The Stochastic Indicator

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i posted my trade log that had LOTS of losses...and this morning i got smoked a few times...a breakdown of what people did this morning would be interesting...when i get a sec i will post my morning...toughest morning i can honestly remember, the 5m bars we pretty wide and was getting whipped pretty good.

i do agree that a discussion on the problems spots would be helpful b/c the winners are straightforward and take care of themselves, but how to handle a difficult morning would be great (like today imo). on the same token when people are having trouble/losing would be great to try and figure out if we are wrong or those things trades happen.

fyi: my average loss over the course of many weeks is about 1.25...ranging from 0.25 to 3.00 on any one trade.

also...i don't think you can make it justtrading rockets...i would use them just to learn and then add additional trades...i didn't start moving up until i added other trades...again just my opinion.
 
I have picked off a few very nice ones. 8pts is my best so far, with a few in the 4-6pt range (over the last two weeks), and I'd say I exited half of those on the 'away' side of the channel, and it would have been perfect for a reverse into the consolidation. I get into trouble on short (timewise) rockets (1.5-2pts) that fail and very briefly become rockets again. Then I get whipsawed and lose discipline, and things get ugly. Something's wrong with the way I read volume, and I think I've been paying too much attention to the 1m.

I tried to get ahead of myself this morning with the failed rocket, and tried to ride the iceberg, thinking that point 3 couldn't be very far away. Alas it was, and I chickened out with a 3pt loss. Ugh.

--laz
 
I am a beginner and have been there longer than I care to admit (lol). Many times I have exited too early only to see the trend continue 'nicely' on a slower time frame. This translates to severe retraces on the current time frame I am viewing. It is very frustrating to exit at a loss only to see the trend continue eventually. I use to nickname my self "the butcher of trends". Yesterday I nickel and dimmed the morning 30 min tape. I barely broke even and yet the trend was very profitable, stepping back and viewing a bigger horizon.

What are my exit rule(s), specifically? I am still blind as to when a trend is ending as compared to a severe retrace and next leg up, translating to a nice tape on a slower time frame. Something I am trying to articulate so I can have some Q&A about it later on.


To me, 'KISS' does not necessarily translate to easy. Some of the most simple concepts are very hard(imo) to adhere to.


This morning I started with two bad trades and am recouping some of my losses currently with a re-entry around 11:00am ish…..

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First trade:
Prelude
5min
- opening ~ flat
- sync around 9:40 am
- opening vol barely 10k/5m
- macd entwine
- hist sig lvl void
- stocs rkt status

Entry: 9:42 am
1 min
- b.o.(p,m,v)
- broke immediate support
- with longer price bar
- accompanied by nice >5 k vol spike
- macd div away, > |0.6|
Exit: 9:47, stopped out net:-1.25 pts
( I’m okay with this one)

Entry: 9:59 am
1 min
- b.o. in price but
a) did not see a volume spike accompany it
b) macd barely made |0.5||
Exit: 10:01, scratch net: -1.25 pts
( this was too aggressive, dumb on my part,trigger happy)

(Currently in at 11:05, potential pt formation with vol du, on the 5m)
----------------------------------------------------------------

My own two cents here.
 
I hate to be bleak, but to be honest, I've never made more than 1 point on any rocket. I keep trying, but the harder I try, the worser I get.

The problem comes in when you wash out early on the good trades. I wash out early based on my best understanding of the nuances that Jack has provided. Now, if I just stick with being mechanical, that would keep me in the good trades, but at the same time lose even more on the bad trades.

For discipline sake I am taking only rocket trades, but frankly, don't see much point in it. Every entry is accompanied by a strong sense of certainty that I'm getting in at an extreme, and I end up being right.

The thing is, in my previous (and equally unsuccesful method) I was doing pretty much the opposite of rocket trades (that is, anticapating the rocket failure) and that didn't seem to "work" either.

This post is not meant as an indictment of what Jack is teaching. It's an observation that many of us are missing some significant piece of the puzzle, and it's probably right under our collective noses.
 
here is one thing that can allow you to get in earlier than the 75 on the stoch...if macd is above +.40 enter when the stoch crosses the 50....especially when a previous trend line has just been broken.

for example...look today at 14:30...trend line b/d and stoch reads (29,41) -0.41 10759...short signal...new short trend beginning...this trade eventually enters the rocket territory and you get a much better entry.

hope this helps.

3:07 edit: this turns into a rocket that fails...so you would have been able to minimize your risk better.
 
Quote from dawg:

so rocket fails...reverse...i used 970.75 as exit/reversal....let's see what happpens...man this day is brutal.
More...

Brutal is an understatement. Over the past few weeks I"ve taken 14 rockets, best gain is 1/2 point, worst loss 3 points, which was this latest rocket, which I held onto a bit more than I should have. Figured I've just been bailing too soon, apparanetly not.

I'd swear to god every rocket I find on paper/simulated works like a charm. Every one with real money... well you get the story.
 
Quote from dawg:

so rocket fails...reverse...i used 970.75 as exit/reversal....let's see what happpens...man this day is brutal.
More...


Hi dawg,

What was your line of thinking that made you choose "reverse" over exit? And why at that price? These seem to be very key questions for me when trying to learn this system.

Thanks...
 
ok when i am in a rocket i wait for the first close above 25 on the fast stoch...so in this case 14:55 s(27,20)...so i look to reverse .50 to .75 above the high of that bar. i do this to try and avoid being whipped out of the trade...i want to give rockets as much room as possible.

also this rocket failed and i always want to reverse out of failed rockets.

also you had a macd xo on the faster fractal.

you could also wait for the macd xo on the 5m...or for the stoch to xo 50...many different ways....just need to find what you are comfortable with.

hope this helps.
 
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