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The Surf Report--part 2
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
You keep overlooking the little matter that marketsurfer does not believe in trends. And even if the markets were random and trends existed within them, on what logical basis can you predict future price with any confidence? (Remember the random part?)Quote from veritas007:
Yes, trends can exist in random markets. The market isn't normally distributed. How does the market achieve non-normality? By trending and jumping
If you're going to answer a question, then try to answer one that was asked.
Quote from Gabfly1:
I don't for one moment believe that markets are uniformly random and yet I don't even make the mistake of price prediction. On what logical basis can you make a price prediction in a market you describe as random?
The difference with the random number generator is that it is based off some physical phenomenon (pollen grains suspended in water) which is unrelated to the stock market. Trading charts are based off the interaction of humans. Some of these humans have information about the future value and, in one way, make the stock price distribution different than a normal distribution.
Tell me something I don't know. And please start by actually aswering the questions I asked if you are going to respond to them at all: How can marketsurfer logically make price predictions when he does not believe in trends?Quote from veritas007:
...the stock price distribution different than a normal distribution.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=959938&highlight=trends+exist#post959938Quote from marketsurfer:
yes.
trends only exist in the past.
if you flip a coin 10 times and its comes up heads 10 times are you in a heads trend?
good luck,
surf
Quote from Gabfly1:
You keep overlooking the little matter that marketsurfer does not believe in trends. And even if the markets were random and trends existed within them, on what logical basis can you predict future price with any confidence? (Remember the random part?)
If you're going to answer a question, then try to answer one that was asked.
If you think the market is completely efficient, it doesn't make sense to actively trade to achieve a higher expected return because in an efficient market they will be no "free lunch."
People use different information besides price history to make buy/sell decisions. So what is marketsurfer's stance? Does he believe technical analysis is worthless, but trading on some other kind of information improves expected returns?
I never once suggested the market was anywhere near completely efficient. That was surf. And he's the one who says they're random. And he's the one who compares price trends (in which he does not believe) to coin flips.Quote from veritas007:
If you think the market is completely efficient, it doesn't make sense to actively trade to achieve a higher expected return because in an efficient market they will be no "free lunch."
Forgive me, but do you have a comprehension issue?
Quote from Gabfly1:
I never once suggested the market was anywhere near completely efficient. That was surf. And he's the one who says they're random. And he's the one who compares price trends (in which he does not believe) to coin flips.
Forgive me, but do you have a comprehension issue?
You are extremely simplistic thus lack a basic grasp of edge and markets in general. They are not linear like the dewey decimal system. Clearly, you are out of your league in this discussion.
Edges come and go within the structure of markets, edge rarely lasts long. Understanding this sentence is the first step to break out of your inaccurate paradigm.
surf
Yes, I'm sure that's it.Quote from marketsurfer:
You are extremely simplistic thus lack a basic grasp of edge and markets in general...
Groovy. Now explain to me on what logical basis you can legitimately make any price predictions in a market that you equate to a series of coin flips.Quote from marketsurfer:
...Edges come and go within the structure of markets...
SURF ALERT< SURF ALERT< SURF ALERT
CLOSE oil Long QM @ 103.30 take profits now.
FLAT OIL awaiting next entry.
with this said, maintaining LONGS in SP 500 via ES for now.
regards,
Surf
CLOSE oil Long QM @ 103.30 take profits now.
FLAT OIL awaiting next entry.
with this said, maintaining LONGS in SP 500 via ES for now.
regards,
Surf