The student is ready
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Trade #8: My reasons for taking this trade are that the stock is in an uptrend on the monthly chart and on the daily chart it is forming a small bullish looking trading range. This is about as far as I got in my analysis when I entered the trade. Now that I am writing up my observations in more detail, the stock doesn’t look so bullish to me for the following reasons. First, on the monthly chart it is trading right at the all time high formed in 2007. In addition the move up from the 2009 lows formed an ascending wedge and price is currently at the upper channel line. As a result there is a confluence of resistance on the monthly chart at this level. In addition, on the daily chart there was a sharp selloff in early January and the subsequent rise in price was much weaker. Moreover, the price behavior on the daily chart since December has formed a nice head and shoulder topping pattern. So, what would you do in this situation? For me, my biggest trading issue is second guessing myself shortly after I enter a trade. By examining a number of my past trades I’ve seen however that when I ignore my initial instinct for entering a trade and exit shortly afterward that the trade ends up going in the direction I originally thought it would more often than not. So with this trade, I am going to do the opposite of what I usually do and instead manage it based on my original plan. I am risking less than 1% of my portfolio on this stock.
Instrument: SWHC (US Stock)
Timeframe: Daily
Setup: Pullback
Entry Price: $23.92
Initial Stop Price: $22.94
Trade Type: Swing
Initial Target: $27.30
Instrument: SWHC (US Stock)
Timeframe: Daily
Setup: Pullback
Entry Price: $23.92
Initial Stop Price: $22.94
Trade Type: Swing
Initial Target: $27.30
Trade #9: My reasons for taking this trade are that the stock has been in a downtrend on the weekly chart since the middle of 2014. On the daily chart the price has formed a clear downtrend channel over the past four or five months and is now trading at the top of the channel. The top of the channel also coincides with the 40 day EMA. The stock has made two weak attempts to pullback to this resistance level and appears that it will fail and plunge toward the lower channel line. I am risking less than 1% of my portfolio on this stock.
Instrument: BHI (US Stock)
Timeframe: Daily
Setup: Pullback
Entry Price: $42.13
Initial Stop Price: $43.72
Trade Type: Swing
Initial Target: $37.57
Instrument: BHI (US Stock)
Timeframe: Daily
Setup: Pullback
Entry Price: $42.13
Initial Stop Price: $43.72
Trade Type: Swing
Initial Target: $37.57
There is so much gold in that statement!
Maybe it's not about the Method?
It continues to fascinate me as well. But it's more of an "AHA" and a reminder for me to remember the "actual" game that we are playing.
-JS
Not only that, cause everyone is looking for the holy grail entry. Some guy will say his system is 80 percent. But you don't know the rest of the story. You might be getting in at roughly the same spot. The rest is stops and targets and when to ditch a dog. Cutting a trade that's not performing might be just as important. And holding on when the short term traders are already out. A lot is knowing when the balance of power has tipped, and staying with it till it changes. I think they call that a trend.
I do not use any indicators apart from volume by price and horizontal lines, and can trade as good as anyone else, once I put my mind to it
In relation to K.I.S.S, I have to disagree with you there, as, I was shown something by another trader some years ago, that, was so simple I did not actually believe it at first, and dismissed it because "I knew so much"
As you rightly say, just because one person does not know something, in no way means that others do not know!
What intrigues me about those who post on these sites, is that very few post actual charts about what they speak. I have no problem posting charts, as I know not one person will see what I see, as, it is so simple one will never see it unless it is pointed out, like it was to me some years ago, and, all the indicators under the sun will not show it to you, no matter what!
J_S
View attachment 162302
I used to Post charts for others to view? But now, I just lack the motivation. I see enough of other peoples stuff and lack the desire to get into boring discussions with the many Guru types. Your bar chart on the far right is as close to what I use now, except for the lack of a 200 ma + I only use bar charts, 5 and 30. In the past I've used other indicators like the Bands and some others, but now my understanding has outgrown there usefulness.
Just Keep it as simple as possible and make sure you have solid money management.
As mentioned, there is no right or wrong way, but like everything else in life, some ways are better than others.
Most overestimate the way they use, thinking that what they know is an "edge", whereas in reality it is no more than proper money management playing out with good timing.
This means that timing is crucial to your results, and should therefore be your main focus when trading. Different objectives, as in profit targets, require different timing techniques, so using the same indicators across all timeframes is not a good idea, as will be clearly shown by your results.
From what I have seen, the best way for timing across all timeframes, is to strip your charts bare, and learn to see what the formations can reveal, as if you do not concentrate on the formations you will not see them, and anything that distracts your attention from this crucial task, should be booted out the door and never left back inside the house.
Once you see what is there, you will never have to backtest anything, as you will clearly see the difference between the 3 main stages of price movement, which if you do not know, you should definitely not be risking your money trading.
I did say not one person would see what I see in the charts, and that wil never change, for when you do come across information of real value, you do not share it with just anybody, which is commons sense. I also gave my word not to share with anyone else, except close family member, and I always keep my word. The reason I am telling you this, is so you know that some ways are much better than others, and you will never find such ways published in any books, for who in their right mind would do that, only a fool!
J_S
Most overestimate the way they use, thinking that what they know is an "edge", whereas in reality it is no more than proper money management playing out with good timing.
This means that timing is crucial to your results, and should therefore be your main focus when trading. Different objectives, as in profit targets, require different timing techniques, so using the same indicators across all timeframes is not a good idea, as will be clearly shown by your results.
From what I have seen, the best way for timing across all timeframes, is to strip your charts bare, and learn to see what the formations can reveal, as if you do not concentrate on the formations you will not see them, and anything that distracts your attention from this crucial task, should be booted out the door and never left back inside the house.
Once you see what is there, you will never have to backtest anything, as you will clearly see the difference between the 3 main stages of price movement, which if you do not know, you should definitely not be risking your money trading.
I did say not one person would see what I see in the charts, and that wil never change, for when you do come across information of real value, you do not share it with just anybody, which is commons sense. I also gave my word not to share with anyone else, except close family member, and I always keep my word. The reason I am telling you this, is so you know that some ways are much better than others, and you will never find such ways published in any books, for who in their right mind would do that, only a fool!
J_S
As mentioned, there is no right or wrong way, ( "over time you will see that there really is", but you shouldn't worry about it, when your way is working for you)
But like everything else in life, some ways are better than others (this statement is true).
People seek their own level of perfection. Do you want a 90+% Hit rate? Or are you just gunning for Home Runs? Home Runs for me are way too expensive, too many stop outs.* the hits are a lot of work, but fun, and instant gratification is good for the soul. Over time hits accumulate to home run value$
I eat like a bird. 1 seed at a time and at the end of the day, I have a full belly.
***People seek their own level of perfection***
Most overestimate the way they use, thinking that what they know is an "edge", whereas in reality it is no more than proper money management playing out with good timing.
(Money management by itself can't collect revenue)-(Money management combined with knowledge and action is golden). “This is all the symmetry a person needs”. If one part is missing, it’s a big fat Zero!
From what I have seen, the best way for timing across all timeframes, is to strip your charts bare, and learn to see what the formations can reveal, as if you do not concentrate on the formations you will not see them, and anything that distracts your attention from this crucial task, should be booted out the door and never left back inside the house.
(Screen clutter is and will continue to be the death of many)!
Back in the 80's, on the CBOT grain floor. This Pit Trader said to me for every shipwreck laying at the bottom of the sea, theirs a chartist lying next to it.
This brings back memories.“The thunderous noise was reverberating in all directions.” The sounds coming from inside the pits were much more intense; odors of alcohol mixed with body odor permeated the humid air. The heat generated from the volume of silhouettes, churning and pushing against each other was immense. Spit spraying in all directions, the sea of waving hands holding cards and pens in the air. Oh yes, I left out wet Farts and being stabbed by pens, jabbed eyes and a few bloody lips and noses.
Wow! I just realized they weren’t holding any colored pencils, charts, or rulers.
Eat your heart out TA guys!
Once you see what is there, you will never have to back-test anything, as you will clearly see the difference between the 3 main stages of price movement, which if you do not know, you should definitely not be risking your money trading.
(My 100,000+ hours of screen time is all the knowledge and back testing I need).
I did say not one person would see what I see in the charts),and that will never change, for (when you do come across information of real value, you do not share it with just anybody, which is commons sense.
Maybe not 100% but I'm confident that I can). Many traders place live trades on ET and I can see their mistakes and there methods. There are only so many possible combinations of TA reasons for making a trade and I’m quite certain I can find what they are using. Some will hide behind made up words like algorithms and edges, but for me it’s always ah, “there you are” moment!). “It’s just for fun” and not data mining. They are motivated by their own reasons.
Many people on ET have the Neanderthal gene and lack creativity and look for free ideas and some even write programs for gain. but ya know what? All that data mining and stealing is a waste of time. It’s right there in front of your nose. One day it becomes that Eureka moment, and you first say, what! no way!! that can’t be!! Nah, that isn't right! and here it comes, Fuck!! shit!! I'm an idiot! Then next few days your head is in shock and ringing). (The best part is that soulful uplifting feeling with Choir music in the back ground)!
I also gave my word not to share with anyone else, except (close family member), and I always keep my word. The reason I am telling you this, is so you know that some ways are much better than others, and (you will never find such ways published in any books, for who in their right mind would do that, only a fool)!
(Agree)! There's no reason to stop the money flow).
Z4, if you can see what I see in the charts, without being told, then I take my hat off to you, for I will honestly say I would not have seen it in a million years, and even when showed, it took ages for me to believe it, as I dismissed it outright because it was so simple!
It took me about 2 years to really see it what for what it is, as it is amazing how the text book rubbish can stick in your head, a bit like propaganda I suppose
Nice to see someone with a bit of common sense
J_S
It took me about 2 years to really see it what for what it is, as it is amazing how the text book rubbish can stick in your head, a bit like propaganda I suppose
Nice to see someone with a bit of common sense
J_S
The tell all is in your entry, if you don't post real time than I don't see but text books are ok as long as they aren't selling voodoo systems and are just explaining how indicator's work.Z4, if you can see what I see in the charts, without being told, then I take my hat off to you, for I will honestly say I would not have seen it in a million years, and even when showed, it took ages for me to believe it, as I dismissed it outright because it was so simple!
It took me about 2 years to really see it what for what it is, as it is amazing how the text book rubbish can stick in your head, a bit like propaganda I suppose
Nice to see someone with a bit of common sense
J_S