Thats all the games about man nice work, keep losers small you will be in business forever.
The Super Terrific Happy Hour
- Thread starter Max E.
- Start date
Thats all the games about man nice work, keep losers small you will be in business forever.
I'd give ya two likes on that one if I could.
PS.... I told you guys.... SSS's at CMG would be down.
Thats all I knew lol.
If the bitch were at $400 it would be tanking.
... And we'll make a (small) fortune shorting it when the time is right.
This call warrants some follow-up from me. That one would be a loser, clearly. It's based on it's first touch of $160, and what I'd view as S/R. But I don't think we're out of the woods yet.
I do still consider us at resistance--if you look back to the 4/28 pattern that established resistance at $150, the stock osculated between about 144.72 and 155 (only looking at closes). It only gave a clear break on 7/11 and confirmed the following day.
Currently, we have a fairly similar lead-in and activity, until yesterday when we closed at $166. Today, we pulled back into the s/r range. I'd discount some of this upwards pressure as earnings anticipation. The pattern today didn't give a confirmation, and was likely dragged on by GOOG earnings release. Overall, I view this as high expectations for tomorrow's earnings, and I'm not ready to concede we're past resistance...that said, we'll never see enough activity before the news event to get a real confirmation one way or the other.
I do view this quick break from S/R as optimistic, so I doubt anything short of a massive earnings beat will push this up. To the contrary, I expect this to go down for anything less than about 1.23 - 1.25 EPS (which would be just outside the high analyst estimate). That's in line with Google's beat and move down today. A miss and this thing will get crushed.
It's definitely not as strong as $150 was, that's for sure.
I do have an investment position on this long $150 puts, long the shares, and short $160 calls. So I'm quite happy if this one settles back in to $160ish. The reasoning behind that position was to get some downside protection during the May tech correction that seems like so distant bearishness at this point. I see absolutely no reason this one would get substantially under $160, except perhaps in after hours before the dead-cat bounce.
I dont think i can think of a scenario i would want to short AMD tomorrow, maybe parabolic through 20, but this is a buy hands down, saw it was 14.85 didnt react with massive size, thats a big time fuck up on my part, this one was a lay down long, bet it hits 17 tomorrow.
I am not sure about shorting AMD but I do not think share price will rise. For some reason there are stocks that are psychologically out of favor no matter what the results. AMD is one. GS is certain to put out a negative report. People are saying that AMD is not entering the self driving car market etc. Buying after GS downgrades has been a profitable approach.
Someone on SA, AMD earnings transcript call made this comment:
"After more than a year they have no other "semi custom" win beside the console deals. And they got these because of razer thin margins. Their CPU business is dead. They are still losing money. They invest less money in RnD than nVidia. They have no mobile SoC for tablets, phones and other low power markets - they either get beaten on the CPU side by Qualcomm, ARM and Apple or on the GPU side by nVidia.These articles have been ignoring the reality and obvious Facts. But i guess if you invest in a dying Company you need to ignore all the negative points...".
OMER is another example that recently got an injunction against "Bob Doyle"
for an untrue "hit piece".
...and into CMG. This time with a $330 call for $16.80
I got called into someone's office. FML!
