The Super Terrific Happy Hour

[Max E.]

Looks like you were right!

LOL, didnt make a dime on it though, tough market, cause i dont really want to be long right now, but unless you catch the shorts close to the high there is just no more opportunity, cause there is no follow through on the downside.

 

[Max E.]

Only other trade for me was TAP made 200 bucks finished the day up about 150, on TAP was trying to catch a falling knife went long when it first hit 92, @92.09, thinking it was pretty overextended into that number, and it would have stopped out all of the longs once it got through 92.50. Bailed on it for about a 40 tick winner when it wouldnt bounce, happy i played it like a chicken shit, but thats what i like to do when catching a falling knife, either you have a bottom and there is strength there or get out, its just a quick reactionary trade.

Pretty lucky to have made money on it when It went 4 more dollars lol.

 

[Max E.]

Wanted to post a chart that was chopped up to represent what im thinking and why i thought that was a bottom on the ES today, cause i think its valuable to look at charts at the end of the day and look at what you are thinking.

This comes back to why it is very hard to trade a choppy market.

Generally when i take a trade im looking to take it and just ride the rolls on it and keep adding to it on each successive roll over as it goes, then eventually take myself out at a certain point on the chart, usually after i get three rolls. Stocks generally tend to put in 3 rolls then reverse put in a couple then put in three more rolls, but in a trending market it it can go for 5-6-7 rolls pretty easy before it reverses the cycle and starts making those roll overs the other way.

The reason why its so tough when you short those bottoms is because in a choppy market you only notice it on Roll "2" which i have labelled below on the ES chart, if you start short roll 2 and add on roll 3 then chase the bottom all of a sudden your heavily offside on a chart where you were once up a ton of money so it becomes tough to let go of the position.

I only like taking roll 2, or roll 3 with nothing size, my best trades are big on roll 2 big on roll 3 then it just keeps going. When it hits that higher low in this kind of market instead of rolling back over, it sticks you and just grinds higher and sticks it to all of the shorts.

Thats how you get fucked shorting bottoms in a choppy market cause it only gives you three rolls before it reverses as opposed to five six seven, etc....... and it just cuts you to pieces like that.

Anyways hope that makes sense i have attached a chart below to try to better illustrate what i mean by that.

 

[Max E.]

Feel free to post you guys charts in here too with analysis, or critique mine, it helps us all the more minds we can get behind this, doesnt matter if the trade is good or bad, im posting everything, it helps alot to be able to look back and confirm your beliefs, especially after a trying week couple weeks like the last 2. There is nothing you can do or say or post in here that is too dumb, im pretty sure ill top it at some point. The more charts and analysis we get going the better.

At some point id like to actually get a recording of a L2 and a chart in real time, to talk about tape reading, but those programs that record a screen are a frigging hog on resources while the market is open when it is moving, but i think that would be really valuable to be able to look back and say exactly what your seeing on L2 and Time and Sales in real time while a chart is moving cause it would just put all the pieces of this back together.

 

[Max E.]

I was in a hurry so didnt get a chance to emphasize my point but look what the ES does going the other way, on the long side once it puts in a capitulation bar on the downside.

3 rolls up to the top then flat line. I dont know why the market moves in these 3 roll increments but i think its human nature, (take a position, add once, then you want to start bailing,) and if there isnt enough pressure to sustain the move the inverse 3 roll process starts.

So lets say if your late to the party and you hit it with a buy at the bottom of roll 3 on the long side at 2430, you only get like 2-3 ES points and it tops out THATS IT, and you have to risk 3 points for it to go all the way back through roll 2, on the long side in order to confirm the trend has changed and you are wrong, so you get 3 points chasing roll 3 if your right and lose 3 or more if your wrong.

I.E. you go long at the bottom on roll 3 at like 2430, your risk has to be something below 2427(roll 2), and its going to snap if it goes there so you probably get 2426, and at best you sell 2433, so you get 3 points for risking 3, the R:R just doesnt make sense.

And if you look at it the other way, what starts out looking like "Roll 4" on the down side (Ive labelled it as roll 1 on the upside), instead turns into a brand new cycle of 3 rolls going the other way.

Anyway you look at it, by the time it hits roll 3 and it seems blatantly obvious which way its going, it then turns into a trap, (in a choppy market) and the risk reward is inverted if you chase roll 3.

In a trending market you often get roll 4 roll 5 or an all day trender, so it bails you out of those chases and you can build into a chase if you start out small.

So in a choppy market, if your entries arent perfect you get screwed chasing this shit around all day if you fight a choppy low volatility market mid day. Thats why you just got to remind yourself it only takes 1 good trade, dont fight anything too hard in this garbage.

I dont post anything on OTC stocks in here cause Baron doesnt want us posting shit about penny stocks, but OTC and pink sheets follow this 3 roll principle to the tee.

NYSE used to follow it back in the day too when it was slow as hell and the specialist dictated the action, but now that its electronic it doesnt follow this line of thinking 100% anymore, but im still always cognizant of which roll im on in terms of the move, always avoid going heavy in roll three and chasing roll 4 in a choppy market, it only leads to trouble.

Thats the reason i told people to be careful not that i thought it was necesarily going up and it was a bottom today, just that i understand how chop works, and how you can get buried up to your eyeballs during chop if you get overly aggressive.

 

[Max E.]

Also i had to say something else real quick, alot of people are dead set on picking the dead tops and bottoms, i only play that game early in the day, otherwise im looking at roll 2, roll 2 is always the sweet spot for me with a stop over the days highs, you start there and try to build into it.

O

Once you get good you can feel out where the turning point is going to be, then add on roll 2 if your right, but most people should be looking for roll 2 if your new. Let the stock set 1 higher high, or 1 higher low, then nail the next pullback with a stop below the first roll, that way you dont end up in an add add add scenario where you have no clue where the bottom/top is.

 

[Max E.]

Guys please tell me if you want me to shut up with the play by play on the charts at the end of the day, im just trying to say what im thinking, and provide my reasoning for it, and provide some kind of knowledge for the decision.

But if you dont want me to post hind site thought process with analysis let me know, but i feel like that kind of analysis is how you learn HOW to think as opposed to just learning entries.

Im trying to post what im thinking in real time, with my entries, and exits, but some days it just isnt possible to post everything in real time, so i just show all my entries on the chart. I might sound douchey when i chop up a chart and say "Here is my thoughts, here is where i went wrong" in hind site, but in my opinon that is how you grow.

I realise everything looks easy in hindsight but thats never what im getting at with charts, im trying to cut them apart because its a learning tool, everything i post ive made that mistake, ive been burned by that move at some point.

Anyways let me know what you guys wanna see or else if you wanna see more charts and more analysis, please keep posting, the more stuff you guys contribute with charts, the more i can learn from YOU.

I Liked Chucks analysis of the NQ today, it was spot on, i was looking at the exact same channel, looking at the breakdown, thinking it absolutely had to break there...... only reason i didnt take it was cause of the 3 roll rule ive got in my head, and the fact that ive dumped tens of thousands of dollars trying to force a move during chop.

I wasnt smarter than him, i wasnt a mind reader, i didnt pick the bottom, i just knew that low volatility, low volume leads to chop. I had no idea if that bottom at 2424 was going to hold, i just knew it wasnt going to be easy either way, so i avoided it.

With that said, we need more Chuck bell!!!

And Vanzandts call on PBYI might be one of the best calls on ET of all time, that was the closest to free money the market ever provides. (Of course he had to do it to me on like page 4 of my freshly minted journal) Thankfully i was able to succesfully photo shop vanzandts call out of here and put myself into that one.

Anyways this isnt a journal where people got to keep quiet and listen to ME, if the way im cutting these charts apart in hindsite and offering my thoughts is useless, ill shut up and quit posting them, but if you guys like them keep posting your own ideas, i want this to be a place where we bounce ideas off each other as much as anything. any stock traders, or wannabe stock traders post your trades, post some charts and lets look at them together. We all stand to learn something the more people contribute.

I dont want this to just be the cowbell show.

 

[tt.texantrader]

Guys please tell me if you want me to shut up with the play by play on the charts at the end of the day

I think your charts and posts are most excellent. The fact that you also post entries and exits brings it to the next level. Its easy to analyze what is happening, but once you have money on the line, its obvious how this changes things. All the ET experts are the best traders, supposedly, but most can't show how they put their theory into practice.

My vote is for you to continue as you are doing, and if you want to actually invite others to post, I suggest that they follow your lead and also post their trades.

This leads me to my next point.

happy i played it like a chicken shit

This is precisely why I think it is too difficult for you, or anyone for that matter, to all of a sudden change your style for holding period. Its in your blood to get in and out. Now granted, you might have mentioned this line simply in relation to this particular trade since you knew you were catching a falling knife, and a different type of setup might be more conducive to holding longer. But I do still feel that holding longer isn't just some simply thing you turn on in your brain.

Holding longer will affect the win rate, it will affect your stop size, it will affect your target. Obviously you want it to affect your target, since you want a much bigger target. If you don't adjust your stop size, then you will have to be content with a lower win rate. But doing this will have a huge impact to the psychology since you are winning less often.

Of course if you nail perfect entries, and hence don't need to adjust your stop size, and if it doesn't affect your win rate, then all you need to do is look up your last 10 or 20 trades to see how many of them went twice as far. I bet that only 75% or less went to a much bigger profit. This would mean that your win rate would be lower. Of course, overall profits might be higher if your target is now twice as much and your win rate only drops by 25%, but I don't think you will be able to put your trades on exactly the same way.

Have you seen the intimate details of what these guys do that you talk about that are killing it and who are holding for longer? What are their stats in terms of trades per day, win rate, stop size in relation to profit target? I ask all this because when you say that this is what you'd like to do, its as if you know that this is how people do it who are really killing it, but without any evidence to back this up, the truth could be much different than you realize.

Most stats that I've seen of successful traders are playing for ticks. (ie. 4-12 ES ticks) Beyond that, I haven't seen any good stats. It doesn't mean they don't exist, but I'm not sure how these numbers work. It of course sounds easy to think you can just buy the NQ and hold for a hundred point winner that will hit in just a couple of days, but to do this type of trading requires I think extreme patience for price to approach very key levels, which might only happen a few times a week, and also either wider stops, or more entries that keep getting stopped out. These guys must have many days of no profits or small losses, and wait for the one big payday where a huge swing trade pans out big.

Reading your thought process, too much would have to change for you to move into this style, in my humble opinion of course. To increase profits, its simply a case of either bigger targets, or more size. Since the bigger targets has its own issues, as I've just outlined, the bigger size is I think the more doable variable. It has its own psychological challenges of course, but they are all psychological, not technique dependent, which is what moving stops and targets would entail. You would then be battling both a new framework for your trading, but also the psychological element of holding longer, and not getting shaken out by every micro turn.

 

[Max E.]

Wow TT, this is such an EPIC post i want too respond to it point by point, clearly you understand exactly what is going on with a trader, give me a few minutes though cause you took a long time to respond to me so i will try to grant you the same courtesy. Thank you again, i read this and it makes alot of sense.

(This is what i mean about learning from each other)

I think your charts and posts are most excellent. The fact that you also post entries and exits brings it to the next level. Its easy to analyze what is happening, but once you have money on the line, its obvious how this changes things. All the ET experts are the best traders, supposedly, but most can't show how they put their theory into practice.

My vote is for you to continue as you are doing, and if you want to actually invite others to post, I suggest that they follow your lead and also post their trades.

This leads me to my next point.


This is precisely why I think it is too difficult for you, or anyone for that matter, to all of a sudden change your style for holding period. Its in your blood to get in and out. Now granted, you might have mentioned this line simply in relation to this particular trade since you knew you were catching a falling knife, and a different type of setup might be more conducive to holding longer. But I do still feel that holding longer isn't just some simply thing you turn on in your brain.

Holding longer will affect the win rate, it will affect your stop size, it will affect your target. Obviously you want it to affect your target, since you want a much bigger target. If you don't adjust your stop size, then you will have to be content with a lower win rate. But doing this will have a huge impact to the psychology since you are winning less often.

Of course if you nail perfect entries, and hence don't need to adjust your stop size, and if it doesn't affect your win rate, then all you need to do is look up your last 10 or 20 trades to see how many of them went twice as far. I bet that only 75% or less went to a much bigger profit. This would mean that your win rate would be lower. Of course, overall profits might be higher if your target is now twice as much and your win rate only drops by 25%, but I don't think you will be able to put your trades on exactly the same way.

Have you seen the intimate details of what these guys do that you talk about that are killing it and who are holding for longer? What are their stats in terms of trades per day, win rate, stop size in relation to profit target? I ask all this because when you say that this is what you'd like to do, its as if you know that this is how people do it who are really killing it, but without any evidence to back this up, the truth could be much different than you realize.

Most stats that I've seen of successful traders are playing for ticks. (ie. 4-12 ES ticks) Beyond that, I haven't seen any good stats. It doesn't mean they don't exist, but I'm not sure how these numbers work. It of course sounds easy to think you can just buy the NQ and hold for a hundred point winner that will hit in just a couple of days, but to do this type of trading requires I think extreme patience for price to approach very key levels, which might only happen a few times a week, and also either wider stops, or more entries that keep getting stopped out. These guys must have many days of no profits or small losses, and wait for the one big payday where a huge swing trade pans out big.

Reading your thought process, too much would have to change for you to move into this style, in my humble opinion of course. To increase profits, its simply a case of either bigger targets, or more size. Since the bigger targets has its own issues, as I've just outlined, the bigger size is I think the more doable variable. It has its own psychological challenges of course, but they are all psychological, not technique dependent, which is what moving stops and targets would entail. You would then be battling both a new framework for your trading, but also the psychological element of holding longer, and not getting shaken out by every micro turn.

 

[Max E.]

I think you have hit the nail on the head TT, i dont feel good if i win, i dont feel good if i lose, it seems like the only time i win where i add add add and then sell the high is right off the open.

So bottom line i think im just good at trading volatility, good at being in and out of stocks, good at reading the tape. But i see these guys making multiples of what i am and i keep coming back to the fact that they will sit there build a position all day, add on the bounce, keep adding the whole way up, and then sack it if they get screwed in the end. No harm no foul if they make zero on the trade.

The money is simply irrelevant to them. It is really hard to get to that point, i was there a couple times in my career, where money didnt matter, but i got torched, got fucked, had systems blow up, lost everything to a crooked broker, etc, etc.....

So you go from being able to look at the market where "it means nothing," too having to grind and not let anything go against you then it breaks you, so the mindset just totally changes.

You go from, meh, maybe ill hold this breakout for a couple days, too, how can i size into this breakout as aggresively as possible knowing its going to tap the highs at some point.

I know ive learned to read the tape learned to read the next move, but in order to get to the next level i obviously need to learn to hold, which is something im struggling with.

I think what you are saying makes sense, maybe i should just accept im a good scalper and size in more aggresively.

But even on something like TAP today i nailed the bottom 92.09 took my bounce for 50 ticks just a scalp but i only took 500 shares, but that kind of position if i was to try to multiply it and say im going to take 2k shares, or 20k shares would end up drastically diffeently. I only take the number of shares i think i can easily get out of, like within 1 print. Thats why AMD positions get so large, i know 1 print im out, but on something like TAP where i catch a falling knife, if i sit there and absord 2k shares and it pukes through me im looking at hammering it out into the bottom piece by piece, cause there was 20 cent spreads with a hundred shares on the bid/offer.

I really appreciate the response dude, it gave me lots to think about and i will most likely read it a few more times before i wake up in 4 hours, lol, but it was an absolutely amazing response, and gave me tons to think about.

Maybe i just need to accept myself as a scalper with size, but you cant put size through on most moves, cause you cant read it down to a couple ticks where its easy to get out if your wrong.

The big thing though, MY SALVATION, give me another couple months, i guarantee i will hit a 5-6 figure trade, it just takes time, i chop most of the trades i take cause im a chicken shit, and i hate losing money, and i can read the tape, but when i get i good idea, i promise ill be all in on it, i feel like thats just the market we are in, obviously im worse than most, but i promise you i will show you a massive winner when i think i got it right.

I think your charts and posts are most excellent. The fact that you also post entries and exits brings it to the next level. Its easy to analyze what is happening, but once you have money on the line, its obvious how this changes things. All the ET experts are the best traders, supposedly, but most can't show how they put their theory into practice.

My vote is for you to continue as you are doing, and if you want to actually invite others to post, I suggest that they follow your lead and also post their trades.

This leads me to my next point.


This is precisely why I think it is too difficult for you, or anyone for that matter, to all of a sudden change your style for holding period. Its in your blood to get in and out. Now granted, you might have mentioned this line simply in relation to this particular trade since you knew you were catching a falling knife, and a different type of setup might be more conducive to holding longer. But I do still feel that holding longer isn't just some simply thing you turn on in your brain.

Holding longer will affect the win rate, it will affect your stop size, it will affect your target. Obviously you want it to affect your target, since you want a much bigger target. If you don't adjust your stop size, then you will have to be content with a lower win rate. But doing this will have a huge impact to the psychology since you are winning less often.

Of course if you nail perfect entries, and hence don't need to adjust your stop size, and if it doesn't affect your win rate, then all you need to do is look up your last 10 or 20 trades to see how many of them went twice as far. I bet that only 75% or less went to a much bigger profit. This would mean that your win rate would be lower. Of course, overall profits might be higher if your target is now twice as much and your win rate only drops by 25%, but I don't think you will be able to put your trades on exactly the same way.

Have you seen the intimate details of what these guys do that you talk about that are killing it and who are holding for longer? What are their stats in terms of trades per day, win rate, stop size in relation to profit target? I ask all this because when you say that this is what you'd like to do, its as if you know that this is how people do it who are really killing it, but without any evidence to back this up, the truth could be much different than you realize.

Most stats that I've seen of successful traders are playing for ticks. (ie. 4-12 ES ticks) Beyond that, I haven't seen any good stats. It doesn't mean they don't exist, but I'm not sure how these numbers work. It of course sounds easy to think you can just buy the NQ and hold for a hundred point winner that will hit in just a couple of days, but to do this type of trading requires I think extreme patience for price to approach very key levels, which might only happen a few times a week, and also either wider stops, or more entries that keep getting stopped out. These guys must have many days of no profits or small losses, and wait for the one big payday where a huge swing trade pans out big.

Reading your thought process, too much would have to change for you to move into this style, in my humble opinion of course. To increase profits, its simply a case of either bigger targets, or more size. Since the bigger targets has its own issues, as I've just outlined, the bigger size is I think the more doable variable. It has its own psychological challenges of course, but they are all psychological, not technique dependent, which is what moving stops and targets would entail. You would then be battling both a new framework for your trading, but also the psychological element of holding longer, and not getting shaken out by every micro turn.