The Stock Market Key

[riskfreetrading]

If people were to ask you how do you predict stock market prices, how would you answer the question?

I am asking because a number of my blog readers have been sending emails containing the above question, particularly after the post of June 11 at 3:ishPM warning the readers of a downmove.

I do not intend to share the details which are based on a variety of proprietary models and theoretical results, but I thought to share some general principles.

One of the principles behind one of the models/results may appear as a contradiction: it is based on the hypothesis that the market is efficient!

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from riskfreetrading:
-----how would you answer the question?
-----a number of my blog readers.....
-----the details which are based on a variety of proprietary models and theoretical results.....
-----the market is efficient!

....the blind leading the blind.

 

[riskfreetrading]

LOL!

They will not believe me if I were to explain it that way, as they know it is not true (with a probability of almost 1) based on their following of the blog posts.

 

[nazzdack]

Quote from riskfreetrading:
They will not believe me if I were to explain it that way, as they know it is not true.....

Fiction and myth are more palatable than the "truth".

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

If people were to ask you how do you predict stock market prices, how would you answer the question?

I am asking because a number of my blog readers have been sending emails containing the above question, particularly after the post of June 11 at 3:ishPM warning the readers of a downmove.

I do not intend to share the details which are based on a variety of proprietary models and theoretical results, but I thought to share some general principles.

One of the principles behind one of the models/results may appear as a contradiction: it is based on the hypothesis that the market is efficient!

And you thought this would be a clever disguise in promoting your blog?

 

[monty21]

Have them read fooled by randomness... (no offense intended though)

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

If people were to ask you how do you predict stock market prices, how would you answer the question?

Yes, I do in a way but sorry, I'm not going to tell you how.

Just a hint: you do not and cannot predict anything directly because mortal humans have no such capacity due to their finitude.

What you do is calculating probabilities of price moves . Now, this is enough for a freebie...For more information, contact me and get prepared to pay top $.

Lol

 

[riskfreetrading]

Original answers so far. Keep them coming my friends! Thanks.

 

[riskfreetrading]

Quote from intradaybill:


What you do is calculating probabilities of price moves .

Actually everything I have seen in published books/journals/etc make a fundamental mistake in figuring out the relevent probs

In some cases you have to multiply by two, and in other cases you have to divide by two to get the real numbers.

:

. Now, this is enough for a freebie...For more information, contact me and get prepared to pay top $.

Lol

PS: Could you guys figure out some of the mistakes I am alluding to?