The Surf Report--part 2

[SrRuthenate]

Quote from SrRuthenate:

Anybody whose calls are "market moving" wouldn't have any problem becoming the richest man in the world in... say... 5 weeks. The fact that he isn't is proof enough of what he hasn't got, and what you don't have either.

It is readily apparent who the delusional "noob" is. How can you make a pitch like that?. It is so exaggerated, that even if the method was profitable, the only one believing your claims is... yourself.

Quote from bwolinsky:

I see another lower high, but don't have a position on. Short is the right move here

"Everything has been said before, but since nobody listens we have to keep going back and beginning all over again." Andre Gide

 

[marketsurfer]

While we have experienced an adverse move from the entry level, back to about 9 points from B/E once again, nothing has changed in the underlying price drivers so far. This is simply volatility that will chop the unlucky price followers and chartists into bits. Holding the course short-- it's just a matter of time, once again.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from bwolinsky:

Well you don't know him, and I don't need to justify it. I can show you all of my Financial Science and it wouldn't prove anything. I've already posted many of the results and there's so many charts with the same theory I'm just sick of trying to debate worthwhileness with people. It's idiotic to refute the amount of hard data he has, and even in my own analysis it is very obvious what the value to me is.

Unfortunately, there is no evidence to these claims. When questioned he threatens with lawsuits, the NYPD and even the FBI. All he needs to do is post a before the fact journal of trade calls, like I have been doing since 2002, but instead insists on sending a "program" and needing to be able to "chart read" the supposed objective system--- (this is per an anonymous email I recd from an apparently disgruntaled client-- I have no first hand knowledge, so take it as you will). Regardless, why not post a series of before the fact calls? All you both have done is post cherry picked winners. I don't get it.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from bwolinsky:

No, I'm not joking. I don't get why noobs ask these questions. I shouldn't have to point to how much research in trading systems I've done or my education when I make a point.

I mean what I said.

I don't dispute your research, but what exactly is your "education"? I don't think you realize the level of folks you are dealing with on the surf report and elite in general.

Before you even ask, I'll be the first to admit that I am the least formally educated of my group with a law degree and BS's in economics and business. I am not a programmer or computer wonk either. However, I have easy access to a handful of finance and statistics PhD's plus numerous "system designers", fund managers and other financial experts. NONE would ever brag about their education-- even the one's from Chicago, MIT and Harvard---

The bravado of you and your leader is really too much.

surf

surf

 

[jsp326]

Quote from bwolinsky:

No, I'm not joking. I don't get why noobs ask these questions. I shouldn't have to point to how much research in trading systems I've done or my education when I make a point.

I mean what I said.

I'm not a "noob."

Typically, noobs belong to some Kool-Aid sipping cult of a guru or esoteric method. They get terribly excited by unverified stories of huge houses, cars, etc. They look at hindsight-based trades on charts and say "Wow, look how accurate this system is!"

When they grow up, they realize that proof is what matters. They want to see account statements or other verifiable evidence of entries/exits. They want to see a statistically-significant number of trades throughout different market phases.

Prof has been at this since at least 2003-2004. If his students were even mildly successful and consistent, they would've made a fortune starting with the smallest of accounts back then (compounding or not). So where are his "turtles"?

 

[jsp326]

Quote from bwolinsky:

It doesn't matter. My school is elite, and if you want to know find my linkedin profile.

I've posted already just to get made fun of, but here it is:

I have a Bachelor of Science from Centre College in Financial Economics and a minor in Mathematics. I was a Brown Colonel Scholar for being a Governor's Scholar in Kentucky during High School 2001. I managed an investment club of family funds from May 2003 to December 2006 and have worked as an RIA Rep since November 2006 and became a CTA October 2010. I passed Level I of the CFA Exam in June 2008, and am planning to take Level II next year.

As far as education, the professional credentials are all that's required to do business, and the degree is only available at a limited number of colleges. I own an RIA firm, a CTA, and a stock exchange.

I challenge anyone to find the curriculum Financial Economics, because it leads into Financial Science. It's not finance, and it's not economics, it's Financial Economics, so anyone who wants can try to find the degree but they probably won't.

All well and good, but people with much higher-level credentials blew up LTCM and all kinds of things in the 2008 meltdown.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from bwolinsky:

NQ covered 2180.5 when I made my call, and the ES covered early that morning at 1183.5.

Quotes have no bearing on the present, and if I was not listening to my systems, I would still be in a short trade like Surf who should have covered the second I posted.

No question, that was a good call for the short term.

However, my time frame is much larger. I am still in the game on this trade.

surf

 

[jsp326]

Quote from bwolinsky:

They are out there. Proof starts from self-actualization which requires effort. And yes, less than 100 posts says otherwise about your experience on the forums.

If you have charts I'm always interested in seeing them.

Self-actualization? I'm not looking for a new age seminar or Trading Psych 101 fluff.

Where are the multi-year reports of trade-by-trade results, monthly returns, max DDs, profit factors, Sharpe/Sortino Ratios, etc.?

I can't believe a CTA would respond like that. It's like a doctor saying "Yes, there is a diagnosis for you, floating on the ether somewhere, but you must get in touch with your inner self first."

 

[jsp326]

Quote from bwolinsky:

They had no backtested algorithms, nor any market timing mechanism and depended solely on fundamentals. The black swan of Russia was unforseen by nearly everyone on the street and unfortunately, by LTCM.

Looking into the story all the public really understands is that they bet money they didn't have and conclude that it was simply a blowup.

It was the first intervention using public money that only acted as a loan immediately reimbursable.

They did not have the technological systems available to people today. Without portfolio optimizations, there was no way they could have known their risks, and without models to govern the timing of their trades we know without risk management it was destined to fail.

LTCM's people had no way of interceding the markets they were in because they were governed passively, and it is only the sheer size of the blowup that brings it attention. There are blowups of greater than 100% regularly, but rarely in size to that.

If LTCM had Price Physics they would not have blown up.

I understand what happened with LTCM. I'm not saying that you're using the same kind of methods. My point is that credentials don't guarantee that someone will use a robust strategy with proper testing, simulation and risk-management controls.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from jsp326:

Self-actualization? I'm not looking for a new age seminar or Trading Psych 101 fluff.

Where are the multi-year reports of trade-by-trade results, monthly returns, max DDs, profit factors, Sharpe/Sortino Ratios, etc.?

I can't believe a CTA would respond like that. It's like a doctor saying "Yes, there is a diagnosis for you, floating on the ether somewhere, but you must get in touch with your inner self first."

The guy won't even post a series of before the fact trades in a journal on this site. Yeah, you'll see the occasional cherry picked winner on a pretty chart but never a series of trades or market calls prior to the fact. Let alone multi year reports or even the most basic DD material.

when questioned, you get threats, invites to magic shows to observe 200 markets being traded at once, and other subterfuge to avoid the simple task of posting calls. If he can just post a series of before the fact accurate calls--i'll be the first to admit there may be some edge to his method. However, it has never happened, nor do I expect it.

surf