The thing is like you said systems trading misses a lot of nuances in the market, there are alot of variables that can change in the market that are very hard to account for such as oil blowing up in 2015, so some systems go from just killing it day after day to losing money just as quickly when something gets out of whack with them, you tend to fine tune the system to the market you are in and variables can chane real quickly.
The Super Terrific Happy Hour
- Thread starter Max E.
- Start date
The thing is like you said systems trading misses a lot of nuances in the market, there are alot of variables that can change in the market that are very hard to account for such as oil blowing up in 2015, so some systems go from just killing it day after day to losing money just as quickly when something gets out of whack with them, you tend to fine tune the system to the market you are in and variables can chane real quickly.
I think your right in this thinking a little bit, because when you start trading and you first start making money you also feel unfallible, until you take a few major hits, you just have supreme confidence in everything you do once you first get it, also its pretty tough to get back to spending 10 -12 hours a day in front of the computer like you do when you first start, once you have no bills to pay, your house is paid off, and you can just grind out a couple k a day on any given day in three to four hours then just enjoy the rest of your day. Its just tough to get the desire back when you already have all you need, as opposed to when your a poor kid coming out of university without two nickels to rub together. Plus you get burned a couple times, and you just lose the zest for it, its not as exciting as it once was looking at charts all day.
As corny as it sounds, you talk as if you want to fly, but alas, you were born with flippers, so you're designed to swim.
You say the way you trade is stressful as hell, but I imagine holding stocks overnight for multiple days will prove to be just as stressful. At least when you're day trading, you can get out any time. These are of course all personal details, so its a matter of finding out what is right for you.
Whatever happened to your mentor? It sounds like you are no longer in touch.
Yeah you could be right, it may be more stressful that way, I still chat with my mentor all the time, hes just more of a long term trader now, just managing his money , so me and him dont have a lot in common anymore in terms of trading style, but hes still been the best coach ive ever had, probably wouldnt still be a trader if not for him.
During the day now im in a chat with 7 other traders who are a lot closer to my style of trading now, so i get a lot more advice from them, and a lot more actionable alerts, but i dont post the trades i take in here where it is one of their ideas, cause i dont think it would be right to advertise their trades, in case they want to build into something they dont want it going nuts before it gets the chance.
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Jerry: So, I finally met the mentor.
George: What's she like? Impressive?
Jerry: Oh yeah, she's dating Banya.
George: Banya?
Jerry: Yeah. I should be dating a mentor and Banya should be
setting pins in a bowling alley.
Pretty predictable move in Bitcoin, but ill post the chart along with a couple notes cause its a valuable lesson on how to short Parabolic moves.
Basically when you are shorting a parabolic move, you just wanna start nibbling on it if anything at all while its still putting in green bars, or when its still on the "front side" of the move.
But once a parabolic chart puts in its first big red bar, then you can be as aggressive with that stock as you want, this would have looked alot more obvious if you could see volume too, but once it puts in that first red bar after its gone parabolic, you are safe loading almost as much size as you want in too it because now everyone is looking to get out on any push up, and the mood has changed from people being aggressive to people looking to cover their ass, always wait for the back side of the move to short a parabolic heavily, or atleast wait for some push off the top so you have some kind of a high to play off of. Trying to top tick it is a suckers game unless you are just nibbling at it on the way up taking small size with a wide range.
Unfortunately these days alot of the time its pretty tough to find shares to short once a stock thats gone parabolic is already on the backside, because its a trade that works like 90% of the time, but thats what im looking for on those things, im always looking for the first red bar to start getting short.
Even if you only started shorting after the big red bar, back on may 8 around 1500 bitcoin gave you 4 days to think about the trade and realise it wasnt breaking down, and you could have stopped out relatively harmlessly instead of shorting in to strength and just hoping it was going to break down for you.
Basically when you are shorting a parabolic move, you just wanna start nibbling on it if anything at all while its still putting in green bars, or when its still on the "front side" of the move.
But once a parabolic chart puts in its first big red bar, then you can be as aggressive with that stock as you want, this would have looked alot more obvious if you could see volume too, but once it puts in that first red bar after its gone parabolic, you are safe loading almost as much size as you want in too it because now everyone is looking to get out on any push up, and the mood has changed from people being aggressive to people looking to cover their ass, always wait for the back side of the move to short a parabolic heavily, or atleast wait for some push off the top so you have some kind of a high to play off of. Trying to top tick it is a suckers game unless you are just nibbling at it on the way up taking small size with a wide range.
Unfortunately these days alot of the time its pretty tough to find shares to short once a stock thats gone parabolic is already on the backside, because its a trade that works like 90% of the time, but thats what im looking for on those things, im always looking for the first red bar to start getting short.
Even if you only started shorting after the big red bar, back on may 8 around 1500 bitcoin gave you 4 days to think about the trade and realise it wasnt breaking down, and you could have stopped out relatively harmlessly instead of shorting in to strength and just hoping it was going to break down for you.
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Look at these 3 charts as an example, ion every single case, once it puts in the first red day, the high holds, so once it puts in the first red day im looking to short pops with risk based off the high of the day, its a very high probability trade but can be tough to find shares.
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And here is DRYS, a stock/move i know alot of people who lost six figures on, so many people were loaded to the gills around 50, and didnt wait for the first big red bar, but even if you miss it at 50, and you get the worst possible entry, and only took it at 20, it was still a 95% gain if you held on too it.
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Of course where a lot of shortsellers get burned is the retest.
After the 3.23 high we see 1.45 and then the retest to 3.05. If you shorted at 1.45 thinking the stock was toast you are down 100% the next day.
And it can be hard psychological to build a position, because even if you are pretty sure you'll make money on it, it still shows up red in your p&l
Of course where a lot of shortsellers get burned is the retest.
After the 3.23 high we see 1.45 and then the retest to 3.05. If you shorted at 1.45 thinking the stock was toast you are down 100% the next day.
And it can be hard psychological to build a position, because even if you are pretty sure you'll make money on it, it still shows up red in your p&l