1. I would hope so.
2. Thanks.
The Surf Report--part 2
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
1. I would hope so.
2. Thanks.
As much as I don't like to admit, I was wrong about the direction of leaving the channel. Nice holding Surf!
About your sermon. Remember your death channel thingy? One could have played it that way, waiting for confirmation when the price finally left that 5 days established channel and jump on the direction then. The only problem was that once we came back into the channel. Using that entering method one could have avoided entering in the wrong direction...The lower band was around 1325ish ES, so by giving up 5 pts compared to your position, one could have made sure he is betting on the right direction.
So probably waiting for a channel break is more prudent than establishing a position before the direction of the break is clear. But again, nice holding....
About your sermon. Remember your death channel thingy? One could have played it that way, waiting for confirmation when the price finally left that 5 days established channel and jump on the direction then. The only problem was that once we came back into the channel. Using that entering method one could have avoided entering in the wrong direction...The lower band was around 1325ish ES, so by giving up 5 pts compared to your position, one could have made sure he is betting on the right direction.
So probably waiting for a channel break is more prudent than establishing a position before the direction of the break is clear. But again, nice holding....
So you are saying surf is the second coming of Jesus? Interesting view. I don't think Jesus would come back to trade ES futures, but then again, if he did, he probably would short them.
Thanks, Pekelo.
Yes, in hindsight, you are absolutely correct. This is why things like the death channel and other TA tools are so very very very deceptive-- its very difficult to seperate the past from the present, the now from the then, etc when your perspective is the past. It's an easy sell, thats why its pushed and bought-- again and again.
Trading is about anticipation, prediction and money management--not about watching lines and charts form illustrating the past.
Quote from eudaemon:
Nice trade surferboy. Since I was your greatest detractor, I had to say it. Never mind that I also caught the short after the quake that saved your stop...
Remember that we are all trend traders, if we are winning...
thanks, nice trade to you also.
I like the "Predictors"--it's on my desk.
Yes, I totally agree with your last line--
trend only matters AFTER THE ENTRY.
surf
05-07 for today
The problem with that line of thinking is that a break below multi-day lows has been on average a very poor time to initiate a short trade in the SP. In fact tests of multi day lows, or even approaches to multi day lows, has been a good time to open a 1-3 day long swing trade.
Waiting for downside "confirmation" then shorting in the SP has in other words been a great chance to get totally stuffed. That is the trouble with calling a longer term decline though, in general. So often price bounces off multi-day lows that by the time the "real" decline happens you have lost quite a few chips, and seen allot of open profits vanish. it can be easier to play for what usually happens and cover at multi-day lows rather than betting on the exception, which is likely exactly why these bounces have persistence, or in general why there is some short term persistence to patterns.