Other than that only other trade was BBY bought 59.44 or something sold for a 20 tick loss at the dead lows, thought based on the 5 day 5 minute chart there would be action over 59.50, eventually i was proven right but it just wasnt something i was 100% confident in so i didnt add and just ate a 40 buck loss on it, pretty much bottom ticked the stopout, lol.
The Super Terrific Happy Hour
- Thread starter Max E.
- Start date
You can see how last couple days it peaked in the 59.50-59.80 area, but at the same time, the lows kept holding fom previous days on it leading me to believe that was the bottom at 58.60. So i thought a big push through that and it could easily go vertical again, just cause of how much volume there was on it a couple days ago.
For buying you want to be in early imo, buying usually happens in the morning, selling in the afternoon, you will notice im getting long stuff, if not in the premarket, like 5 minutes into the open.
What im looking for on buys, Is something that is gapping up just short of a daily high on some kind of a catalyst, preferably on earnings, upgrades dont tend to have alot of follow through so basically ill just list what im looking for 1 by 1, then im looking for whichever stock meets the most of these criteria iun the morning, then that is the one im focusing on.
1.) Earnings or a catalyst
2.) trading just below a Daily breakout pre market
3.) stock is either trending up or has created a base premarket like CIEN at 25.50
4.) trading over the 50 day and th 200 day
5.) stock is being talked about on twitter and CNBC
6.) Stock is trending up on a daily, but has pulled back a bit from the highs.
7.) Sector has been hot, i.e. when all the marijuana stock weere popping you could buy and of them if they looked like it was breaking out, same goes when they were ll falling apart.
8.) Has the stock put in a big run in the past.
If you look at CIEN it had almost all this thats why there was a 10% pop right out of the gates, so many reasons for newbies to chase it.
The more of these things you can connect the dots on the better the potential is for it to make a masive move, but then once the stock opens its alll just about feel, and in the first 10 minutes to half hour of the day im generally pretty quick to take profit if i get any kind of a parabolic move, cause the stock can still go either way at that point
Also you have to anticipate breakouts, if you are buying right at the breakout point you are already too late, cause by the time it hits that point, its 50/50 whether its going to bounce there or breakout, so thats why i was buying CIEN at 26, anticipating a move towards 27 for the breakout and hopefully a push through it, got the push through, but unfortunately sold too early this morning you win some you lose some. But if you are buying 27 hoping for a breakout the algos will shake you out atleast half the time, its not profitable buying it at the breakout point, sometimes i will do it but just on garbage size if i do.
Dont chase on the buy side unless its like 1 minute after the open and you already have padding on your initial entry, let the stock come to you. On the open on CIEN, i had 26.01 my initial entry, then i added right when it opened at like 26.39, cause i could just see it printing tons of green and even if i blew it i had a bit of padding on my entry cause my average was only like 26.20 at that point.
Anyways thats about all i can think of.
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Oh yeah two other things i forgot about that are key to buying
1.)Short % if you see a stock gapping up on earnings getting ready to breakout and 20-30-40%+ of the float is short you know shorts are going to panick when it breaks out
2.)Volume as opposed to the size of the float, if its a low floater gapping up, and its trending up premarket, and its already rolled the float a couple of times you know that stock can put in a huge move, most of the time when you see the stocks that make 100%+ moves in a single day they roll the float several times over, so you know if a stock has already rolled the float pre market its going to be in for a big move. But that applies more to longs on low floaters, something like CIEN its pretty unlikely it will ever roll the float in a single day.
3.) And also volume as opposed to average daily volume, on something thicker like CIEN if its already done its average daily volume in the premarket, you know its got the volume and interest in it in order to keep it going, if its barely done any volume in the premarket, i tend to avoid it.
1.)Short % if you see a stock gapping up on earnings getting ready to breakout and 20-30-40%+ of the float is short you know shorts are going to panick when it breaks out
2.)Volume as opposed to the size of the float, if its a low floater gapping up, and its trending up premarket, and its already rolled the float a couple of times you know that stock can put in a huge move, most of the time when you see the stocks that make 100%+ moves in a single day they roll the float several times over, so you know if a stock has already rolled the float pre market its going to be in for a big move. But that applies more to longs on low floaters, something like CIEN its pretty unlikely it will ever roll the float in a single day.
3.) And also volume as opposed to average daily volume, on something thicker like CIEN if its already done its average daily volume in the premarket, you know its got the volume and interest in it in order to keep it going, if its barely done any volume in the premarket, i tend to avoid it.
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I probably oversimplified what i said before, but basically im trying to anticipate that first red day, im not looking to short anything thats green and trending past like 12:00, but i used to make the mistake of shorting these parabolic moves as soon as it put in a big green day on volume, and id get burned alot like that, you need to see topping action on the 2 minute chart that matches topping action on the daily, then you take your shot once it gives you a set level to risk off of, you dont just start shorting in too green strength, thinking it has to come down, so your looking for the stock to be making lower highs on the 2 minute, where it makes sense for it to be a top on the daily instead of just shorting into a strong uptrend thinking it HAS to turn cause its just ridiculous.
If i remember that day properly on AMMJ and OWCP both of them put in a big parabolic move early in the day then just kept getting stufffed repeatedly at the highs and they couldnt go higher, then when you saw them breaking down off the highs you knew they were toast, so you could just keep piling in too them once they starteed just nicely grinding down, setting lower highs all day and they got below VWAP.
If i remember that day properly on AMMJ and OWCP both of them put in a big parabolic move early in the day then just kept getting stufffed repeatedly at the highs and they couldnt go higher, then when you saw them breaking down off the highs you knew they were toast, so you could just keep piling in too them once they starteed just nicely grinding down, setting lower highs all day and they got below VWAP.
Of course where a lot of shortsellers get burned is the retest.
After the 3.23 high we see 1.45 and then the retest to 3.05. If you shorted at 1.45 thinking the stock was toast you are down 100% the next day.
And it can be hard psychological to build a position, because even if you are pretty sure you'll make money on it, it still shows up red in your p&l
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Notice any similarities between AMMJ and SPI?? Didnt even call this one out this morning cause i couldnt find shares anyways, but once that big red bar has happened on a parabolic move, there is just bagholders left, all the longs want to get out at the highs when they missed the chance the first time, so you have all of them selling, and all the shorts piling in. Its almost impossible for a stock to get through that high again when its already put in a 4-500% move, in such a short period of time, the only people buying with size second time around are shorts panicking.
Now there is one exception here, you still have to respect risk, if it starts busting through that it can go parabolic depending on the size of the float,but only about 1 in 10 will do this, this pattern is incredibly reliable, then just add to it on the way down.
Im currently looking for another broker who is better at locating shorts cause i lost my previous one, but this would have been a huge winner for me if i could find shares this morning.
Now there is one exception here, you still have to respect risk, if it starts busting through that it can go parabolic depending on the size of the float,but only about 1 in 10 will do this, this pattern is incredibly reliable, then just add to it on the way down.
Im currently looking for another broker who is better at locating shorts cause i lost my previous one, but this would have been a huge winner for me if i could find shares this morning.
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Took some BTU at the close, just small but i wouldnt have been able to look at myself tomorrow if it gaps up huge on the breaking up of the paris climate accord, and i didnt do something, its only 400 shares, i will sell instantly tomorrow morning if i dont get a gap up or promising price action off the open, will add over 25, or stop out below 23.80.
I just have a feeling that Trump withdrawling from paris deal will get hyped all over the news all night, and newbs will be looking to chase it tomorrow morning, and BTU was the most obvious culprit when it comes to dying coal companies in this circumstance. Its an ugly chart with a company that loses money hand over fist, but its just a shot im taking, i just dont see how its possible for it to gap down.
I just have a feeling that Trump withdrawling from paris deal will get hyped all over the news all night, and newbs will be looking to chase it tomorrow morning, and BTU was the most obvious culprit when it comes to dying coal companies in this circumstance. Its an ugly chart with a company that loses money hand over fist, but its just a shot im taking, i just dont see how its possible for it to gap down.
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Now its time for the daily round of self flagellation on the super terrific happy hour.
Once again had i just held everything till end of day i would have been better off, biggest whiff of the day was NERV, saw that thing early at like 9.15, but didnt want to take it cause i dont like the way those 5 tick stocks move, plus the daily was still in a down trend, so i avoided it, would have been a homerun, also BBY will most likely close over 65 within a weeks totally effed that one up.
This is one area where it helps to be talking to people who are better than you, and smarter than you. After bitching about how i blew it on BBY, someone else in my small private chat recommended buying calls on BBY instead of the stock, that way you can just set risk and forget it, probably would have been a way better way to trade it instead of micromanaging it, but feel pretty stupid i ate a 20 tick loss on it at the dead lows after seeing the price action today.
I absolutely traded my pnl today when it comes to BBY, didnt want to get in a big fight and eat a big loss after CIEN just handed me a big win 5 minutes into the open so just decided to forget about it eat a tiny loss, take my 1 winner spike the ball and go home, instead of building a position like i should have.
Still finished the day up 550 all on CIEN.
Anyways thats my story and im sticking too it, im mostly joking about the self flagellation but at the end of the day i feel like its an important part of the process to look at every trade you were thinking about and see where you could have done better. Feel free to ask questions ill get around to them when i can.
Cheers guys heres to hoping BTU gaps up a buck tomorrow.
P.S. funny joke i saw on twitter,
Once again had i just held everything till end of day i would have been better off, biggest whiff of the day was NERV, saw that thing early at like 9.15, but didnt want to take it cause i dont like the way those 5 tick stocks move, plus the daily was still in a down trend, so i avoided it, would have been a homerun, also BBY will most likely close over 65 within a weeks totally effed that one up.
This is one area where it helps to be talking to people who are better than you, and smarter than you. After bitching about how i blew it on BBY, someone else in my small private chat recommended buying calls on BBY instead of the stock, that way you can just set risk and forget it, probably would have been a way better way to trade it instead of micromanaging it, but feel pretty stupid i ate a 20 tick loss on it at the dead lows after seeing the price action today.
I absolutely traded my pnl today when it comes to BBY, didnt want to get in a big fight and eat a big loss after CIEN just handed me a big win 5 minutes into the open so just decided to forget about it eat a tiny loss, take my 1 winner spike the ball and go home, instead of building a position like i should have.
Still finished the day up 550 all on CIEN.
Anyways thats my story and im sticking too it, im mostly joking about the self flagellation but at the end of the day i feel like its an important part of the process to look at every trade you were thinking about and see where you could have done better. Feel free to ask questions ill get around to them when i can.
Cheers guys heres to hoping BTU gaps up a buck tomorrow.
P.S. funny joke i saw on twitter,
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Not seeing anything that stands out to me this morning, these are the kinds of days i used to kill myself cause i felt like i absolutely HAD to find a trade. In the words of "Matt Damon" from the rounders, "You cant lose what you dont put in the middle" No point laying chips down unless you see something that absolutely makes sense, you can pass no harm no foul.
Only thing im watching at this point is a big parabolic spike on the ES, i want to short that late int he afternoon if it happens thinking that anyone long is going to want to get the eff out of dodge after a hundred point bounce off the bottom.
Only thing im watching at this point is a big parabolic spike on the ES, i want to short that late int he afternoon if it happens thinking that anyone long is going to want to get the eff out of dodge after a hundred point bounce off the bottom.