The stock which you intend to keep your entire life.

Google - Search will be needed for longer than my lifetime. Google owns search.

Baidu - Owns search in Asia. They will protect this company and and block competition forever and with China's growth has to be a lifetime play.

Amazon - I doubt this company will see a genuine threat in my lifetime with the lead it has on the competition.

Berkshire Hathaway - but the 2 primary managers are getting on so there is long term risk of this stock underperforming.

Macquarie Bank - Doesn't know how to be 2nd. Now that it has more exposure and recognition in international markets it will most likely become number one investment bank in the world. It has a culture built over many decades which is very unlikely to erode through malpractice or poor management during my lifetime. That would be my banking play.

I don't like eBay or FB. eBay is a fragmented pile of shit that is in danger from Amazon or disruptive technology like blockchains. I think FB is at risk of disruptive technology also.

IBM and Apple are my other considerations but I need to do a bit more research on them. Apple needs to deliver big under Cook for me to be confident and IBM I need to research what they've been up.

Software vendors like Microsoft. Oracle looks risky long term and I dont know enough about that market.
 
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yiehom said:
Amazing nobody else mentioned the masters.
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If I haven't own it, I won't buy it now: It is getting so big, owning it is like indexing, except with an element of leverage (invest using OPM - its insurance floats), like investing with margins. And, the two running it are 87 and 93 years old!
 
Sure, by Graham/Buffet standards, this is no time to buy, as you would find it difficult to pick good stocks with acceptable security margin.

ironchef said:
If I haven't own it, I won't buy it now: It is getting so big, owning it is like indexing, except with an element of leverage (invest using OPM - its insurance floats), like investing with margins. And, the two running it are 87 and 93 years old!
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The view of an old trader. The same things were said about US Steel and General Motors in the 1960's (for the younger crowd, GM went bankrupt in 2009, today the same name is used for a new company).

All things are impermanent. There is no single company that I would ever blindly trust for life. Scandal, lies, fraud, competition, new invention, and changes in government regulation can make the longest lasting stalwart turn to dust.

There are certainly some that I expect to hold for many years, but I still keep both eyes open on their circumstances, and am willing to adjust as required.

Even in the world of ETF's, where a simple index should last far longer than me, one can never be absolutely sure of the company administering the ETF, and of course government regulation can change the circumstances overnight.
 
lovethetrade said:
...

Macquarie Bank - Doesn't know how to be 2nd. Now that it has more exposure and recognition in international markets it will most likely become number one investment bank in the world. It has a culture built over many decades which is very unlikely to erode through malpractice or poor management during my lifetime. That would be my banking play...
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See Wells Fargo as an example of a can't miss big bank "losing their way".

As for those FANGS or future fangs to come, IMO no company is above being taken down - quickly.
 
Truth_ said:
The view of an old trader. The same things were said about US Steel and General Motors in the 1960's (for the younger crowd, GM went bankrupt in 2009, today the same name is used for a new company).

All things are impermanent. There is no single company that I would ever blindly trust for life. Scandal, lies, fraud, competition, new invention, and changes in government regulation can make the longest lasting stalwart turn to dust.

There are certainly some that I expect to hold for many years, but I still keep both eyes open on their circumstances, and am willing to adjust as required.

Even in the world of ETF's, where a simple index should last far longer than me, one can never be absolutely sure of the company administering the ETF, and of course government regulation can change the circumstances overnight.
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You have some good points. But the company administering the ETF is not a risk.
 
SunTrader said:
See Wells Fargo as an example of a can't miss big bank "losing their way".

As for those FANGS or future fangs to come, IMO no company is above being taken down - quickly.
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Australian banks are ultra prudent and conservative. The Australian banking system and regulatory framework doesn't have the inherent vulnerabilities that the US has (or had prior to the GFC).

Wells Fargo was not a bank that couldn't lose it's way although it's probably bank that won't ever get into too much trouble. WF and BOA are too important to US retail banking and the economy.

Macquarie Bank is bulletproof.
 
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