe as your edge.

Rather, I only wish for you to explain to me on what logical basis you can legitimately make any price predictions in a market that you equate to a series of coin flips.

What are the chances of my getting a straight answer to a simple and specific quesiton?
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Once again, I equate "trends" and TA patterns to being similar to charted coin flip results. I do not equate the market itself to a coin flip. This is a great example of why most lose in the market---you need to break out of this form of thinking.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Once again, I equate "trends"...to being similar to charted coin flip results...
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Then on what logical basis can you legitimately make price predictions? You still haven't quite gotten to answering a very straightforward question repeated over and over again.
 
Quote from Gabfly1:

Then on what logical basis can you legitimately make price predictions? You still haven't quite gotten to answering a very straightforward question repeated over and over again.
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true edge--- fleeting but it exists. you don't see the clear simple answer due to your linear thinking thus not understanding how markets really work. Kindly see examples from 3.2 to present posted in real time on the SURF REPORT--part 2.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

true edge--- fleeting but it exists...
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You have still not provided a logical basis on how your true but fleeting edge can not only trade but actually predict prices in a market that you characterize as both random and very efficient, and one where you regularly compare price trends to the reliability of a series of coin flips. Your words.

I do not care about your edge. I don't want to know it. I merely want to know how your edge can possibly exist in the market environment that you describe.
 
SURF ALERT


Closing ES longs at 1294.25--GOING FLAT< $#Flat


There has been a change in the model, it is no longer clear to 1300--therefore taking profits .

Be back at the next entry.

regards,

Surf
 
I am very concerned here with a continuation taking place in the ES to 1300--- 1293.50 looks like price support but everything remains very unclear--- anything can happen now very very quickly----there is potentially massive unloading that will take place soon, but don't know for 100%--- but if/when it happens you DO NOT WANT TO BE LONG---it will be BRUTAL as the market reclaims its capital-------therefore the smartest course of action is to go flat.

regards,

surf
 
Quote from Gabfly1:

I merely want to know how your edge can possibly exist in the market
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If you'd spent the last week or two listening to him rather than flaming him, you could afford a new card catalog...
 
Surf. Makes sense. I closed out Long ES and Spys after the pop this Am.

Of course this rally reminds me of the gulf war spike. I do not see any reason for this continuation on the upside. I'm not saying we are going to sell off hard.

I do not have a 'blackbox' system like you nor do I trade for a living. I use fun money. So, I do not trade all the time anymore.

However, outside your "model" post some reason's why you think we could sell off, even with the QE3 around the corner and the Printing press pushing this market higher.

Here are a few:

Inflation in Energy
Inflation in AGI- consumers are about to put on the breaks.
Housing is not in a recovery-hence no easy ATM for refi loans to help cushion the inflation blow.
Corporate Earnings -coming up could be a surprise to the downside.
The overall psychology of the "Investor" is starting to turn neg.

It will be interesting to see how your system takes the latter into account.
 
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