The Super Terrific Happy Hour

[vanzandt]

Nice work Van, lots of falling knives to be caught today, but when i saw the ES get through 2460, i honestly thought next stop was 2450 so missed the bounce play

Ya know....
These hedge fund managers that work day in and day out to beat the averages (which many never do)... should just park 60% of their money in FB today with an order to buy 40% more on a 15% pullback..... buy a sailboat, and do some 'round the world adventure crap.

Its a no-brainer. I don't care if it gaps down to $145 tomorrow. There is no better stock right now. What we saw today was ADHD short term profit taking. I expect a sell-off tomorrow to shake out the weak hands. Will go ALL IN at $157.

 

[Max E.]

Im just looking back on how to better play this, and this is something thats kind of funny, for some reason i can only Sell puts or buy calls on QQQ, guess the market is telling me something, but when the QQQ's started cracking could have bought 100 143.5 puts on them at 0.09 that would have been a quality trade but

IB only lets me sell puts or buy calls lol, guess they are looking out for me.

 

[Max E.]

WTF is this IB why can i only sell these puts you trying to tell me something? Where is the buy button?

 

[Max E.]

Ya know....
These hedge fund managers that work day in and day out to beat the averages (which many never do)... should just park 60% of their money in FB today with an order to buy 40% more on a 15% pullback..... buy a sailboat, and do some 'round the world adventure crap.

Its a no-brainer. I don't care if it gaps down to $145 tomorrow. There is no better stock right now. What we saw today was ADHD short term profit taking. I expect a sell-off tomorrow to shake out the weak hands. Will go ALL IN at $157.

Too be honest i got no interest in FB one way or the other right now but im looking at the ES and i think 2470 is the pivot point, im going golfing right now, but if i see the ES setting up in the overnight market, im going to be pulling an all nighter again and shorting the ES below 2470 hoping for one more push down we are long overdue for a pullback, though this market never pulls back.

Lots of fat tails in the ES lately after days like this so you have to be careful but this time we are further away from the 50 day so the odds we get a second down day is increased IMO.

 

[beerntrading]

I'd actually do quite well with another down day in the S&P. It should push down the short sides of my diagonals so I can close, then hold the long side for the recovery and short the other side again. Furthermore, I have a VIX call ratio spread (8/16 short 9, long 10)--so I'd love to see 12.50 in that.

My only strictly bullish exposure at the moment is investment positions--and MO makes up about 23% of my overall portfolio (including retirement) PLUS whatever substantial holdings my retirement accounts have. I had totally overlooked this today. In spite of getting the short end of the stick on both SQ and FB today (and quite badly), MO propped up everything and I'm actually UP for the day.

Plus some good news about my other income streams AND I discovered I'm no longer responsible for handling insurance claims at work today.

Today was a good day.

 

[Max E.]

I'd actually do quite well with another down day in the S&P. It should push down the short sides of my diagonals so I can close, then hold the long side for the recovery and short the other side again. Furthermore, I have a VIX call ratio spread (8/16 short 9, long 10)--so I'd love to see 12.50 in that.

My only strictly bullish exposure at the moment is investment positions--and MO makes up about 23% of my overall portfolio (including retirement) PLUS whatever substantial holdings my retirement accounts have. I had totally overlooked this today. In spite of getting the short end of the stick on both SQ and FB today (and quite badly), MO propped up everything and I'm actually UP for the day.

Plus some good news about my other income streams AND I discovered I'm no longer responsible for handling insurance claims at work today.

Today was a good day.

Id really like to see one more push down for UVXY, i missed the short on that thing today, blew it there too, but one more down day and it should get back above the highs, but shorting UVXY is basically free money, the closest thing to it you will ever get.

It was a decent day for me too, up a thousand bucks, hard to complain about that but i feel like i left so much on the table not nailing this ES/QQQ trade and missing the UVXY short.

 

[beerntrading]

Id really like to see one more push down for UVXY, i missed the short on that thing today, blew it there too, but one more down day and it should get back above the highs, but shorting UVXY is basically free money, the closest thing to it you will ever get.

It was a decent day for me too, up a thousand bucks, hard to complain about that but i feel like i left so much on the table not nailing this ES/QQQ trade and missing the UVXY short.

I checked my VIX options right at the peak today and almost closed (would have been 180% if I'd gotten a fill). I'm just testing the waters with that method though as a potential hedge, and I thought I would gain more knowledge than dollars by letting it ride.

 

[Max E.]

I checked my VIX options right at the peak today and almost closed (would have been 180% if I'd gotten a fill). I'm just testing the waters with that method though as a potential hedge, and I thought I would gain more knowledge than dollars by letting it ride.

I would never go long UVXY/TVIX as a hedge, the way you should be playing it, and the way you make up the ground you lose in a market sell off is by shorting UVXY and TVIX, its literally free money, those things decay faster than most options do, its funny cause it seems like these days TVIX and UVXY wont even put in a multi day up move its just 1 and done for those pieces of garbage, but if your holding a long term portfolio thats a real good way to just "Buy the dips" instead of just adding more long exposure in what you already have. I honmestly think your better off just shorting the ES or NQ if you want a hedge, buying calls on the VXX or any of these leveraged volatility indexes is a suckers bet imo.

I realise its just adding more risk to the same side, but UVXY and TVIX are such consistent faders its literally free money.

Here is a 2 year chart to give you an idea what im talking about with UVXY, supposedly it was trading at 9000 bucks a share on a split adjusted basis, this thing just reverse splits time after time after time, shorting UVXY or TVIX is the best way to buy dips in the market IMO, the chart is literally so broken you cant even put it into a scale that6 makes sense on a 2 year basis. but i missed it today.

 

[Max E.]

UVXY i was hoping for ES to get to 2450 today, i had my sites on UVXY at 35 if it got there, and i was ready to go hard in it i just didnt ant to start to early.

 

[beerntrading]

I would never go long UVXY/TVIX as a hedge, the way you should be playing it, and the way you make up the ground you lose in a market sell off is by shorting UVXY and TVIX, its literally free money, those things decay faster than most options do, its funny cause it seems like these days TVIX and UVXY wont even put in a multi day up move its just 1 and done for those pieces of garbage, but if your holding a long term portfolio thats a real good way to just "Buy the dips" instead of just adding more long exposure in what you already have.

I realise its just adding more risk to the same side, but UVXY and TVIX are such consistent faders its literally free money.

Here is a 2 year chart to give you an idea what im talking about with UVXY, supposedly it was trading at 9000 bucks a share on a split adjusted basis, this thing just reverse splits time after time after time, shorting UVXY or TVIX is the best way to buy dips in the market IMO, the chart is literally so broken you cant even put it into a scale that6 makes sense on a 2 year basis. but i missed it today.

I understand that--it's actually that interplay that got me looking at it as a long for hedges. The call ratio spread offsets the worst of the VIX future's natural decline, while giving me ok enough exposure.

I've also got a buddy who plays the VIX exclusively with long calls. Just buys the dips and waits. It actually seems like a pretty good strategy, if tying up money that could be better spent elsewhere. It's the old, if you wait long enough in a train station, a train will come past...

I don't have a clear way to hedge diagonal spreads, and the VIX seems to be the ticket. Bullish jumps (in stocks I have diagonals on) are reasonably hedged within the position itself and I just close the whole thing early for a loss. The bearish drops like today can hit the long side unnecessarily hard though...small moves in either direction are ideal for the diagonal. So, I'm ONLY concerned about large downside moves.