The Super Terrific Happy Hour

[Gotcha]

NGL is a perfect example of why i suck balls at swing trading, bought the 12 dollar break then stopped out a week or two later for a loss, only to see it do exactly what i thought it would do. I was up a dollar at one point and ended up taking a loss on it, lol i just cant hold shit and let it go from positive to negative then back to positive, the second swing trades go negative the desire in me is far too strong too just cut the position.

I wonder if you have ever looked at your trades from just a statistical perspective. Something as simple as looking back at the last 20 trades, and seeing if you either took profit at 1 dollar, or cut the loss at 50 cents, would you have been profitable or not? I of course know you're analyzing every twist and turn, which does have value, especially at important levels, but when you're looking to swing trade, I really do think it has less importance.

With you saying that these things usually do end up going the way you thought they would, I wonder if you can put some numbers to that. How much do you have to let it go against you before it turns around, and does in then hit a nice target? I mean 20 cents might be too tight, 1 dollar against you might be too generous, especially if you're only targeting $1-2, but there is probably some number that works better than others. Then if you applied that stop, how often would you be hitting the target? I have actually seen with my own stats that set targets do better. Sure you can often have a winner home run, but this happens on a much smaller win rate where you are often stopped out. I like how with set targets and stops, there are less decisions to be made.

 

[Gotcha]

They arent as focused on scalping they will let swings go from winners to losers, then add to the loser, then keep buying, its just patience, they arent scalping like me where its like built into my DNA that i just hate to watch winners turn into losers, and i want to take profits the second something is onside. I trade around what i find to be pivot points, so it either goes where and when i think its going to go, or i blow it off.

It seems to me that you're a horse, swimming in the river, trying to figure out why fish are faster than you and wanting to race them. You're clearly designed to run on land, and although horses do swim, they never will as well as a fish.

Adding to losers and letting a trade go from winner to loser is something I couldn't do. Its not built into my DNA either. I think what you're trying to do is to do what you do, but apply it to what they do. (hence the horse trying to swim) If you truly want to hold longer, the only thing to really do is to set a stop and target and leave the trade alone.

 

[Max E.]

I wonder if you have every looked at your trades from just a statistical perspective. Something as simple as looking back at the last 20 trades, and seeing if you either took profit at 1 dollar, or cut the loss at 50 cents, would you have been profitable or not? I of course know you're analyzing every twist and turn, which does have value, especially at important levels, but when you're looking to swing trade, I really do think it has less importance.

With you saying that these things usually do end up going the way you thought they would, I wonder if you can put some numbers to that. How much do you have to let it go against you before it turns around, and does in then hit a nice target? I mean 20 cents might be too tight, 1 dollar against you might be too generous, especially if you're only targeting $1-2, but there is probably some number that works better than others. Then if you applied that stop, how often would you be hitting the target? I have actually seen with my own stats that set targets do better. Sure you can often have a winner home run, but this happens on a much smaller win rate where you are often stopped out. I like how with set targets and stops, there are less decisions to be made.

You hit the nail on the head, i need to take numbers to get confidence, so im leaving on just 100 shares on positions now just to use it as a marker, so i can put some numbers together, the biggest thing for me is that all of my confidence comes in reading the tape, and trading news stocks, i lose that skill when i try to hold, because the tape becomes almost meaningless, so i originally thought i could just buy shit and hold it and it would work out........ obviously that failed......... now im trying to put the numbers together on it, so i can get more of a feel for it, because so much of my edge is just based on reading L2, and interpreting whats happening in the next 15-20 minutes, and just never taking losers...... also on0 how people are positioned on a news stock on that specific day, like where are the shorts in trouble where are the longs in trouble........., but that only applies for the 1 day im watching it, after that i dont have a fucking clue how to read it.

 

[Max E.]

It seems to me that you're a horse, swimming in the river, trying to figure out why fish are faster than you and wanting to race them. You're clearly designed to run on land, and although horses do swim, they never will as well as a fish.

Adding to losers and letting a trade go from winner to loser is something I couldn't do. Its not built into my DNA either. I think what you're trying to do is to do what you do, but apply it to what they do. (hence the horse trying to swim) If you truly want to hold longer, the only thing to really do is to set a stop and target and leave the trade alone.

Very well said, perfect summary of the problem im having, lol i love the horse analogy.

 

[Gotcha]

after that i dont have a fucking clue how to read it.

Nor is there any point. I mean look at the chart you posted. Those are daily bars, and in each one of those, there would be major pivots that were being bought and and sold, or defended and rejected, and yet, on this daily chart, none of that matters.

What interesting to me is how the big green bar where you bought, its low, is kind of where the support level was. If these were 1 minute bars and I saw price take off from some level, I would very easily use the low as a level to watch. Then when price comes down here again and double bottoms, it certainly is a nice sign of that level being defended. So for a stop, that is clearly the worst place to stop out. But once again, this is great hindsight bullshit, but my only point with all of this is that I think long term holding has to be analyzed differently than with level 2. All you can really do is say ok, big green bar seems bullish, buy anywhere, stop below the low of big green bar, target is 2 times stop, and see how well this works over a series of trades. At least that's how I think of it.

 

[Max E.]

The thing is that all charts essentially do the same thing, so what im trying to get better at doing on swing trades is let it set the low and have its first push off the low then set a stop below that number which would represent a change in trend, so i bought that chart at 12 originally then it drifted lower every day after and i sold only because i was offside, i wouldnt do that if i was scalping, i would wait for it to set the low, then roll up once then set the stop on the other side of the low, so stop below 11.80 or whereever it was when it bottomed, but the point is to atleast let it bounce once, so you have a bottom to trade off of, and then it either starts hitting higher lows and starts trending up, or you stop out below that number.

Nor is there any point. I mean look at the chart you posted. Those are daily bars, and in each one of those, there would be major pivots that were being bought and and sold, or defended and rejected, and yet, on this daily chart, none of that matters.

What interesting to me is how the big green bar where you bought, its low, is kind of where the support level was. If these were 1 minute bars and I saw price take off from some level, I would very easily use the low as a level to watch. Then when price comes down here again and double bottoms, it certainly is a nice sign of that level being defended. So for a stop, that is clearly the worst place to stop out. But once again, this is great hindsight bullshit, but my only point with all of this is that I think long term holding has to be analyzed differently than with level 2. All you can really do is say ok, big green bar seems bullish, buy anywhere, stop below the low of big green bar, target is 2 times stop, and see how well this works over a series of trades. At least that's how I think of it.

View attachment 180148

 

[Max E.]

What i mean is this, let it bounce it least once after the inevitable pullback then set the stop below the first actual bounce.

 

[Gotcha]

so you have a bottom to trade off of, and then it either starts hitting higher lows and starts trending up, or you stop out below that number

Love it! Its funny how easy trading can really be. Well, not easy, simple is a better word. Its of course difficult to act appropriately all the time, but the system need not be too complex. We are after all trying to predict the future actions of traders, which we can never know, and no amount of complex analysis will tell us what someone will do at a future date and time.

 

[Max E.]

Thx to everyone who posted in this thread, and specifically, TT.texantrader, Gotcha, Vanz, and Beer, Ive really fought with whether or not trading size or catching more of the move was the answer to success, but it appears that catching more of the move definitely wins, i will continue keeping this up to date, but its going to be smaller size now..... im looking for more of the move and less stress, i was putting myself in an early fucking grave due to stress looking for homerun calls on size all the time.........

I re-read this journal a couple times, and there has been some incredible advice here thx guys.

I have struggled with the size vs size of move debate for a while but im starting to see that with my trading the places i always want to take size is when its least advantageous.

So i loved to take size when it was going sideways, thats not necessarily terrible, if you can see the stock setting a base, but that was always what i wanted to build in too, CHOP..... and its pretty much 50/50 there. Anyways starting tomorrow im going to post trades again, what i mean is that i was having a bad habit of building in too stuff before the trend gave me a reason,w i was just adding into every roll up and subtracting on the roll down and scalping for a high stress living.

Anyways, thx guys i intend to update this again now daily.

 

[Max E.]

Thx to Chuck too forgot about him

Im short some XOM here pre market, based on Tillerson being gone.