The Surf Report--part 2

Quote from Lawrence Chan:

The conclusion, may I say, is incorrect. =)

I think the correct version is,

There is an edge in buying every single stocks that have fallen 5 or more days in a row with equal bet size.

Even failing to buy one single stock from the set, at the exact closing price (which is not quite possible anyway) and also exiting the position at exactly n-day after at another exact closing price (again, a task not quite possible), will not give you the edge you are talking about.

That does not take into account of your dataset having survivor bias issues.

Can't help putting on my statistician hat. :D
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Interesting, lawrence. Are you familiar with the MACHINE platform that has arisen from my old firms research? I'll be happy to set you up on a free trial if you are not already aware.

surf
 
Quote from Fireplace:

"pretend patterns" LOL!!!

You are not correct in your summation, I am just giving you SOMETHING to start from. It would be up to YOU to come up with something objective. Can't spoon feed the masses here :p
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Are you a price physics user?

surf
 
I didn't see a reason to spend too much time reading about trading from 'scholars' or 'experts'. The powers of observation and formulation worked just fine for me. I trust my own eyes and skills over the book writing egg heads that seem to pervade the financial mkts. :)

Quote from marketsurfer:

Hmmmm, ok.

Surf
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Getting back into the saddle, I note that in trade has only a 40% chance of the debt ceiling being raised by 7.31 and just 65%by end of August. Obviously this is a bad sign signaling a us debt default.

I will be looking for the optimal time to get short in a series of 5 entries maximums over the next 5 trading days.

The mother of all lucifuge style death spirals may be just around the corner

Hang onto your hats, cowboys.


Surf.
 
Quote from Gabfly1:

"Feeling." Oh, I just love it when you talk science, being the self-proclaimed man of science that you are. Tell me more.
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You are misunderstanding and in retrospect feeling was a poor choice of words

Feeling as in probing not emotional. Sending out a canary in the coal mine kinda feeling or probing.

A blind man who can't see feeling his way down the street.....all of us are the blind man when it comes to the future--- feeling my way along a timeline that doesn't venexist.except for the past.

Understand?
 
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